Ydinvoimalan paineakun mallinnus

Tässä työssä on käytetty VTT:n ja Fortumin kehittämääAPROS simulaatio-ohjelmistoa vesi-ilma -täytteisen paineakun käyttäytymisen tutkimiseen. Tavoitteena oli tarkastella APROSin paineakkumallin käyttäytymistä alhaisessa lämpötilassa käyttäen 6-yhtälömallia sekä rakentaa vaihtoehtoiseksi laskentamenetelmäksi kaksi analyyttistä laskentamallia korvaamaan APROSin sisäinen laskenta. Kyseiset analyyttiset mallit ovat isentrooppinen ja isoterminen ja ne on rakennettu kokonaan käyttäen APROSin omia moduuleja. Työ sisältää APROSin version 5.06 sekä työn aikana kehitetyn kehitysversion vertailut eri alkulämpötiloista alkaneissa paisunnoissa, vertailun Pactelin purkaus¬kokeesta saadulla massavirralla sekä osion, jossa analyyttiset mallit on yhdistetty kokonaiseen Pactelin APROS-malliin. Myös purkauksen kulkeutumista primääripiirissä on tarkasteltu. Simulaatiot vahvistavat, että versiolla 5.06 on vaikeuksia paineen laskennassa, kun paisunnan alkulämpötila on alle 30 ºC. Kehitysversiossa painekäyttäytyminen on selvästi parantunut, mutta versio kärsii ongelmista, jotka liittyvät kaasun lämpötilan painumiseen APROSin sisäisten rajoitusten alapuolelleja tätä kautta ongelmiin materiaali¬ominaisuuksien ennustamisessa. Tämän johdosta APROSin kehitysversio päätyy erilaisiin tuloksiin myös tilanteissa, joissa alkuperäinen 5.06 ei kärsi alhaisen lämpötilan ongelmista. Analyyttisistä malleista isentrooppinen malli päätyy antamaan säännönmukaisesti muita malleja ja versioita alempia paineita. Isoterminen malli sen sijaan näyttää päätyvän version 5.06 kanssa melko samankaltaisiin tuloksiin. On kuitenkin muistettava, että kummatkin analyyttiset mallit olettavat kaasun olevan kuivaa ja jättävät massasiirron faasien välillä kokonaan huomiotta.

Modelling of ultrasound assisted mixing in Newtonian and non-Newtonian liquids

The purpose of this work is to obtain a better understanding of behaviour of possible ultrasound appliance on fluid media mixing. The research is done in the regard to Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids. The process of ultrasound appliance on liquids is modelled in COMSOL Multiphysics software. The influence of ultrasound using is introduced as waveform equation. Turbulence modelling is fulfilled by the k-ε model in Newtonian fluid. The modeling of ultrasound assisted mixing in non-Newtonian fluids is based on the power law. To verify modelling results two practical methods are used: Particle Image Velocimetry and measurements of mixing time. Particle Image Velocimetry allows capturing of velocity flow field continuously and presents detailed depiction of liquid dynamics. The second way of verification is the comparison of mixing time of homogeneity. Experimentally achievement of mixing time is done by conductivity measurements. In modelling part mixing time is achieved by special module of COMSOL Multiphysics – the transport of diluted species. Both practical and modelling parts show similar radial mechanism of fluid flow under ultrasound appliance – from the horn tip fluid moves to the bottom and along the walls goes back. Velocity profiles are similar in modelling and experimental part in the case of Newtonian fluid. In the case of non-Newtonian fluid velocity profiles do not agree. The development track of ultrasound-assisted mixing modelling is presented in the thesis.

Techno-Economic Assessment of LNG and Diesel Production and Global Trading Based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants and PtG, GtL and PtL Technologies

With growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid transportation fuels, and concerns about climate change and causes of greenhouse gas emissions, this master’s thesis introduces a new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective fundamental business cases based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are composed of renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-gas (PtG), gas-to-liquids (GtL) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel are drop-in fuels to the current energy system and can be traded everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG), hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL), GtL and LNG value chain are performed based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG produced in Patagonia, as the study case, is competitive with conventional LNG in Japan for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 87 - 145 USD/barrel (20 – 26 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and the proposed RE-diesel is competitive with conventional diesel in the European Union (EU) for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive with conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for many countries to satisfy their fuel demand locally. It is also a specific business case for countries with excellent solar and wind resources to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, when the decrease in production cost is considerably more than the shipping cost. This is a unique opportunity to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons are getting tighter.

Ydinvoimalaitoksen turbiinilaitoksen toiminnan ja kunnonvalvonnan nykytilan kuvaus ja kehittämismahdollisuuksien kartoitus sekä toteutus ja kannattavuusarviointi

Työssä selvitettiin Olkiluodon ydinvoimalaitoksen prosessiseurannassa nykyisin käytössä olevia järjestelmiä sekä tutkittiin prosessisimulointiohjelman käyttömahdollisuuksia osana prosessiseurantaa. Ensisijaisesti tutkittiin kuinka hyvin simulointimalli soveltuu pienien tehopoikkeamien havainnoimiseen. Simulointimalli rakennettiin Endat Oy:n kehittämällä Prosim-simulointiohjelmalla. Simulointimalli on tehty kahdelle eri prosessille. Erilliset mallit rakennettiin sekä vuoden 2003 vuosihuoltoa edeltäneelle prosessille, että vuosihuollossa lauhteen esilämmityksen osalta muutetulle prosessille. Simulointimallien toimintaa käytännössä testattiin suorittamalla simulointiajoja muutamilla prosessin muutostilanteilla ja vertailemalla muutostilanteiden mittapistedataa simulointiohjelman laskemiin tuloksiin. Simulointimallin suurimmat poikkeamat mittapistedataan verrattuna todettiin turbiinilaitoksen korkeapainepuolella sekä lauhduttimessa. Käytännössä havaittiin, että nämä poikkeamat hankaloittavat simulointiohjelman käyttöä käytönvalvonnan työkaluna, eikä sen käytöstä näin ollen saada varsinaista lisäarvoa.

Sähköä ja lämpöä tuottavien maakaasukäyttöisten pienvoimalaitosten kannattavuus Turengissa

Diplomityössä tutkitaan sähkön ja lämmön yhteistuotannon kannattavuutta Turengin nykyisen lämmöntuotannon yhteydessä. Tavoitteena on löytää taloudellisesti kilpailukykyiset tuotantovaihtoehdot Turengin energiahuollon kehittämisessä. Ensimmäisenä tarkasteltarkastellaan voimalaitoksen nykyiseen tuotantolaitteistoon kuuluvan vastapainehöyryturbiinin käyttöönoton mahdollisuuksia. Tämän jälkeen suoritetaan kannattavuuslaskelmat neljälle vaihtoehtoiselle investointitapaukselle. Voimalaitosinvestoinnit kohdistuvat kaasumoottori- ja kaasuturbiinivoimalaitoksiin, joilla tuotetaan sähköä, kaukolämpöä ja eräissä tapauksissa myös prosessihöyryä. Voimalaitosten nettosähkötehot ovat neljästä yhdeksään megawattia. Voimalaitosyksiköiden energiantuotanto määritetään Turengin lämpökuormien perusteella. Tuotannon määrityksessä apuna käytetään WinTEHO –ohjelmistoa, johon luodaan tarvittavat energiatiedostot. Kannattavuuslaskelmat suoritetaan vertaamalla investointivaihtoehtojen aiheuttamia vuotuisia kassavirtoja nykyisen tuotannon mukaisiin kassavirtoihin. Kassavirtalaskelmasta saadaan kullekin vaihtoehdolle nettonykyarvo, sisäinen korko ja takaisinmaksuaika. Tarkastelun tuloksena saatiin, että voimalaitosvaihtoehdoista kannattavin on investointi yhteen kaasumoottoriin, jolla tuotetaan sähkön lisäksi vain kaukolämpöä. Alhaisilla sähkön hinnoilla kaasuturbiinivaihtoehdot ovat suunnilleen yhtä kannattavia. Investointien nykyarvo valitulla korkokannalla on positiivinen, kun sähkön markkinahinnan keskiarvo tuotantokaudella ylittää likimain tason 130 mk/MWh. Nykyisillä markkinahinnoilla investoinnit eivät ole kannattavia. Investoiminen uuteen kaasumoottoriin tai -turbiiniin osoittautui kannattavammaksi kuin sähkön tuotannon aloittaminen laitoksen nykyisellä höyryturbiinilla. Merkittävin syy tähän oli höyryturbiinituotannon korkeat henkilöstökustannukset. Tehty selvitys tukee vallitsevaa käsitystä, että nykytekniikalla sähkön ja lämmön yhteistuotanto on taloudellisesti kilpailukykyistä myös pienessä kokoluokassa.

Magnetic and transport properties of II-V diluted magnetic semiconductors doped with manganese and nickel

This thesis is devoted to investigations of three typical representatives of the II-V diluted magnetic semiconductors, Zn1-xMnxAs2, (Zn1-xMnx)3As2 and p-CdSb:Ni. When this work started the family of the II-V semiconductors was presented by only the compounds belonging to the subgroup II3-V2, as (Zn1-xMnx)3As2, whereas the rest of the materials mentioned above were not investigated at all. Pronounced low-field magnetic irreversibility, accompanied with a ferromagnetic transition, are observed in Zn1-xMnxAs2 and (Zn1-xMnx)3As2 near 300 K. These features give evidence for presence of MnAs nanosize magnetic clusters, responsible for frustrated ground magnetic state. In addition, (Zn1-xMnx)3As2 demonstrates large paramagnetic response due to considerable amount of single Mn ions and small antiferromagnetic clusters. Similar paramagnetic system existing in Zn1-xMnxAs2 is much weaker. Distinct low-field magnetic irreversibility, accompanied with a rapid saturation of the magnetization with increasing magnetic field, is observed near the room temperature in p- CdSb:Ni, as well. Such behavior is connected to the frustrated magnetic state, determined by Ni-rich magnetic Ni1-xSbx nanoclusters. Their large non-sphericity and preferable orientations are responsible for strong anisotropy of the coercivity and saturation magnetization of p- CdSb:Ni. Parameters of the Ni1-xSbx nanoclusters are estimated. Low-temperature resistivity of p-CdSb:Ni is governed by a hopping mechanism of charge transfer. The variable-range hopping conductivity, observed in zero magnetic field, demonstrates a tendency of transformation into the nearest-neighbor hopping conductivity in non-zero magnetic filed. The Hall effect in p-CdSb:Ni exhibits presence of a positive normal and a negative anomalous contributions to the Hall resistivity. The normal Hall coefficient is governed mainly by holes activated into the valence band, whereas the anomalous Hall effect, attributable to the Ni1-xSbx nanoclusters with ferromagnetically ordered internal spins, exhibits a low-temperature power-law resistivity scaling.

Sarasuon hiilikaasudynamiikka muuttuvissa kosteusolosuhteissa

Seloste väitöskirjasta: Fen ecosystem carbon gas dynamics in changing hydrological conditions. Dissertationes Forestales 67.

Keskitetyn lämmöntuotannon kehittämismahdollisuudet Lahden seudulla ilmastonmuutoksen näkökulmasta

Tämä diplomityö on tehty Aalto yliopiston Teknillisen korkeakoulun Lahden keskuksen IMMU-hankkeeseen. Teoriaosassa tarkastellaan kaukolämmityksen nykytilannetta ja sen tulevai-suuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Työssä on tarkasteltu Lahti Energia Oy:n Kymijärven voimalaitosalueen kehittämismahdollisuuksia vuosina 2012 ja 2016. Vertailukohtana käytetään nykytilannetta vuoden 2009 tiedoilla. Työssä on selvitetty voimalaitosalueen elinkaaren aikaisia kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä ja niiden muutoksia mahdollisten uusien voimalaitosinvestointien myötä. Vuonna 2012 alueelle rakennetaan kiinteää polttoainetta käyttävä kaasutusvoimalaitos jolloin nykyisen laitoksen käyttö ja samalla kivihiilen käyttö vähenee huomattavasti. Tässä työssä vuoden 2016 skenaariossa alueelle ajatellaan rakennettavan kolmas voimalaitos, maakaasukäyttöinen kaasukombiturbiini. Tarkasteluissa energiantuotantomäärien oletetaan pysyvän nykytilanteen suuruisina. Työssä tarkasteltujen skenaarioiden perusteella alueen yhdistetyn kaukolämmön- ja sähköntuotannon (CHP) päästöjä voitaisiin vähentää vuonna 2012 noin 20 % ja vuonna 2016 noin 30 % nykytilanteesta. Esitettyjen investointien riskinä on sopivan polttoaineen saatavuus ja riittävyys. Lisäksi työssä tarkasteltiin kaasutusvoimalaitoksen ja kaasukombiturbiinin takaisinmaksuaikoja. Kierrätyspolttoaineen hinnan kallistuminen hinnasta 5 €/MWh hintaan 15 €/MWh vaikutti kaasutusvoimalaitoksen takaisinmaksuaikaan yhdeksällä vuodella. Kaasukombiturbiinin takaisinmaksuaika piteni tämän hetkiseen maakaasun hintaan 27 €/MWh verrattuna päästöoikeuden lisäkustannus 6 €/MWh huomioiden kahdeksan vuotta. Takaisinmaksuaikaan vaikuttaa muun muassa polttoaineen hinta ja laitoksen huipunkäyttöaika.

Microcracks and Vortices in Superconducting Thin Films

In this work, superconducting YBa₂ Cu₃O_6+x (YBCO) thin films have been studied with the experimental focus on the anisotropy of BaZrO₃ (BZO) doped YBCOthin films and the theoretical focus on modelling flux pinning by numerically solving Ginzburg- Landau equations. Also, the structural properties of undoped YBCO thin films grown on NdGaO₃ (NGO) and MgO substrates were investigated. The thin film samples were made by pulsed laser ablation on single crystal substrates. The structural properties of the thin films were characterized by X-ray diffraction and atomic force microscope measurements. The superconducting properties were investigated with a magnetometer and also with transport measurements in pulsed magnetic field up to 30 T. Flux pinning was modelled by restricting the value of the order parameter inside the columnar pinning sites and then solving the Ginzburg-Landau equations numerically with the restrictions in place. The computations were done with a parallel code on a supercomputer. The YBCO thin films were seen to develop microcracks when grown on NGO or MgO substrates. The microcrack formation was connected to the structure of the YBCO thin films in both cases. Additionally, the microcracks can be avoided by careful optimization of the deposition parameters and the film thickness. The BZO doping of the YBCO thin films was seen to decrease the effective electron mass anisotropy, which was seen by fitting the Blatter scaling to the angle dependence of the upper critical field. The Ginzburg-Landau simulations were able to reproduce the measured magnetic field dependence of the critical current density for BZO doped and undoped YBCO. The simulations showed that in addition to the large density also the large size of the BZO nanorods is a key factor behind the change in the power law behaviour between BZO doped and undoped YBCO. Additionally, the Ginzburg-Landau equations were solved for type I thin films where giant vortices were seen to appear depending on the film thickness. The simulations predicted that singly quantized vortices are stable in type I films up to quite large thicknesses and that the size of the vortices increases with decreasing film thickness, in a way that is similar to the behaviour of the interaction length of Pearl vortices.

CloudSimDisk: Energy-Aware Storage Simulation in CloudSim

Cloud Computing paradigm is continually evolving, and with it, the size and the complexity of its infrastructure. Assessing the performance of a Cloud environment is an essential but strenuous task. Modeling and simulation tools have proved their usefulness and powerfulness to deal with this issue. This master thesis work contributes to the development of the widely used cloud simulator CloudSim and proposes CloudSimDisk, a module for modeling and simulation of energy-aware storage in CloudSim. As a starting point, a review of Cloud simulators has been conducted and hard disk drive technology has been studied in detail. Furthermore, CloudSim has been identified as the most popular and sophisticated discrete event Cloud simulator. Thus, CloudSimDisk module has been developed as an extension of CloudSim v3.0.3. The source code has been published for the research community. The simulation results proved to be in accordance with the analytic models, and the scalability of the module has been presented for further development.

Analysis of Industrial Granular Flow Applications by Using Advanced Collision Models

Granular flow phenomena are frequently encountered in the design of process and industrial plants in the traditional fields of the chemical, nuclear and oil industries as well as in other activities such as food and materials handling. Multi-phase flow is one important branch of the granular flow. Granular materials have unusual kinds of behavior compared to normal materials, either solids or fluids. Although some of the characteristics are still not well-known yet, one thing is confirmed: the particle-particle interaction plays a key role in the dynamics of granular materials, especially for dense granular materials. At the beginning of this thesis, detailed illustration of developing two models for describing the interaction based on the results of finite-element simulation, dimension analysis and numerical simulation is presented. The first model is used to describing the normal collision of viscoelastic particles. Based on some existent models, more parameters are added to this model, which make the model predict the experimental results more accurately. The second model is used for oblique collision, which include the effects from tangential velocity, angular velocity and surface friction based on Coulomb's law. The theoretical predictions of this model are in agreement with those by finite-element simulation. I n the latter chapters of this thesis, the models are used to predict industrial granular flow and the agreement between the simulations and experiments also shows the validation of the new model. The first case presents the simulation of granular flow passing over a circular obstacle. The simulations successfully predict the existence of a parabolic steady layer and show how the characteristics of the particles, such as coefficients of restitution and surface friction affect the separation results. The second case is a spinning container filled with granular material. Employing the previous models, the simulation could also reproduce experimentally observed phenomena, such as a depression in the center of a high frequency rotation. The third application is about gas-solid mixed flow in a vertically vibrated device. Gas phase motion is added to coherence with the particle motion. The governing equations of the gas phase are solved by using the Large eddy simulation (LES) and particle motion is predicted by using the Lagrangian method. The simulation predicted some pattern formation reported by experiment.

Application and development of numerical methods for the modelling of innovative gas cooled fission reactors

Innovative gas cooled reactors, such as the pebble bed reactor (PBR) and the gas cooled fast reactor (GFR) offer higher efficiency and new application areas for nuclear energy. Numerical methods were applied and developed to analyse the specific features of these reactor types with fully three dimensional calculation models. In the first part of this thesis, discrete element method (DEM) was used for a physically realistic modelling of the packing of fuel pebbles in PBR geometries and methods were developed for utilising the DEM results in subsequent reactor physics and thermal-hydraulics calculations. In the second part, the flow and heat transfer for a single gas cooled fuel rod of a GFR were investigated with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods. An in-house DEM implementation was validated and used for packing simulations, in which the effect of several parameters on the resulting average packing density was investigated. The restitution coefficient was found out to have the most significant effect. The results can be utilised in further work to obtain a pebble bed with a specific packing density. The packing structures of selected pebble beds were also analysed in detail and local variations in the packing density were observed, which should be taken into account especially in the reactor core thermal-hydraulic analyses. Two open source DEM codes were used to produce stochastic pebble bed configurations to add realism and improve the accuracy of criticality calculations performed with the Monte Carlo reactor physics code Serpent. Russian ASTRA criticality experiments were calculated. Pebble beds corresponding to the experimental specifications within measurement uncertainties were produced in DEM simulations and successfully exported into the subsequent reactor physics analysis. With the developed approach, two typical issues in Monte Carlo reactor physics calculations of pebble bed geometries were avoided. A novel method was developed and implemented as a MATLAB code to calculate porosities in the cells of a CFD calculation mesh constructed over a pebble bed obtained from DEM simulations. The code was further developed to distribute power and temperature data accurately between discrete based reactor physics and continuum based thermal-hydraulics models to enable coupled reactor core calculations. The developed method was also found useful for analysing sphere packings in general. CFD calculations were performed to investigate the pressure losses and heat transfer in three dimensional air cooled smooth and rib roughened rod geometries, housed inside a hexagonal flow channel representing a sub-channel of a single fuel rod of a GFR. The CFD geometry represented the test section of the L-STAR experimental facility at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and the calculation results were compared to the corresponding experimental results. Knowledge was gained of the adequacy of various turbulence models and of the modelling requirements and issues related to the specific application. The obtained pressure loss results were in a relatively good agreement with the experimental data. Heat transfer in the smooth rod geometry was somewhat under predicted, which can partly be explained by unaccounted heat losses and uncertainties. In the rib roughened geometry heat transfer was severely under predicted by the used realisable k − epsilon turbulence model. An additional calculation with a v2 − f turbulence model showed significant improvement in the heat transfer results, which is most likely due to the better performance of the model in separated flow problems. Further investigations are suggested before using CFD to make conclusions of the heat transfer performance of rib roughened GFR fuel rod geometries. It is suggested that the viewpoints of numerical modelling are included in the planning of experiments to ease the challenging model construction and simulations and to avoid introducing additional sources of uncertainties. To facilitate the use of advanced calculation approaches, multi-physical aspects in experiments should also be considered and documented in a reasonable detail.

Integrated energy storage tank for large scale power-to-gas applications

The global interest towards renewable energy production such as wind and solar energy is increasing, which in turn calls for new energy storage concepts due to the larger share of intermittent energy production. Power-to-gas solutions can be utilized to convert surplus electricity to chemical energy which can be stored for extended periods of time. The energy storage concept explored in this thesis is an integrated energy storage tank connected to an oxy-fuel combustion plant. Using this approach, flue gases from the plant could be fed directly into the storage tank and later converted into synthetic natural gas by utilizing electrolysis-methanation route. This work utilizes computational fluid dynamics to model the desublimation of carbon dioxide inside a storage tank containing cryogenic liquid, such as liquefied natural gas. Numerical modelling enables the evaluation of the transient flow patterns caused by the desublimation, as well as general fluid behaviour inside the tank. Based on simulations the stability of the cryogenic storage and the magnitude of the key parameters can be evaluated.

Stochastic particle models: mean reversion and burgers dynamics. An application to commodity markets

The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic model for commodity markets linked with the Burgers equation from fluid dynamics. We construct a stochastic particles method for commodity markets, in which particles represent market participants. A discontinuity in the model is included through an interacting kernel equal to the Heaviside function and its link with the Burgers equation is given. The Burgers equation and the connection of this model with stochastic differential equations are also studied. Further, based on the law of large numbers, we prove the convergence, for large N, of a system of stochastic differential equations describing the evolution of the prices of N traders to a deterministic partial differential equation of Burgers type. Numerical experiments highlight the success of the new proposal in modeling some commodity markets, and this is confirmed by the ability of the model to reproduce price spikes when their effects occur in a sufficiently long period of time.

Aikasarja-analyysimenetelmien soveltuvuus maakaasun; hinnoittelussa käytettyjen sidonnaisuustekijöiden ennustamisessa: Case Gasum Oy

Tässä tutkielmassatarkastellaan maakaasun hinnoittelussa käytettyjen sidonnaisuustekijöiden hintadynamiikkaa ja niiden vaikutusta maakaasun hinnanmuodostukseen. Pääasiallisena tavoitteena on arvioida eri aikasarjamenetelmien soveltuvuutta sidonnaisuustekijöiden ennustamisessa. Tämä toteutettiin analysoimalla eri mallien ja menetelmien ominaisuuksia sekä yhteen sovittamalla nämä eri energiamuotojen hinnanmuodostuksen erityispiirteisiin. Tutkielmassa käytetty lähdeaineisto on saatu Gasum Oy:n tietokannasta. Maakaasun hinnoittelussa käytetään kolmea sidonnaisuustekijää seuraavilla painoarvoilla: raskaspolttoöljy 50%, indeksi E40 30% ja kivihiili 20%. Kivihiilen ja raskaan polttoöljyn hinta-aineisto koostuu verottomista dollarimääräisistä kuukausittaisista keskiarvoista periodilta 1.1.1997 - 31.10.2004. Kotimarkkinoiden perushintaindeksin alaindeksin E40 indeksi-aineisto, joka kuvaa energian tuottajahinnan kehitystä Suomessa ja koostuu tilastokeskuksen julkaisemista kuukausittaisista arvoista periodilta 1.1.2000 - 31.10.2004. Tutkimuksessa tarkasteltujen mallien ennustuskyky osoittautui heikoksi. Kuitenkin tuloksien perusteella voidaan todeta, että lyhyellä aikavälillä EWMA-malli antoi harhattomimman ennusteen. Muut testatuista malleista eivät kyenneet antamaan riittävän luotettavia ja tarkkoja ennusteita. Perinteinen aikasarja-analyysi kykeni tunnistamaan aikasarjojen kausivaihtelut sekä trendit. Lisäksi liukuvan keskiarvon menetelmä osoittautui jossain määrin käyttökelpoiseksi aikasarjojen lyhyen aikavälin trendien identifioinnissa.