Thyroid function in the elderly and sex hormones in elderly men: reference intervals and associations with health

Aims: The aims were to create clinically feasible reference intervals for thyroidstimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) and to analyze associations between thyroid function and self-rated health, neuropsychiatric symptoms, depression and dementia in the elderly. The second aim was also to establish reference intervals for sex hormones and to analyze associations between sex hormone levels and self-rated health, symptoms, depression and dementia in elderly men. Subjects and methods: The study population comprised 1252 subjects aged 65 years or over, living in the municipality of Lieto, south-western Finland. Self-rated health, life satisfaction, symptoms, depression, and dementia were assessed with specific questions, clinical examination and tools such as the Zung Self-report Depression Scale and the Mini-Mental State Examination. Independent variables were dichotomized, and associations of these variables with TSH, FT4 or sex hormone levels were assessed. Levels of TSH and FT4 in thyroid disease–free women and women treated with thyroxine were also compared. Results: Elevated concentrations of thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) or thyroglobulin antibodies (TgAb) were found to have a marked effect on the upper reference limit for TSH among women, who were thyroid antibody positive more higher than suggested in several recent guidelines. After age adjustment, there were no associations between TSH levels and self-rated health, life satisfaction, or most neuropsychiatric symptoms in the thyroid disease-free population. Although women with thyroxine treatment for primary hypothyroidism had far higher TSH levels than thyroid disease-free women, there were no differences between thyroid-disease free women and women with stable thyroxine treatment regarding self-rated health, life satisfaction or symptoms. Age had a significant positive association with luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle 2 practice, one range in men aged 65 years or over can be used for T, E2 and FSH measured with the AutoDelfia method, but two separate reference intervals should be used for fT, LH and SHBG. After adjustment for age, higher levels of T and fT were associated with better self-rated health (SRH) in the reference population. After adjustment for age and body mass index (BMI), there were no associations between sex hormone concentrations and self-rated health, life satisfaction or most symptoms in concentration. Conclusion: Age-specific reference intervals were derived for thyroid function and sex hormones based on comprehensive data from a community-dwelling population with a high participation rate. The results do not support the need to decrease the upper reference limit for TSH or to lower the optimal TSH target in levothyroxine treatment in older adults, as recommended in recent guidelines. Older age or being overweight symptoms among elderly men. The associations of single symptoms with T levels were inconsistent among elderly men, although the association of low T level with diagnosed depression might be clinically significant.

The Forecast Performance of Model-Free Implied Volatility: Evidence from DAX Index Options

Volatility has a central role in various theoretical and practical applications in financial markets. These include the applications related to portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and financial risk management. Both theoretical and practical applications require good estimates and forecasts for the asset return volatility. The goal of this study is to examine the forecast performance of one of the more recent volatility measures, model-free implied volatility. Model-free implied volatility is extracted from the prices in the option markets, and it aims to provide an unbiased estimate for the market’s expectation on the future level of volatility. Since it is extracted from the option prices, model-free implied volatility should contain all the relevant information that the market participants have. Moreover, model-free implied volatility requires less restrictive assumptions than the commonly used Black-Scholes implied volatility, which means that it should be less biased estimate for the market’s expectations. Therefore, it should also be a better forecast for the future volatility. The forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is evaluated by comparing it to the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility and GARCH(1,1) forecast. Weekly forecasts for six years period were calculated for the forecasted variable, German stock market index DAX. The data consisted of price observations for DAX index options. The forecast performance was measured using econometric methods, which aimed to capture the biasedness, accuracy and the information content of the forecasts. The results of the study suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is superior to forecast performance of GARCH(1,1) forecast. However, the results also suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is not as good as the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility, which is against the hypotheses based on theory. The results of this study are consistent with the majority of prior research on the subject.