Initialization of Continuous Nonlinear Models Using Extended Kalman Filter

The two main objectives of Bayesian inference are to estimate parameters and states. In this thesis, we are interested in how this can be done in the framework of state-space models when there is a complete or partial lack of knowledge of the initial state of a continuous nonlinear dynamical system. In literature, similar problems have been referred to as diffuse initialization problems. This is achieved first by extending the previously developed diffuse initialization Kalman filtering techniques for discrete systems to continuous systems. The second objective is to estimate parameters using MCMC methods with a likelihood function obtained from the diffuse filtering. These methods are tried on the data collected from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC in order to estimate the parameters of the system.

Structural and operational optimisation : applications in energy systems

In this work mathematical programming models for structural and operational optimisation of energy systems are developed and applied to a selection of energy technology problems. The studied cases are taken from industrial processes and from large regional energy distribution systems. The models are based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) and on a hybrid approach of a combination of Non-Linear Programming (NLP) and Genetic Algorithms (GA). The optimisation of the structure and operation of energy systems in urban regions is treated in the work. Firstly, distributed energy systems (DES) with different energy conversion units and annual variations of consumer heating and electricity demands are considered. Secondly, district cooling systems (DCS) with cooling demands for a large number of consumers are studied, with respect to a long term planning perspective regarding to given predictions of the consumer cooling demand development in a region. The work comprises also the development of applications for heat recovery systems (HRS), where paper machine dryer section HRS is taken as an illustrative example. The heat sources in these systems are moist air streams. Models are developed for different types of equipment price functions. The approach is based on partitioning of the overall temperature range of the system into a number of temperature intervals in order to take into account the strong nonlinearities due to condensation in the heat recovery exchangers. The influence of parameter variations on the solutions of heat recovery systems is analysed firstly by varying cost factors and secondly by varying process parameters. Point-optimal solutions by a fixed parameter approach are compared to robust solutions with given parameter variation ranges. In the work enhanced utilisation of excess heat in heat recovery systems with impingement drying, electricity generation with low grade excess heat and the use of absorption heat transformers to elevate a stream temperature above the excess heat temperature are also studied.

Susteinable steelmaking by process integration

Environmental issues, including global warming, have been serious challenges realized worldwide, and they have become particularly important for the iron and steel manufacturers during the last decades. Many sites has been shut down in developed countries due to environmental regulation and pollution prevention while a large number of production plants have been established in developing countries which has changed the economy of this business. Sustainable development is a concept, which today affects economic growth, environmental protection, and social progress in setting up the basis for future ecosystem. A sustainable headway may attempt to preserve natural resources, recycle and reuse materials, prevent pollution, enhance yield and increase profitability. To achieve these objectives numerous alternatives should be examined in the sustainable process design. Conventional engineering work cannot address all of these substitutes effectively and efficiently to find an optimal route of processing. A systematic framework is needed as a tool to guide designers to make decisions based on overall concepts of the system, identifying the key bottlenecks and opportunities, which lead to an optimal design and operation of the systems. Since the 1980s, researchers have made big efforts to develop tools for what today is referred to as Process Integration. Advanced mathematics has been used in simulation models to evaluate various available alternatives considering physical, economic and environmental constraints. Improvements on feed material and operation, competitive energy market, environmental restrictions and the role of Nordic steelworks as energy supplier (electricity and district heat) make a great motivation behind integration among industries toward more sustainable operation, which could increase the overall energy efficiency and decrease environmental impacts. In this study, through different steps a model is developed for primary steelmaking, with the Finnish steel sector as a reference, to evaluate future operation concepts of a steelmaking site regarding sustainability. The research started by potential study on increasing energy efficiency and carbon dioxide reduction due to integration of steelworks with chemical plants for possible utilization of available off-gases in the system as chemical products. These off-gases from blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace and coke oven furnace are mainly contained of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, nitrogen and partially methane (in coke oven gas) and have proportionally low heating value but are currently used as fuel within these industries. Nonlinear optimization technique is used to assess integration with methanol plant under novel blast furnace technologies and (partially) substitution of coal with other reducing agents and fuels such as heavy oil, natural gas and biomass in the system. Technical aspect of integration and its effect on blast furnace operation regardless of capital expenditure of new operational units are studied to evaluate feasibility of the idea behind the research. Later on the concept of polygeneration system added and a superstructure generated with alternative routes for off-gases pretreatment and further utilization on a polygeneration system producing electricity, district heat and methanol. (Vacuum) pressure swing adsorption, membrane technology and chemical absorption for gas separation; partial oxidation, carbon dioxide and steam methane reforming for methane gasification; gas and liquid phase methanol synthesis are the main alternative process units considered in the superstructure. Due to high degree of integration in process synthesis, and optimization techniques, equation oriented modeling is chosen as an alternative and effective strategy to previous sequential modelling for process analysis to investigate suggested superstructure. A mixed integer nonlinear programming is developed to study behavior of the integrated system under different economic and environmental scenarios. Net present value and specific carbon dioxide emission is taken to compare economic and environmental aspects of integrated system respectively for different fuel systems, alternative blast furnace reductants, implementation of new blast furnace technologies, and carbon dioxide emission penalties. Sensitivity analysis, carbon distribution and the effect of external seasonal energy demand is investigated with different optimization techniques. This tool can provide useful information concerning techno-environmental and economic aspects for decision-making and estimate optimal operational condition of current and future primary steelmaking under alternative scenarios. The results of the work have demonstrated that it is possible in the future to develop steelmaking towards more sustainable operation.

Introducing Continuous Integration for C and C++ Software Development Projects on Linux Platform

Software integration is a stage in a software development process to assemble separate components to produce a single product. It is important to manage the risks involved and being able to integrate smoothly, because software cannot be released without integrating it first. Furthermore, it has been shown that the integration and testing phase can make up 40 % of the overall project costs. These issues can be mitigated by using a software engineering practice called continuous integration. This thesis work presents how continuous integration is introduced to the author's employer organisation. This includes studying how the continuous integration process works and creating the technical basis to start using the process on future projects. The implemented system supports software written in C and C++ programming languages on Linux platform, but the general concepts can be applied to any programming language and platform by selecting the appropriate tools. The results demonstrate in detail what issues need to be solved when the process is acquired in a corporate environment. Additionally, they provide an implementation and process description suitable to the organisation. The results show that continuous integration can reduce the risks involved in a software process and increase the quality of the product as well.

Smooth height/age curves from stem analysis with linear programming

[Abstract]

Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

Increasing the efficiency of disparity computation by interpolation

Tässä diplomityössä tutkitaan dispariteettikartan laskennan tehostamista interpoloimalla. Kolmiomittausta käyttämällä stereokuvasta muodostetaan ensin harva dispariteettikartta, jonka jälkeen koko kuvan kattava dispariteettikartta muodostetaan interpoloimalla. Kolmiomittausta varten täytyy tietää samaa reaalimaailman pistettä vastaavat kuvapisteet molemmissa kameroissa. Huolimatta siitä, että vastaavien pisteiden hakualue voidaan pienentää kahdesta ulottuvuudesta yhteen ulottuvuuteen käyttämällä esimerkiksi epipolaarista geometriaa, on laskennallisesti tehokkaampaa määrittää osa dispariteetikartasta interpoloimalla, kuin etsiä vastaavia kuvapisteitä stereokuvista. Myöskin johtuen stereonäköjärjestelmän kameroiden välisestä etäisyydestä, kaikki kuvien pisteet eivät löydy toisesta kuvasta. Näin ollen on mahdotonta määrittää koko kuvan kattavaa dispariteettikartaa pelkästään vastaavista pisteistä. Vastaavien pisteiden etsimiseen tässä työssä käytetään dynaamista ohjelmointia sekä korrelaatiomenetelmää. Reaalimaailman pinnat ovat yleisesti ottaen jatkuvia, joten geometrisessä mielessä on perusteltua approksimoida kuvien esittämiä pintoja interpoloimalla. On myöskin olemassa tieteellistä näyttöä, jonkamukaan ihmisen stereonäkö interpoloi objektien pintoja.

Jatkuvavaletun teräksen leikkaussuunnitelman optimointi

Teollisuuden tuotannon eri prosessien optimointi on hyvin ajankohtainen aihe. Monet ohjausjärjestelmät ovat ajalta, jolloin tietokoneiden laskentateho oli hyvin vaatimaton nykyisiin verrattuna. Työssä esitetään tuotantoprosessi, joka sisältää teräksen leikkaussuunnitelman muodostamisongelman. Valuprosessi on yksi teräksen valmistuksen välivaiheita. Siinä sopivaan laatuun saatettu sula teräs valetaan linjastoon, jossa se jähmettyy ja leikataan aihioiksi. Myöhemmissä vaiheissa teräsaihioista muokataan pienempiä kokonaisuuksia, tehtaan lopputuotteita. Jatkuvavaletut aihiot voidaan leikata tilauskannasta riippuen monella eri tavalla. Tätä varten tarvitaan leikkaussuunnitelma, jonka muodostamiseksi on ratkaistava sekalukuoptimointiongelma. Sekalukuoptimointiongelmat ovat optimoinnin haastavin muoto. Niitä on tutkittu yksinkertaisempiin optimointiongelmiin nähden vähän. Nykyisten tietokoneiden laskentateho on kuitenkin mahdollistanut raskaampien ja monimutkaisempien optimointialgoritmien käytön ja kehittämisen. Työssä on käytetty ja esitetty eräs stokastisen optimoinnin menetelmä, differentiaalievoluutioalgoritmi. Tässä työssä esitetään teräksen leikkausoptimointialgoritmi. Kehitetty optimointimenetelmä toimii dynaamisesti tehdasympäristössä käyttäjien määrittelemien parametrien mukaisesti. Työ on osa Syncron Tech Oy:n Ovako Bar Oy Ab:lle toimittamaa ohjausjärjestelmää.

Python as a programming language for the introductory programming courses

Tämä kandidaatintyö tutkii tietotekniikan perusopetuksessa keskeisen aiheen,ohjelmoinnin, alkeisopetusta ja siihen liittyviä ongelmia. Työssä perehdytään ohjelmoinnin perusopetusmenetelmiin ja opetuksen lähestymistapoihin, sekä ratkaisuihin, joilla opetusta voidaan tehostaa. Näitä ratkaisuja työssä ovat mm. ohjelmointikielen valinta, käytettävän kehitysympäristön löytäminen sekä kurssia tukevien opetusapuvälineiden etsiminen. Lisäksi kurssin läpivientiin liittyvien toimintojen, kuten harjoitusten ja mahdollisten viikkotehtävien valinta kuuluu osaksitätä työtä. Työ itsessään lähestyy aihetta tutkimalla Pythonin soveltuvuutta ohjelmoinnin alkeisopetukseen mm. vertailemalla sitä muihin olemassa oleviin yleisiin opetuskieliin, kuten C, C++ tai Java. Se tarkastelee kielen hyviä ja huonoja puolia, sekä tutkii, voidaanko Pythonia hyödyntää luontevasti pääasiallisena opetuskielenä. Lisäksi työ perehtyy siihen, mitä kaikkea kurssilla tulisi opettaa, sekä siihen, kuinka kurssin läpivienti olisi tehokkainta toteuttaa ja minkälaiset tekniset puitteet kurssin toteuttamista varten olisi järkevää valita.

Studies on integrating kinematic design method with mechanical systems simulation techniques

Theultimate goal of any research in the mechanism/kinematic/design area may be called predictive design, ie the optimisation of mechanism proportions in the design stage without requiring extensive life and wear testing. This is an ambitious goal and can be realised through development and refinement of numerical (computational) technology in order to facilitate the design analysis and optimisation of complex mechanisms, mechanical components and systems. As a part of the systematic design methodology this thesis concentrates on kinematic synthesis (kinematic design and analysis) methods in the mechanism synthesis process. The main task of kinematic design is to find all possible solutions in the form of structural parameters to accomplish the desired requirements of motion. Main formulations of kinematic design can be broadly divided to exact synthesis and approximate synthesis formulations. The exact synthesis formulation is based in solving n linear or nonlinear equations in n variables and the solutions for the problem areget by adopting closed form classical or modern algebraic solution methods or using numerical solution methods based on the polynomial continuation or homotopy. The approximate synthesis formulations is based on minimising the approximation error by direct optimisation The main drawbacks of exact synthesis formulationare: (ia) limitations of number of design specifications and (iia) failure in handling design constraints- especially inequality constraints. The main drawbacks of approximate synthesis formulations are: (ib) it is difficult to choose a proper initial linkage and (iib) it is hard to find more than one solution. Recentformulations in solving the approximate synthesis problem adopts polynomial continuation providing several solutions, but it can not handle inequality const-raints. Based on the practical design needs the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis with two exact and an unlimited number of approximate positions has also been developed. The solutions space is presented as a ground pivot map but thepole between the exact positions cannot be selected as a ground pivot. In this thesis the exact synthesis problem of planar mechanism is solved by generating all possible solutions for the optimisation process ¿ including solutions in positive dimensional solution sets - within inequality constraints of structural parameters. Through the literature research it is first shown that the algebraic and numerical solution methods ¿ used in the research area of computational kinematics ¿ are capable of solving non-parametric algebraic systems of n equations inn variables and cannot handle the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets. In this thesis the problem of positive-dimensional solutionsets is solved adopting the main principles from mathematical research area of algebraic geometry in solving parametric ( in the mathematical sense that all parameter values are considered ¿ including the degenerate cases ¿ for which the system is solvable ) algebraic systems of n equations and at least n+1 variables.Adopting the developed solution method in solving the dyadic equations in direct polynomial form in two- to three-precision-points it has been algebraically proved and numerically demonstrated that the map of the ground pivots is ambiguousand that the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets can be solved. The positive-dimensional solution sets associated with the poles might contain physically meaningful solutions in the form of optimal defectfree mechanisms. Traditionally the mechanism optimisation of hydraulically driven boommechanisms is done at early state of the design process. This will result in optimal component design rather than optimal system level design. Modern mechanismoptimisation at system level demands integration of kinematic design methods with mechanical system simulation techniques. In this thesis a new kinematic design method for hydraulically driven boom mechanism is developed and integrated in mechanical system simulation techniques. The developed kinematic design method is based on the combinations of two-precision-point formulation and on optimisation ( with mathematical programming techniques or adopting optimisation methods based on probability and statistics ) of substructures using calculated criteria from the system level response of multidegree-of-freedom mechanisms. Eg. by adopting the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis in direct optimisation (using mathematical programming techniques) with two exact positions and an unlimitednumber of approximate positions the drawbacks of (ia)-(iib) has been cancelled.The design principles of the developed method are based on the design-tree -approach of the mechanical systems and the design method ¿ in principle ¿ is capable of capturing the interrelationship between kinematic and dynamic synthesis simultaneously when the developed kinematic design method is integrated with the mechanical system simulation techniques.

Simulation Supported Robot Programming using XML

The main objective of this master's thesis is to study robot programming using simulation software, and also how to embed the simulation software into company's own robot controlling software. The further goal is to study a new communication interface to the assembly line's components -more precisely how to connect the robot cell into this new communication system. Conveyor lines are already available where the conveyors use the new communication standard. The robot cell is not yet capable of communicating with to other devices using the new communication protocols. The main problem among robot manufacturers is that they all have their own communication systems and programming languages. There has not been any common programming language to program all the different robot manufacturers robots, until the RRS (Realistic Robot Simulation) standards were developed. The RRS - II makes it possible to create the robot programs in the simulation software and it gives a common user interface for different robot manufacturers robots. This thesis will present the RRS - II standard and the robot manufacturers situation for the RRS - II support. Thesis presents how the simulation software can be embedded into company's own robot controlling software and also how the robot cell can be connected to the CAMX (Computer Aided Manufacturing using XML) communication system.

Creating dynamic continuous improvement system for Larox Corporation

Today´s organizations must have the ability to react to rapid changes in the market. These rapid changes cause pressure to continuously find new efficient ways to organize work practices. Increased competition requires businesses to become more effective and to pay attention to quality of management and to make people to understand their work's impact on the final result. The fundamentals in continmuois improvement are systematic and agile tackling of indentified individual process constraints and the fact tha nothin finally improves without changes. Successful continuous improvement requires management commitment, education, implementation, measurement, recognition and regeneration. These ingredients form the foundation, both for breakthrough projects and small step ongoing improvement activities. One part of the organization's management system are the quality tools, which provide systematic methodologies for identifying problems, defining their root causes, finding solutions, gathering and sorting of data, supporting decision making and implementing the changes, and many other management tasks. Organizational change management includes processes and tools for managing the people in an organizational level change. These tools include a structured approach, which can be used for effective transition of organizations through change. When combined with the understanding of change management of individuals, these tools provide a framework for managing people in change,

Coaching agile methods in research and development projects

Agile coaching of a project team is one way to aid learning of the agile methods. The objective of this thesis is to present the agile coaching plan and to follow how complying the plan affects to the project teams. Furthermore, the agile methods are followed how they work in the projects. Two projects are used to help the research. From the thesis point of view, the task for the first project is to coach the project team and two new coaches. The task for the second project is also to coach the project team, but this time so that one of the new coaches acts as the coach. The agile methods Scrum process and Extreme programming are utilized by the projects. In the latter, the test driven development, continuous integration and pair programming are concentrated more precisely. The results of the work are based on the observations from the projects and the analysis derived from the observations. The results are divided to the effects of the coaching and to functionality of the agile methods in the projects. Because of the small sample set, the results are directional. The presented plan, to coach the agile methods, needs developing, but the results of the functionality of the agile methods are encouraging.

BimTwin - Two component continuous process hygiene concept

The aim of this study was to examine suitability of BimTwin cleaning concept in card board machine to control microbiological activity and describe microbiological balance of the machine. In a review of literature is examined microbe and spore caused problems in paper industry. Biggest problems are deposits, which decrease runnability and cause quality errors. In this chapter is also introduced most common oxidizing biocides used in paper industry and described ATP assay as a microbiological monitoring method. In an experimental part are included BimTwin mill trial results, chemical condition monitoring methods and microbiological balance in a card board machine. In a second part are examined possibilities to effect hygiene of card board by chemical treatment of the surface size and coating. Result showed that BimTwin concept is suitable for card board machine as a cleaning concept, when chemical dosing is fitted right. For proper dosing and secure tolerable hygiene level, chemical and microbiological monitoring is significant. Determining of the microbiological balance would have need more sampling. According to acquired results, broke turned out to be the biggest microbe source. Sizing and coating experiments showed that it is possible to improve hygiene of card board by chemically treated surface size and coating color.