Statistical Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model

This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

Bayesian analysis of SEIR epidemic models

This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.

Database Rights in Safe European Home: The Path to More Rigorous Protection of Information

1. Introduction "The one that has compiled ... a database, the collection, securing the validity or presentation of which has required an essential investment, has the sole right to control the content over the whole work or over either a qualitatively or quantitatively substantial part of the work both by means of reproduction and by making them available to the public", Finnish Copyright Act, section 49.1 These are the laconic words that implemented the much-awaited and hotly debated European Community Directive on the legal protection of databases,2 the EDD, into Finnish Copyright legislation in 1998. Now in the year 2005, after more than half a decade of the domestic implementation it is yet uncertain as to the proper meaning and construction of the convoluted qualitative criteria the current legislation employs as a prerequisite for the database protection both in Finland and within the European Union. Further, this opaque Pan-European instrument has the potential of bringing about a number of far-reaching economic and cultural ramifications, which have remained largely uncharted or unobserved. Thus the task of understanding this particular and currently peculiarly European new intellectual property regime is twofold: first, to understand the mechanics and functioning of the EDD and second, to realise the potential and risks inherent in the new legislation in economic, cultural and societal dimensions. 2. Subject-matter of the study: basic issues The first part of the task mentioned above is straightforward: questions such as what is meant by the key concepts triggering the functioning of the EDD such as presentation of independent information, what constitutes an essential investment in acquiring data and when the reproduction of a given database reaches either qualitatively or quantitatively the threshold of substantiality before the right-holder of a database can avail himself of the remedies provided by the statutory framework remain unclear and call for a careful analysis. As for second task, it is already obvious that the practical importance of the legal protection providedby the database right is in the rapid increase. The accelerating transformationof information into digital form is an existing fact, not merely a reflection of a shape of things to come in the future. To take a simple example, the digitisation of a map, traditionally in paper format and protected by copyright, can provide the consumer a markedly easier and faster access to the wanted material and the price can be, depending on the current state of the marketplace, cheaper than that of the traditional form or even free by means of public lending libraries providing access to the information online. This also renders it possible for authors and publishers to make available and sell their products to markedly larger, international markets while the production and distribution costs can be kept at minimum due to the new electronic production, marketing and distributionmechanisms to mention a few. The troublesome side is for authors and publishers the vastly enhanced potential for illegal copying by electronic means, producing numerous virtually identical copies at speed. The fear of illegal copying canlead to stark technical protection that in turn can dampen down the demand for information goods and services and furthermore, efficiently hamper the right of access to the materials available lawfully in electronic form and thus weaken the possibility of access to information, education and the cultural heritage of anation or nations, a condition precedent for a functioning democracy. 3. Particular issues in Digital Economy and Information Networks All what is said above applies a fortiori to the databases. As a result of the ubiquity of the Internet and the pending breakthrough of Mobile Internet, peer-to-peer Networks, Localand Wide Local Area Networks, a rapidly increasing amount of information not protected by traditional copyright, such as various lists, catalogues and tables,3previously protected partially by the old section 49 of the Finnish Copyright act are available free or for consideration in the Internet, and by the same token importantly, numerous databases are collected in order to enable the marketing, tendering and selling products and services in above mentioned networks. Databases and the information embedded therein constitutes a pivotal element in virtually any commercial operation including product and service development, scientific research and education. A poignant but not instantaneously an obvious example of this is a database consisting of physical coordinates of a certain selected group of customers for marketing purposes through cellular phones, laptops and several handheld or vehicle-based devices connected online. These practical needs call for answer to a plethora of questions already outlined above: Has thecollection and securing the validity of this information required an essential input? What qualifies as a quantitatively or qualitatively significant investment? According to the Directive, the database comprises works, information and other independent materials, which are arranged in systematic or methodical way andare individually accessible by electronic or other means. Under what circumstances then, are the materials regarded as arranged in systematic or methodical way? Only when the protected elements of a database are established, the question concerning the scope of protection becomes acute. In digital context, the traditional notions of reproduction and making available to the public of digital materials seem to fit ill or lead into interpretations that are at variance with analogous domain as regards the lawful and illegal uses of information. This may well interfere with or rework the way in which the commercial and other operators have to establish themselves and function in the existing value networks of information products and services. 4. International sphere After the expiry of the implementation period for the European Community Directive on legal protection of databases, the goals of the Directive must have been consolidated into the domestic legislations of the current twenty-five Member States within the European Union. On one hand, these fundamental questions readily imply that the problemsrelated to correct construction of the Directive underlying the domestic legislation transpire the national boundaries. On the other hand, the disputes arisingon account of the implementation and interpretation of the Directive on the European level attract significance domestically. Consequently, the guidelines on correct interpretation of the Directive importing the practical, business-oriented solutions may well have application on European level. This underlines the exigency for a thorough analysis on the implications of the meaning and potential scope of Database protection in Finland and the European Union. This position hasto be contrasted with the larger, international sphere, which in early 2005 does differ markedly from European Union stance, directly having a negative effect on international trade particularly in digital content. A particular case in point is the USA, a database producer primus inter pares, not at least yet having aSui Generis database regime or its kin, while both the political and academic discourse on the matter abounds. 5. The objectives of the study The above mentioned background with its several open issues calls for the detailed study of thefollowing questions: -What is a database-at-law and when is a database protected by intellectual property rights, particularly by the European database regime?What is the international situation? -How is a database protected and what is its relation with other intellectual property regimes, particularly in the Digital context? -The opportunities and threats provided by current protection to creators, users and the society as a whole, including the commercial and cultural implications? -The difficult question on relation of the Database protection and protection of factual information as such. 6. Dsiposition The Study, in purporting to analyse and cast light on the questions above, is divided into three mainparts. The first part has the purpose of introducing the political and rationalbackground and subsequent legislative evolution path of the European database protection, reflected against the international backdrop on the issue. An introduction to databases, originally a vehicle of modern computing and information andcommunication technology, is also incorporated. The second part sets out the chosen and existing two-tier model of the database protection, reviewing both itscopyright and Sui Generis right facets in detail together with the emergent application of the machinery in real-life societal and particularly commercial context. Furthermore, a general outline of copyright, relevant in context of copyright databases is provided. For purposes of further comparison, a chapter on the precursor of Sui Generi, database right, the Nordic catalogue rule also ensues. The third and final part analyses the positive and negative impact of the database protection system and attempts to scrutinize the implications further in the future with some caveats and tentative recommendations, in particular as regards the convoluted issue concerning the IPR protection of information per se, a new tenet in the domain of copyright and related rights.

Entrepreneurship Education in Basic and Upper Secondary Education – Measurement and Empirical Evidence

The starting point of this study is to direct more attention to the teacher and those entrepreneurship education practices taking place in formal school to find out solutions for more effective promotion of entrepreneurship education. For this objective, the strategy-level aims of entrepreneurship education need to be operationalised into measurable and understandable teacher-level practices. Furthermore, to enable the effective development of entrepreneurship education in basic and upper secondary level education, more knowledge is needed of the state of affairs of entrepreneurship education in teaching. The purpose of the study is to increase the level of understanding of teachers’ entrepreneurship education practices, and through this to develop entrepreneurship education. This study builds on the literature on entrepreneurship education and especially those elements referring to the aims, resources, benefits, methods, and practises of entrepreneurship education. The study comprises five articles highlighting teachers’ role in entrepreneurship education. In the first article the concept of entrepreneurship and the teachers role in reflection upon his/hers approaches to entrepreneurship education are considered. The second article provides a detailed analysis of the process of developing a measurement tool to depict the teachers’ activities in entrepreneurship education. The next three articles highlight the teachers’ role in directing the entrepreneurship education in basic and upper secondary level education. Furthermore, they analyse the relationship between the entrepreneurship education practises and the teachers’ background characteristics. The results of the study suggest a wide range of conclusions and implications. First, in spite of many outspoken aims connected to entrepreneurship education, teachers have not set any aims for themselves. Additionally, aims and results seem to mix. However, it is possible to develop teachers’ target orientation by supporting their reflection skills, and through measurement and evaluation increase their understanding of their own practices. Second, applying a participatory action process it is possible to operationalise teachers’entrepreneurship education practices. It is central to include the practitioners’ perspective in the development of measures to make sure that the concepts and aims of entrepreneurship education are understood. Third, teachers’ demographic or tenure-related background characteristics do not affect their entrepreneurship education practices, but their training related to entrepreneurship education, participation in different school-level or regional planning, and their own capabilities support entrepreneurship education. Fourth, a large number of methods are applied to entrepreneurship education, and the most often used methods were different kinds of discussions, which seem to be an easy, low-threshold way for teachers to include entrepreneurship education regularly in their teaching. Field trips to business enterprises or inviting entrepreneurs to present their work in schools are used fairly seldom. Interestingly, visits outside the school are more common than visitors invited to the school. In line, most of the entrepreneurship education practices take place in a classroom. Therefore it seems to be useful to create and encourage teachers towards more in-depth cooperation with companies (e.g. via joint projects) and to network systematically. Finally, there are plenty of resources available for entrepreneurship education, such as ready-made materials, external stakeholders, support organisations, and learning games, but teachers have utilized them only marginally.