Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment : Prosperity, competitiveness, sustainable development

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Strategy for 2012–2015 : The Centres for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment create sustainable well-being

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Centres for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment at Your Service

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Development of Russian Ports in The Gulf of Finland

Russia has been one of the fastest developing economic areas in the world. Based on the GDP, the Russian economy grew evenly since the crisis in 1998 up till 2008. The growth in the gross domestic product has annually been some 5–10%. In 2007, the growth reached 8.1%, which is the highest figure after the 10% growth in 2000. Due to the growth of the economy and wage levels, purchasing power and consumption have been strongly increasing. The growing consumption has especially increased the imports of durables, such as passenger cars, domestic appliances and electronics. The Russian ports and infrastructure have not been able to satisfy the growing needs of exports and imports, which is why quite a large share of Russian foreign trade is going through third countries as transit transports. Finnish ports play a major role in transit transports to and from Russia. About 15% of the total value of Russian imports was transported through Finland in 2008. The economic recession that started in autumn 2008 and continues to date has had an impact on the economic development of Russia. The export income has decreased, mainly due to the reduced world market prices of energy products (oil and gas) and raw minerals. Investments have been postponed, getting credit is more difficult than before, and the ruble has weakened in relation to the euro and the dollar. The imports are decreasing remarkably, and are not forecast to reach the 2008 volumes even in 2012. The economic crisis is reflected in Finland's transit traffic. The volume of goods transported through Finland to and from Russia has decreased almost in the same proportion as the imports of goods to Russia. The biggest risk threatening the development of the Russian economy over long term is its dependence on export income from oil, gas, metals, minerals and forest products, as well as the trends of the world market prices of these products. Nevertheless, it is expected that the GDP of Russia will start to grow again in the forthcoming years due to the increased demand for energy products and raw minerals in the world. At the same time, it is obvious that the world market prices of these products will go up with the increasing demand. The increased income from exports will lead to a growth of imports, especially those of consumer goods, as the living standard of Russian citizens rises. The forecasts produced by the Russian Government concerning the economic development of Russia up till 2030 also indicate a shift in exported goods from raw materials to processed products, which together with energy products will become the main export goods of Russia. As a consequence, Russia may need export routes through third countries, which can be seen as an opportunity for increased transit transports through the ports of Finland. The ports competing with the ports of Finland for Russian foreign trade traffic are the Russian Baltic Sea ports and the ports of the Baltic countries. The strongest competitors are the Baltic Sea ports handling containers. On the Russian Baltic Sea, these ports include Saint Petersburg, Kaliningrad and, in the near future, the ports of Ust-Luga and possibly Vyborg. There are plans to develop Ust-Luga and Vyborg as modern container ports, which would become serious competitors to the Finnish ports. Russia is aiming to redirect as large a share as possible of foreign trade traffic to its own ports. The ports of Russia and the infrastructure associated with them are under constant development. On the other hand, the logistic capacity of Russia is not able to satisfy the continually growing needs of the Russian foreign trade. The capacity problem is emphasized by a structural incompatibility between the exports and imports in the Russian foreign trade. Russian exports can only use a small part of the containers brought in with imports. Problems are also caused by the difficult ice conditions and narrow waterways leading to the ports. It is predicted that Finland will maintain its position as a transit route for the Russian foreign trade, at least in the near future. The Russian foreign trade is increasing, and Russia will not be able to develop its ports in proportion with the increasing foreign trade. With the development of port capacity, cargo flows through the ports of Russia will grow. Structural changes in transit traffic are already visible. Firms are more and more relocating their production to Russia, for example as regards the assembly of cars and warehousing services. Simultaneously, an increasing part of transit cargoes are sent directly to Russia without unloading and reloading in Finland. New product groups have nevertheless been transported through Finland (textile products and tools), replacing the lost cargos. The global recession that started in autumn 2008 has influenced the volume of Russian imports and, consequently, the transit volumes of Finland, but the recession is not expected to be of long duration, and will thus only have a short-term impact on transit volumes. The Finnish infrastructure and services offered by the logistic chain should also be ready to react to the changes in imported product groups as well as to the change in Russian export products in the future. If the development plans of the Russian economy are realized, export products will be more refined, and the share of energy and raw material products will decrease. The other notable factor to be taken into consideration is the extremely fast-changing business environment in Russia. Operators in the logistic chain should be flexible enough to adapt to all kinds of changes to capitalise on business opportunities offered by the Russian foreign trade for the companies and for the transit volumes of Finnish ports, also in the future.

Foreign Direct Investment, Clean Development Mechanism, and Environmental Management: A case of Sub-Saharan Africa

This doctoral dissertation explores the contribution of environmental management practices, the so-called clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in achieving sustainable development in developing countries, particularly in Sub- Saharan Africa. Because the climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most serious global environmental challenges, the main focus is on the causal links between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, the dissertation investigates the factors that have affected the distribution of CDM projects in developing countries and the relationships between FDI and other macroeconomic variables of interest. The main contribution of the dissertation is empirical. One of the publications uses crosssectional data and Tobit and Poisson regressions. Three of the studies use time-series data and vector autoregressive and vector error correction models, while two publications use panel data and panel data estimation methods. One of the publications uses thus both timeseries and panel data. The concept of Granger causality is utilized in four of the publications. The results indicate that there are significant differences in the Granger causality relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and FDI in different countries. It appears also that the causality relationships change over time. Furthermore, the results support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis but only for some of the countries. As to CDM activities, past emission levels, institutional quality, and the size of the host country appear to be among the significant determinants of the distribution of CDM projects. FDI and exports are also found to be significant determinants of economic growth.

Rakennusinvestointien käsittelyprosessin tehostaminen

Suomen valtionhallinnon maaliskuussa 2005 julkaisemat tuloksellisuuden tavoitteet koskettavat kaikkia hallinnonaloja. Maa- ja metsätalousministeriön ohjeistamat Työvoima- ja elinkeinokeskusten maaseutuosastot ovat yksikköjä, joita vaikuttavuus- ja tuloksellisuustavoitteet velvoittavat. Tehokasta elintarviketuotantoa ja maatalouden kustannuskehityksen hallintaa voidaan tarkastella kiinteiden tuotannontekijöiden, kuten maatalousrakennusten ja investointituilla tuetun rakentamisen, vaikuttavuuden kautta. Työn tavoitteena oli tehostaa rakennusinvestointien käsittelyprosessia: kehittää sekä tehostamisen menetelmiä että työväline toiminnan ohjaukseen maa- ja metsätalousministeriölle. Ratkaisuja etsittiin teorian ja empirian pohjalta kehitettävien käsitteistöjen ja menetelmien avulla. Teoriaosuudessa haettiin kirjallisuudesta välineitä joilla prosesseja voitaisiin analysoida, mitata ja kehittää. Prosessimallinnukset, Italian vastaavan järjestelmän tutkimus ja Suomen rakennustoimelle tehty kysely muodostavat empiirisen aineiston, jonka perusteella lopulliset tehostamisen keinot ja konstruktiot kehitettiin. Tehostamisen menetelmäksi kehitettiinaluehallinnolle sovellettu suorituskyvyn mittausjärjestelmä, panosprisma. Tuloksellisuus, vaikuttavuus ja laatu riippuvat työn tuottamisen lähtökohdista. Prosessia voidaan tehostaa kiinnittämällä huomiota tulosohjaukseen, asiakirjojen saatavuuteen ja laatuun, neuvonnan oikea-aikaiseen ajoittuvuuteen ja riittävyyteen sekä tietojärjestelmien kehittämiseen. Näiden avulla voidaan saavuttaa käsittelyprosessin aika- ja kustannussäästöjä, tukivarojen käyttöön saaminen ja hyödynnettävyys paranevat ja tukipäätöksen tuottamisen asiakaspalveluprosessi tehostuu.

Balanced Scorecard (BSC) TE-keskusten strategisessa ohjauksessa

Kauppa- ja teollisuusministeriö yhdessä työministeriön ja maa- ja metsätalousministeriön kanssa ohjaavat työvoima- ja elinkeinokeskuksia (TE –keskuksia). Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on kuvata ohjausprosessi, jonka avulla ministeriöt ohjaavat TE –keskuksia sekä analysoida TE –keskusten ohjauksen työkalua, Balanced Scorecardia, ja antaa sitä koskevia kehitysehdotuksia. Tutkimusmetodologia on toiminta-analyyttinen. Teoreettinen viitekehys koostuu tulosohjauksen teoriasta ja Balanced Scorecardin teoriasta. Empiirinen aineisto kerätään tekemällä haastatteluja. Tärkeimmät TE –keskusten Balanced Scorecardia koskevat kehitysehdotukset koskevat mittaristoa ja raportointia. Mittaristossa suurin kehittämistarve on TE -keskusten yhteisillä mittareilla sekä mittariston näkökulmien syy-seuraussuhteiden selventämisellä. Jotta Balanced Scorecard toimisi parhaalla mahdollisella tavalla, on henkilöstön koulutus erityisen tärkeää.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)

Traffic flow development at North European company level with respect of China and Russia

The aim of the thesis is to analyze traffic flows and its development from North European companies` point of view to China and Russia using data from logistics questionnaire. Selected North European companies are large Finnish and Swedish companies. The questionnaire was sent via email to the target group. The study is based on the answers got from respondent companies from years 2006, 2009 and 2010. In the thesis Finnish Talouselämä newspaper and Swedish Affärsdata are used as a database to find the target companies for the survey. Respondents were most often logistics managers in companies. In the beginning of the thesis concepts of transportation logistics is presented, including container types, trade terms, axel loads in roads and in railways. Also there is information about warehousing types and terminals. After that, general information of Chinese and Russian transportation logistics is presented. Chinese and Russian issues are discussed in two sections. In both of them it is analyzed economic development, freight transport and trade balance. Some practical examples of factory inaugurations in China and Russia are presented that Finnish and Swedish companies have completed. In freight transport section different transportation modes, logistics outsourcing and problems of transportation logistics is discussed. The results of the thesis show that transportation flows between Europe and China is changing. Freight traffic from China to European countries will strengthen even more from the current base. When it comes to Russia and Europe, traffic flows seem to be changing from eastbound traffic to westbound traffic. It means that in the future it is expected more freight traffic from Russia to Europe. Some probable reasons for that are recent factory establishments in Russia and company interviews support also this observation. Effects of the economic recession are mainly seen in the lower transportation amounts in 2009.

Rural Food System Change in Tanzania during the Post-Ujamaa Era. A Case Study from Western Bagamoyo District

Food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa have been rapidly transforming during the recent decades with diverse outcomes on human development and environment. This study explores the food system change in rural villages in eastern Tanzania where subsistence agriculture has traditionally been the main source of livelihood. The focus is on the salient changes in the spatial dimensions and structural composition of the food system in the context of economic liberalization that has taken place after the end of the socialist ujamaa era in the mid-1980s. In addition, the linkages of the changes are examined in relation to food security, socio-economic situation, livelihoods, and local environment. The approach of the study is geographical, but also involves various multi-disciplinary elements, particularly from development studies. The research methods included thematic and questionnaire interviews, participatory tools, and the analysis of land use/ cover data and official documents. Several earlier studies that were made in the area during the late 1970s and 1980s provided an important reference base. The study shows that subsistence farming has lost its dominant role in food provisioning due to the declining productivity of land, livestock losses, and the increasing shift of labour to non-farm sectors. Also rapid population growth has added to the pressure on land and other natural resources. Despite the increasing need for money for buying marketed foods and other necessities, the nutritional situation shows improvement and severe malnutrition has diminished. However, the long-term sustainability of this transformation raises concerns. Firstly, the food security situation continues to be fragile and prone to shocks such as adverse climatic conditions, crop failures and price hikes. Secondly, the commodification of the food system and livelihoods in general is linked to rapid environmental degradation in the area, particularly the loss of soil fertility and deforestation. The situation calls for efforts that take more determined and holistic approaches towards sustainable development of the rural food system with particular focus on the role and viability of small-scale farming.

Tieliikennetelematiikkalaitteiden huoltoon liittyvän verkoston toiminnan kehittäminen

Diplomityössä on tutkittu tieliikennetelematiikkalaitteiden huoltoon liittyvän verkoston toiminnan kehittämistä. Tutkittuun verkostoon kuuluvat Valtti-yksikkö (Valtakunnallinen liikennetelematiikka ja liikenteenhallinnan tietopalvelut), ELYkeskukset, tieliikennekeskukset, hallinta- ja valvontatoimija sekä huoltotoimijat. Tarkoituksena oli selvittää, kuinka verkoston toiminnan tehokkuutta voidaan parantaa. Tähän sisältyi verkoston toimijoiden tunnistaminen sekä toimijoiden roolien ja vastuiden määrittäminen. Lisäksi on tutkittu kuinka verkoston toimijoiden välistä tiedonkulkua voidaan parantaa ja kuinka ITIL-viitekehys soveltuu verkoston toimintaan. Diplomityötä varten on haastateltu verkoston toimijoiden edustajia heidän näkemyksistään verkoston toiminnasta ja sen kehittämistarpeista.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Economic Growth of Bangladesh. The Roles of Infrastructural Facilities

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow has been a key concern for Bangladesh to obtain additional support for the economic development. The Government of Bangladesh continuously competing with other South Asian countries and putting more effort to increase the number of FDI inflows in the country. From the country’s perspective, the constant increasing rate of economic growth shows a positive outcome of FDI inflow. However, the country still not performing up to the mark to pull enough FDI inflows to its potential. Thus, this study discusses about the major determinants and factors affecting FDI inflows in Bangladesh. Among those determinants and factors, infrastructural facility is considered as the most important to affect FDI inflows. FDI inflow is fundamentally depending upon infrastructural facilities to achieve its desire success. Foreign investors take this issue very seriously because based on this they can measure their ease of doing business in the host country. Despite of providing a large market size, due to having weak and lack of infrastructural facilities, Bangladesh is facing trouble in drawing attention of the foreign investors. In order to make the infrastructural facilities happen, it is highly required to organize each of the systems under of it. The body of this study discussed about the weak infrastructures in Bangladesh such as transport and communication, power and energy, education system, and governance services. Improvement in one of these systems cannot provide valuable positive changes on FDI inflows. It requires improvement in all the weak systems to grasp multinational companies and attract foreign investors. On the basis of this research problem, research questions are established. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to answer the research questions. Furthermore, several theories have been applied to justify possible scenarios from the research problem. In addition, the history in between Bangladesh, trade liberalization, and FDI inflows is presented briefly.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Economic Growth of Bangladesh. The Roles of Infrastructural Facilities

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow has been a key concern for Bangladesh to obtain additional support for the economic development. The Government of Bangladesh continuously competing with other South Asian countries and putting more effort to increase the number of FDI inflows in the country. From the country’s perspective, the constant increasing rate of economic growth shows a positive outcome of FDI inflow. However, the country still not performing up to the mark to pull enough FDI inflows to its potential. Thus, this study discusses about the major determinants and factors affecting FDI inflows in Bangladesh. Among those determinants and factors, infrastructural facility is considered as the most important to affect FDI inflows. FDI inflow is fundamentally depending upon infrastructural facilities to achieve its desire success. Foreign investors take this issue very seriously because based on this they can measure their ease of doing business in the host country. Despite of providing a large market size, due to having weak and lack of infrastructural facilities, Bangladesh is facing trouble in drawing attention of the foreign investors. In order to make the infrastructural facilities happen, it is highly required to organize each of the systems under of it. The body of this study discussed about the weak infrastructures in Bangladesh such as transport and communication, power and energy, education system, and governance services. Improvement in one of these systems cannot provide valuable positive changes on FDI inflows. It requires improvement in all the weak systems to grasp multinational companies and attract foreign investors. On the basis of this research problem, research questions are established. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to answer the research questions. Furthermore, several theories have been applied to justify possible scenarios from the research problem. In addition, the history in between Bangladesh, trade liberalization, and FDI inflows is presented briefly