Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

On the Analysis and Control of a Linear Synchronous Servomotor with a Flexible Load

Industry's growing need for higher productivity is placing new demands on mechanisms connected with electrical motors, because these can easily lead to vibration problems due to fast dynamics. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects caused by a motor frequently reduce servo stability, which diminishes the controller's ability to predict and maintain speed. Hence, the flexibility of a mechanism and its control has become an important area of research. The basic approach in control system engineering is to assume that the mechanism connected to a motor is rigid, so that vibrations in the tool mechanism, reel, gripper or any apparatus connected to the motor are not taken into account. This might reduce the ability of the machine system to carry out its assignment and shorten the lifetime of the equipment. Nonetheless, it is usually more important to know how the mechanism, or in other words the load on the motor, behaves. A nonlinear load control method for a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor is developed and implemented in the thesis. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired velocity reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillations. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm with its stability ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. As a reference controller for the backstepping method, a hybrid neural controller is introduced in which the linear motor itself is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller and the vibration of the associated flexible mechanism is suppressed from an outer control loop using a compensation signal from a multilayer perceptron network. To avoid the local minimum problem entailed in neural networks, the initial weights are searched for offline by means of a differential evolution algorithm. The states of a mechanical system for controllers are estimated using the Kalman filter. The theoretical results obtained from the control design are validated with the lumped mass model for a mechanism. Generalization of the mechanism allows the methods derived here to be widely implemented in machine automation. The control algorithms are first designed in a specially introduced nonlinear simulation model and then implemented in the physical linear motor using a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) application. The measurements prove that both controllers are capable of suppressing vibration, but that the backstepping method is superior to others due to its accuracy of response and stability properties.

The bifurcational behaviour of the spatially distributed Rayleigh equation

At the present work the bifurcational behaviour of the solutions of Rayleigh equation and corresponding spatially distributed system is being analysed. The conditions of oscillatory and monotonic loss of stability are obtained. In the case of oscillatory loss of stability, the analysis of linear spectral problem is being performed. For nonlinear problem, recurrent formulas for the general term of the asymptotic approximation of the self-oscillations are found, the stability of the periodic mode is analysed. Lyapunov-Schmidt method is being used for asymptotic approximation. The correlation between periodic solutions of ODE and PDE is being investigated. The influence of the diffusion on the frequency of self-oscillations is being analysed. Several numerical experiments are being performed in order to support theoretical findings.

Studies of Solar Activity with Emphasis on Quasi-Periodic Oscillations

In this thesis mainly long quasi-periodic solar oscillations in various solar atmospheric structures are discussed, based on data obtained at several wavelengths, focussing, however, mainly on radio frequencies. Sunspot (Articles II and III) and quiet Sun area (QSA) (Article I) oscillations are investigated along with quasi-periodic pulsations (QPP) in a flaring event with wide-range radio spectra (Article IV). Various oscillation periods are detected; 3–15, 35–70 and 90 minutes (QSA), 10-60 and 80-130 minutes (in sunspots at various radio frequencies), 3-5, 10-23, 220-240, 340 and 470 minutes (in sunspots at photosphere) and 8-12 and 15-17 seconds (in a solar flare at radio frequencies). Some of the oscillation periods are detected for the first time, while some of them have been confirmed earlier by other research groups. Solar oscillations can provide more information on the nature of various solar structures. This thesis presents the physical mechanisms of some solar structure oscillations. Two different theoretical approaches are chosen; magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and the shallow sunspot model. These two theories can explain a wide range of solar oscillations from a few seconds up to some hours. Various wave modes in loop structures cause solar oscillations (<45 minutes) both in sunspots and quiet Sun areas. Periods lasting more than 45 minutes in the sunspots (and a fraction of the shorter periods) are related to sunspot oscillations as a whole. Sometimes similar oscillation periods are detected both in sunspot area variations and respectively in magnetic field strength changes. This result supports a concept that these oscillations are related to sunspot oscillations as a whole. In addition, a theory behind QPPs at radio frequencies in solar flares is presented. The thesis also covers solar instrumentation and data sources. Additionally, the data processing methods are presented. As the majority of the investigations in this thesis focus on radio frequencies, also the most typical radio emission mechanisms are presented. The main structures of the Sun, which are related to solar oscillations, are also presented. Two separate projects are included in this thesis. Solar cyclicity is studied using the extensively large solar radio map archieve from Metsähovi Radio Observatory (MRO) at 37 GHz, between 1978 and 2011 (Article V) covering two full solar cycles. Also, some new solar instrumentation (Article VI) was developed during this thesis.

Efficient Optimization Algorithms for Nonlinear Data Analysis

Identification of low-dimensional structures and main sources of variation from multivariate data are fundamental tasks in data analysis. Many methods aimed at these tasks involve solution of an optimization problem. Thus, the objective of this thesis is to develop computationally efficient and theoretically justified methods for solving such problems. Most of the thesis is based on a statistical model, where ridges of the density estimated from the data are considered as relevant features. Finding ridges, that are generalized maxima, necessitates development of advanced optimization methods. An efficient and convergent trust region Newton method for projecting a point onto a ridge of the underlying density is developed for this purpose. The method is utilized in a differential equation-based approach for tracing ridges and computing projection coordinates along them. The density estimation is done nonparametrically by using Gaussian kernels. This allows application of ridge-based methods with only mild assumptions on the underlying structure of the data. The statistical model and the ridge finding methods are adapted to two different applications. The first one is extraction of curvilinear structures from noisy data mixed with background clutter. The second one is a novel nonlinear generalization of principal component analysis (PCA) and its extension to time series data. The methods have a wide range of potential applications, where most of the earlier approaches are inadequate. Examples include identification of faults from seismic data and identification of filaments from cosmological data. Applicability of the nonlinear PCA to climate analysis and reconstruction of periodic patterns from noisy time series data are also demonstrated. Other contributions of the thesis include development of an efficient semidefinite optimization method for embedding graphs into the Euclidean space. The method produces structure-preserving embeddings that maximize interpoint distances. It is primarily developed for dimensionality reduction, but has also potential applications in graph theory and various areas of physics, chemistry and engineering. Asymptotic behaviour of ridges and maxima of Gaussian kernel densities is also investigated when the kernel bandwidth approaches infinity. The results are applied to the nonlinear PCA and to finding significant maxima of such densities, which is a typical problem in visual object tracking.

Initialization of Continuous Nonlinear Models Using Extended Kalman Filter

The two main objectives of Bayesian inference are to estimate parameters and states. In this thesis, we are interested in how this can be done in the framework of state-space models when there is a complete or partial lack of knowledge of the initial state of a continuous nonlinear dynamical system. In literature, similar problems have been referred to as diffuse initialization problems. This is achieved first by extending the previously developed diffuse initialization Kalman filtering techniques for discrete systems to continuous systems. The second objective is to estimate parameters using MCMC methods with a likelihood function obtained from the diffuse filtering. These methods are tried on the data collected from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC in order to estimate the parameters of the system.