Uncertainty Management in Acquisitions: What Scenario Analysis Could Offer

This study answers to How scenario analysis could help acquiring companies to reduce uncertainty in the acquisition process? It is due to the mismatch between academic world’s caveat emptor and business world’s eagerness to pursue acquisitions that motivated this study. Acquisitions are as popular as ever, thus, managing the uncertainty surrounding these transactions is relevant. This study creates a generic theoretical model with a strategy-level scope. Thus, the study does not discuss nor does it seek answers to operational issues related in both fields. This study is explorative and constructivist in nature. It discusses briefly the concepts and relatedness of risk and uncertainty and establishes a hierarchy between these two: Risks being a “sub-section” of uncertainty, although not with clear boundaries. Acquisition theory follows the process view that understands acquisitions as a process with various levels – some strategic, some operational. Scenario analysis is presented as tool for management to enrich their strategic discussion and understand their future options. The empirical data collection is done through interviewing. The results are reflected on literature on strategic management, scenario literature, and on a consultancy’s report picturing firm’s strategies in accordance with their acquisition processes. The study has an abductive approach as it tries to combine multiple views and generates discussion between literature review, interviews, the report, and second round of literature. The model suggests three propositions: First, at the strategic decision making level, when the decision whether or not to pursue an acquisition growth strategy has been made, it provides firms new data and enriches the strategic discussion. Second, when the acquisition strategy has been created, it can be applied as a tool to measure possible acquisition targets against the backdrop of the first set of scenarios. Third, due to the scenario analysis’ requirement to include people with various backgrounds and from multiple levels of the corporate hierarchy, it could help managers to avoid biases stemming from hubris.

Framing the Gas Market Uncertainty in Russian Gas Export Policy: The Role of Underlying Ideas

Gas suppliers including Russia are facing the gas market uncertainty caused by the fast growing development of shale gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Given that Russia is one of the key energy suppliers in the world, Russian energy policy is intensively studied. However, the majority of the researches focus on the conventional gas sector and very few focus on the unconventional gas sector such as shale gas and LNG. In this light, this thesis aims at examining how the gas market uncertainty is framed in Russian gas export policy as well as discover how the interaction between underlying ideas and the policy frames informs policymaking. After analyzing Russian official documents, three policy frames were identified: shale gas—competition frame, LNG—cooperation frame and cooperation—competition frame. The shale gas—competition frame emphasizes the confrontation with the shale revolution in the USA. The LNG—cooperation frame rests on the idea of building cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region by the LNG trade. The cooperation—competition frame describes the oscillating Russia-EU relationship. Both the economic and ecological dimensions in the policy environment enable these three policy frames. However, the cooperation frame is constrained by the physical dimension since Russia has only one LNG facility in use. The institutional dimension underpins the idea of competition in the cooperation—competition frame. The reason is because of the divergent perspectives between Russia and the EU regarding regulations and market liberalizations. In sum, the result is different from the traditional geopolitical frame which depicts Russia as an energy superpower. Instead, this thesis suggests that Russia is shifting the priority from political interests to business interests in Russian gas export policy, particularly in the domain of shale gas and LNG.