Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

A recent change in size distribution of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) in the western part of the Gulf of Finland

Markus Öst & Mikael Kilpi

Effects of cage size and obstructed view from cage on use of resting platforms by farmed silver foxes

Selostus: Häkin koon ja häkissä olevien näköesteiden vaikutus tarhattujen hopeakettujen makuuhyllyn käyttöön

Relationship between Megastigmus suspectus borr.size and Abies alba mill.seed size

Summary

Effects of group size and early handling on some behavioural and physiological welfare parameters in farmed blue foxes

Selostus: Ryhmäkoon ja varhaisen käsittelyn vaikutus tarhattujen sinikettujen hyvinvointiin

Effects of group size and space allocation on physiological, behavioural and production-related welfare parameters in farmed silver fox cubs

Selostus: Ryhmäkoon ja käytössä olevan tilan vaikutus tarhattujen hopeakettupentujen hyvinvointiin

Allocation of above-ground growth in Pinus sylvestris - impacts of tree size and competition

Abstract