Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Drivers and Barriers of Collaboration in the Value Chain of Paperboard-Packed Consumer Goods

Value chain collaboration has been a prevailing topic for research, and there is a constantly growing interest in developing collaborative models for improved efficiency in logistics. One area of collaboration is demand information management, which enables improved visibility and decrease of inventories in the value chain. Outsourcing of non-core competencies has changed the nature of collaboration from intra-enterprise to cross-enterprise activity, and this together with increasing competition in the globalizing markets have created a need for methods and tools for collaborative work. The retailer part in the value chain of consumer packaged goods (CPG) has been studied relatively widely, proven models have been defined, and there exist several best practice collaboration cases. The information and communications technology has developed rapidly, offering efficient solutions and applications to exchange information between value chain partners. However, the majority of CPG industry still works with traditional business models and practices. This concerns especially companies operating in the upstream of the CPG value chain. Demand information for consumer packaged goods originates at retailers' counters, based on consumers' buying decisions. As this information does not get transferred along the value chain towards the upstream parties, each player needs to optimize their part, causing safety margins for inventories and speculation in purchasing decisions. The safety margins increase with each player, resulting in a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. The further the company is from the original demand information source, the more distorted the information is. This thesis concentrates on the upstream parts of the value chain of consumer packaged goods, and more precisely the packaging value chain. Packaging is becoming a part of the product with informative and interactive features, and therefore is not just a cost item needed to protect the product. The upstream part of the CPG value chain is distinctive, as the product changes after each involved party, and therefore the original demand information from the retailers cannot be utilized as such – even if it were transferred seamlessly. The objective of this thesis is to examine the main drivers for collaboration, and barriers causing the moderate adaptation level of collaborative models. Another objective is to define a collaborative demand information management model and test it in a pilot business situation in order to see if the barriers can be eliminated. The empirical part of this thesis contains three parts, all related to the research objective, but involving different target groups, viewpoints and research approaches. The study shows evidence that the main barriers for collaboration are very similar to the barriers in the lower part of the same value chain; lack of trust, lack of business case and lack of senior management commitment. Eliminating one of them – the lack of business case – is not enough to eliminate the two other barriers, as the operational model in this thesis shows. The uncertainty of the future, fear of losing an independent position in purchasing decision making and lack of commitment remain strong enough barriers to prevent the implementation of the proposed collaborative business model. The study proposes a new way of defining the value chain processes: it divides the contracting and planning process into two processes, one managing the commercial parts and the other managing the quantity and specification related issues. This model can reduce the resistance to collaboration, as the commercial part of the contracting process would remain the same as in the traditional model. The quantity/specification-related issues would be managed by the parties with the best capabilities and resources, as well as access to the original demand information. The parties in between would be involved in the planning process as well, as their impact for the next party upstream is significant. The study also highlights the future challenges for companies operating in the CPG value chain. The markets are becoming global, with toughening competition. Also, the technology development will most likely continue with a speed exceeding the adaptation capabilities of the industry. Value chains are also becoming increasingly dynamic, which means shorter and more agile business relationships, and at the same time the predictability of consumer demand is getting more difficult due to shorter product life cycles and trends. These changes will certainly have an effect on companies' operational models, but it is very difficult to estimate when and how the proven methods will gain wide enough adaptation to become standards.

Usability and Security in Medication Administration Applications

The traditional process of filling the medicine trays and dispensing the medicines to the patients in the hospitals is manually done by reading the printed paper medicine chart. This process can be very strenuous and error-prone, given the number of sub-tasks involved in the entire workflow and the dynamic nature of the work environment. Therefore, efforts are being made to digitalise the medication dispensation process by introducing a mobile application called Smart Dosing application. The introduction of the Smart Dosing application into hospital workflow raises security concerns and calls for security requirement analysis. This thesis is written as a part of the smart medication management project at Embedded Systems Laboratory, A° bo Akademi University. The project aims at digitising the medicine dispensation process by integrating information from various health systems, and making them available through the Smart Dosing application. This application is intended to be used on a tablet computer which will be incorporated on the medicine tray. The smart medication management system include the medicine tray, the tablet device, and the medicine cups with the cup holders. Introducing the Smart Dosing application should not interfere with the existing process carried out by the nurses, and it should result in minimum modifications to the tray design and the workflow. The re-designing of the tray would include integrating the device running the application into the tray in a manner that the users find it convenient and make less errors while using it. The main objective of this thesis is to enhance the security of the hospital medicine dispensation process by ensuring the security of the Smart Dosing application at various levels. The methods used for writing this thesis was to analyse how the tray design, and the application user interface design can help prevent errors and what secure technology choices have to be made before starting the development of the next prototype of the Smart Dosing application. The thesis first understands the context of the use of the application, the end-users and their needs, and the errors made in everyday medication dispensation workflow by continuous discussions with the nursing researchers. The thesis then gains insight to the vulnerabilities, threats and risks of using mobile application in hospital medication dispensation process. The resulting list of security requirements was made by analysing the previously built prototype of the Smart Dosing application, continuous interactive discussions with the nursing researchers, and an exhaustive stateof- the-art study on security risks of using mobile applications in hospital context. The thesis also uses Octave Allegro method to make the readers understand the likelihood and impact of threats, and what steps should be taken to prevent or fix them. The security requirements obtained, as a result, are a starting point for the developers of the next iteration of the prototype for the Smart Dosing application.

Usability and Security in Medication. Administration Applications

The traditional process of filling the medicine trays and dispensing the medicines to the patients in the hospitals is manually done by reading the printed paper medicinechart. This process can be very strenuous and error-prone, given the number of sub-tasksinvolved in the entire workflow and the dynamic nature of the work environment.Therefore, efforts are being made to digitalise the medication dispensation process byintroducing a mobile application called Smart Dosing application. The introduction ofthe Smart Dosing application into hospital workflow raises security concerns and callsfor security requirement analysis. This thesis is written as a part of the smart medication management project at EmbeddedSystems Laboratory, A˚bo Akademi University. The project aims at digitising the medicine dispensation process by integrating information from various health systems, and making them available through the Smart Dosing application. This application is intended to be used on a tablet computer which will be incorporated on the medicine tray. The smart medication management system include the medicine tray, the tablet device, and the medicine cups with the cup holders. Introducing the Smart Dosing application should not interfere with the existing process carried out by the nurses, and it should result in minimum modifications to the tray design and the workflow. The re-designing of the tray would include integrating the device running the application into the tray in a manner that the users find it convenient and make less errors while using it. The main objective of this thesis is to enhance the security of the hospital medicine dispensation process by ensuring the security of the Smart Dosing application at various levels. The methods used for writing this thesis was to analyse how the tray design, and the application user interface design can help prevent errors and what secure technology choices have to be made before starting the development of the next prototype of the Smart Dosing application. The thesis first understands the context of the use of the application, the end-users and their needs, and the errors made in everyday medication dispensation workflow by continuous discussions with the nursing researchers. The thesis then gains insight to the vulnerabilities, threats and risks of using mobile application in hospital medication dispensation process. The resulting list of security requirements was made by analysing the previously built prototype of the Smart Dosing application, continuous interactive discussions with the nursing researchers, and an exhaustive state-of-the-art study on security risks of using mobile applications in hospital context. The thesis also uses Octave Allegro method to make the readers understand the likelihood and impact of threats, and what steps should be taken to prevent or fix them. The security requirements obtained, as a result, are a starting point for the developers of the next iteration of the prototype for the Smart Dosing application.

Nested Rollout Policy Adaptation for optimizing vehicle selection in complex VRPs

The goal of Vehicle Routing Problems (VRP) and their variations is to transport a set of orders with the minimum number of vehicles at least cost. Most approaches are designed to solve specific problem variations independently, whereas in real world applications, different constraints are handled concurrently. This research extends solutions obtained for the traveling salesman problem with time windows to a much wider class of route planning problems in logistics. The work describes a novel approach that:  supports a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles  dynamically reduces the number of vehicles  respects individual capacity restrictions  satisfies pickup and delivery constraints  takes Hamiltonian paths (rather than cycles) The proposed approach uses Monte-Carlo Tree Search and in particular Nested Rollout Policy Adaptation. For the evaluation of the work, real data from the industry was obtained and tested and the results are reported.