Welding time models for cost calculations in the early stages of the design process

It is generally accepted that between 70 and 80% of manufacturing costs can be attributed to design. Nevertheless, it is difficult for the designer to estimate manufacturing costs accurately, especially when alternative constructions are compared at the conceptual design phase, because of the lack of cost information and appropriate tools. In general, previous reports concerning optimisation of a welded structure have used the mass of the product as the basis for the cost comparison. However, it can easily be shown using a simple example that the use of product mass as the sole manufacturing cost estimator is unsatisfactory. This study describes a method of formulating welding time models for cost calculation, and presents the results of the models for particular sections, based on typical costs in Finland. This was achieved by collecting information concerning welded products from different companies. The data included 71 different welded assemblies taken from the mechanical engineering and construction industries. The welded assemblies contained in total 1 589 welded parts, 4 257 separate welds, and a total welded length of 3 188 metres. The data were modelled for statistical calculations, and models of welding time were derived by using linear regression analysis. Themodels were tested by using appropriate statistical methods, and were found to be accurate. General welding time models have been developed, valid for welding in Finland, as well as specific, more accurate models for particular companies. The models are presented in such a form that they can be used easily by a designer, enabling the cost calculation to be automated.

Towards input/output-free modelling of linear infinite-dimensional systems in continuous time

This dissertation describes a networking approach to infinite-dimensional systems theory, where there is a minimal distinction between inputs and outputs. We introduce and study two closely related classes of systems, namely the state/signal systems and the port-Hamiltonian systems, and describe how they relate to each other. Some basic theory for these two classes of systems and the interconnections of such systems is provided. The main emphasis lies on passive and conservative systems, and the theoretical concepts are illustrated using the example of a lossless transfer line. Much remains to be done in this field and we point to some directions for future studies as well.

Initialization of Continuous Nonlinear Models Using Extended Kalman Filter

The two main objectives of Bayesian inference are to estimate parameters and states. In this thesis, we are interested in how this can be done in the framework of state-space models when there is a complete or partial lack of knowledge of the initial state of a continuous nonlinear dynamical system. In literature, similar problems have been referred to as diffuse initialization problems. This is achieved first by extending the previously developed diffuse initialization Kalman filtering techniques for discrete systems to continuous systems. The second objective is to estimate parameters using MCMC methods with a likelihood function obtained from the diffuse filtering. These methods are tried on the data collected from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC in order to estimate the parameters of the system.

Moottorimalliton skalaarisäätö

Työssä tutkitaan nopeusanturittoman vaihtovirtakäytön skalaarisia ohjaus- ja säätömenetelmiä. Työn alussa esitetään perusteoriat taajuusmuuttajista ja oikosulkumoottoreista. Tämän jälkeen esitellään yleisimmin kirjallisuudessa esiintyneet skalaariohjaukset ja –säädöt. Vektorisäätöä ja erityisesti moottoriparametrien vaikutusta säädön toimivuuteen esitellään lyhyesti. Työn tavoitteena on ACS800 taajuusmuuttajan skalaarisäädön tutkiminen. ACS800:n nykyinen skalaarisäätö on liian sidoksissa vektorisäätöön, joten simulointien ja kirjallisuustutkimuksen tarkoituksena on täysin vektorisäädöstä eriytetyn skalaarisäädön kehitysmahdollisuuksien tutkiminen. Kirjallisuudessa esiintyneiden säätöjen avulla muodostetaan diskreettiaikainen toteutus skalaarisäädölle vaihtovirtakäytössä, jossa on käytössä virran ja välipiirijännitteen takaisinkytkentä. Säädettävää moottoria mallinnetaan jatkuvaaikaisella L-sijaiskytkennällä. Välipiirin mallinnus toimii myös jatkuva-aikaisena lukuun ottamatta välipiirin tasavirtakomponenttia, joka muodostetaan virran takaisinkytkennän ja PWM-modulaattorin kytkinasentojen avulla. Simuloinnin tarkoituksena on mallintaa skalaarisäädön suurimpia ongelmia, kuten virta- ja välijännitesäätöä. Tuloksista voidaan päätellä, että perussäädöt toimivat moitteettomasti, mutta erityisesti virtasäätöä tulisi kehittää.

Simulation of structural stress history based on dynamic analysis

Modern machine structures are often fabricated by welding. From a fatigue point of view, the structural details and especially, the welded details are the most prone to fatigue damage and failure. Design against fatigue requires information on the fatigue resistance of a structure’s critical details and the stress loads that act on each detail. Even though, dynamic simulation of flexible bodies is already current method for analyzing structures, obtaining the stress history of a structural detail during dynamic simulation is a challenging task; especially when the detail has a complex geometry. In particular, analyzing the stress history of every structural detail within a single finite element model can be overwhelming since the amount of nodal degrees of freedom needed in the model may require an impractical amount of computational effort. The purpose of computer simulation is to reduce amount of prototypes and speed up the product development process. Also, to take operator influence into account, real time models, i.e. simplified and computationally efficient models are required. This in turn, requires stress computation to be efficient if it will be performed during dynamic simulation. The research looks back at the theoretical background of multibody dynamic simulation and finite element method to find suitable parts to form a new approach for efficient stress calculation. This study proposes that, the problem of stress calculation during dynamic simulation can be greatly simplified by using a combination of floating frame of reference formulation with modal superposition and a sub-modeling approach. In practice, the proposed approach can be used to efficiently generate the relevant fatigue assessment stress history for a structural detail during or after dynamic simulation. In this work numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the proposed approach in practice. The results show that approach is applicable and can be used as proposed.

Using time and stochastic models for software reliability forecasting and analysis

Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.

Mechanistic population Models in Biology: Model Derivation and Application

In general, models of ecological systems can be broadly categorized as ’top-down’ or ’bottom-up’ models, based on the hierarchical level that the model processes are formulated on. The structure of a top-down, also known as phenomenological, population model can be interpreted in terms of population characteristics, but it typically lacks an interpretation on a more basic level. In contrast, bottom-up, also known as mechanistic, population models are derived from assumptions and processes on a more basic level, which allows interpretation of the model parameters in terms of individual behavior. Both approaches, phenomenological and mechanistic modelling, can have their advantages and disadvantages in different situations. However, mechanistically derived models might be better at capturing the properties of the system at hand, and thus give more accurate predictions. In particular, when models are used for evolutionary studies, mechanistic models are more appropriate, since natural selection takes place on the individual level, and in mechanistic models the direct connection between model parameters and individual properties has already been established. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. Firstly, a systematical way to derive mechanistic discrete-time population models is presented. The derivation is based on combining explicitly modelled, continuous processes on the individual level within a reproductive period with a discrete-time maturation process between reproductive periods. Secondly, as an example of how evolutionary studies can be carried out in mechanistic models, the evolution of the timing of reproduction is investigated. Thus, these two lines of research, derivation of mechanistic population models and evolutionary studies, are complementary to each other.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Non-Markovian Dynamics in Continuous Variable Quantum Systems

The present manuscript represents the completion of a research path carried forward during my doctoral studies in the University of Turku. It contains information regarding my scientific contribution to the field of open quantum systems, accomplished in collaboration with other scientists. The main subject investigated in the thesis is the non-Markovian dynamics of open quantum systems with focus on continuous variable quantum channels, e.g. quantum Brownian motion models. Non-Markovianity is here interpreted as a manifestation of the existence of a flow of information exchanged by the system and environment during the dynamical evolution. While in Markovian systems the flow is unidirectional, i.e. from the system to the environment, in non-Markovian systems there are time windows in which the flow is reversed and the quantum state of the system may regain coherence and correlations previously lost. Signatures of a non-Markovian behavior have been studied in connection with the dynamics of quantum correlations like entanglement or quantum discord. Moreover, in the attempt to recognisee non-Markovianity as a resource for quantum technologies, it is proposed, for the first time, to consider its effects in practical quantum key distribution protocols. It has been proven that security of coherent state protocols can be enhanced using non-Markovian properties of the transmission channels. The thesis is divided in two parts: in the first part I introduce the reader to the world of continuous variable open quantum systems and non-Markovian dynamics. The second part instead consists of a collection of five publications inherent to the topic.

Parameter identification in time series models

Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.

Timing of Capacity Change: Models for Capital Intensive Industry

The suitable timing of capacity investments is a remarkable issue especially in capital intensive industries. Despite its importance, fairly few studies have been published on the topic. In the present study models for the timing of capacity change in capital intensive industry are developed. The study considers mainly the optimal timing of single capacity changes. The review of earlier research describes connections between cost, capacity and timing literature, and empirical examples are used to describe the starting point of the study and to test the developed models. The study includes four models, which describe the timing question from different perspectives. The first model, which minimizes unit costs, has been built for capacity expansion and replacement situations. It is shown that the optimal timing of an investment can be presented with the capacity and cost advantage ratios. After the unit cost minimization model the view is extended to the direction of profit maximization. The second model states that early investments are preferable if the change of fixed costs is small compared to the change of the contribution margin. The third model is a numerical discounted cash flow model, which emphasizes the roles of start-up time, capacity utilization rate and value of waiting as drivers of the profitable timing of a project. The last model expands the view from project level to company level and connects the flexibility of assets and cost structures to the timing problem. The main results of the research are the solutions of the models and analysis or simulations done with the models. The relevance and applicability of the results are verified by evaluating the logic of the models and by numerical cases.

Kunnossapito käyttöomaisuuden arvon ja tuottokyvyn ylläpidon tukena laitoksen elinkaaren aikana

Työssä tutkittiin kunnossapidon mahdollisuuksia vaikuttaa laitoksen elinkaareen ja elinkaaren aikaisiin kustannuksiin. Lisäksi tutkittiin teknisen suunnittelun vaikutusta kunnossapidettävyyteen ja laitoksen elinkaarikustannuksiin. Työn kirjallisuusosassa on tarkasteltu nykyaikaisia kunnossapidon menetelmiä.Erityisesti on tutkittu luotettavuuskeskeistä kunnossapitoa ja kunnossapidon tehtäviä laitoksen elinkaaren aikana. Investoinnin laitevalinnoilla ja niiden suunnittelulla on myös merkittävä vaikutus käyttöön ja erityisesti kunnossapitoon. Työn empiirisessä osassa selvitettiin Botnia Mill Servicen jaMetsä - Botnian toimintamalleja Joutsenon sellutehtaalla. Erityisesti keskityttiin suuriin korjauksiin ja niiden kustannusten hallintaan. Myös kunnossapidon toimintamallia ja sen kehittämistä on tutkittu. Kokeellisessa osassa selvitettiin kunnossapidolle tyypillinen toimintamalli laitoksen elinkaaren hallintaa varten. Tehdyn selvityksen pohjalta voidaan todeta, että pitkän tähtäimen suunnittelu luo pohjaa kustannusten hallinnalle ja laitteiden kunnon ylläpidolle. Suunnittelun aikajänne tulisi olla laitteiden kunnostusten osalta vähintään kolme vuotta. Koko laitoksen kattava elinkaarisuunnitelma on hyvä laatia joheti käyttöönottovaiheen jälkeen. Pitkäjänteisellä suunnittelulla ja sen toteutuksella pystytään parhaalla mahdollisella tavalla ylläpitämään käyttöomaisuuden arvo. Kunnossapidolla on mahdollisuus vaikuttaa laitoksen käyttöomaisuuden arvonylläpitoon hallitsemalla elinkaarikustannuksia. Kunnossapidon onnistuneen toteutuksen takaa oikeanlainen johtaminen ja jatkuva osaamisen ylläpito. Myös kunnossapidossa sovitut toimintamallit ja järjestelmien jatkuva ylläpito ja kehittäminen takaavat onnistuneen toiminnan.

Jatkuvatoimisen sellukeittimen säätöjen suorituskyvyn analysointi

Työssä tarkastellaan yleisiä menetelmiä säätöpiirien suorituskyvyn analysointiin ja sovelletaan niitä jatkuvatoimisen sellukeittimen säätöihin. Esitellyt menetelmät tarjoavat keinoja myös huonon säätötuloksen syyn selvittämiseen ja vinkkejä paremman suorituskyvyn saavuttamiseksi. Analyysissä edettiin top-down periaatteen mukaisesti lähtien liikkeelle keittimen tärkeimmästä säädöstä eli kappaluvun säädöstä. Sitten etsittiin tähän vaikuttavia tekijöitä mitatuista suureista. Seuraavaksi arvioitiin tärkeimmäksi katsotun tekijän (hakepinnankorkeus) säädön suorituskyky, jossa havaittiin parannettavaa. Lopuksi hakepinnankorkeuden säädön viritystämuutettiin ja tehtiin identifiointikoe säätörakenteen uudelleen järjestelyä varten.

Automated formulation of optimisation models for steel beam structures

Over 70% of the total costs of an end product are consequences of decisions that are made during the design process. A search for optimal cross-sections will often have only a marginal effect on the amount of material used if the geometry of a structure is fixed and if the cross-sectional characteristics of its elements are property designed by conventional methods. In recent years, optimalgeometry has become a central area of research in the automated design of structures. It is generally accepted that no single optimisation algorithm is suitable for all engineering design problems. An appropriate algorithm, therefore, mustbe selected individually for each optimisation situation. Modelling is the mosttime consuming phase in the optimisation of steel and metal structures. In thisresearch, the goal was to develop a method and computer program, which reduces the modelling and optimisation time for structural design. The program needed anoptimisation algorithm that is suitable for various engineering design problems. Because Finite Element modelling is commonly used in the design of steel and metal structures, the interaction between a finite element tool and optimisation tool needed a practical solution. The developed method and computer programs were tested with standard optimisation tests and practical design optimisation cases. Three generations of computer programs are developed. The programs combine anoptimisation problem modelling tool and FE-modelling program using three alternate methdos. The modelling and optimisation was demonstrated in the design of a new boom construction and steel structures of flat and ridge roofs. This thesis demonstrates that the most time consuming modelling time is significantly reduced. Modelling errors are reduced and the results are more reliable. A new selection rule for the evolution algorithm, which eliminates the need for constraint weight factors is tested with optimisation cases of the steel structures that include hundreds of constraints. It is seen that the tested algorithm can be used nearly as a black box without parameter settings and penalty factors of the constraints.