Artificially Intelligent and Adaptive Methods for Prediction and Analysis of Superheater Fireside Corrosion in Fluidized Bed Boilers

Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses for the power companies. With a reliable corrosion prediction method, the plants can be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions may be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. Growing interest to use recycled fuels creates additional demands for the prediction of corrosion potential. Models depending on corrosion theories will fail, if relations between the inputs and the output are poorly known. A prediction model based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network is able to improve its performance as the amount of data increases. The corrosion rate of a superheater material can most reliably be detected with a test done in a test combustor or in a commercial boiler. The steel samples can be located in a special, temperature-controlled probe, and exposed to the corrosive environment for a desired time. These tests give information about the average corrosion potential in that environment. Samples may also be cut from superheaters during shutdowns. The analysis ofsamples taken from probes or superheaters after exposure to corrosive environment is a demanding task: if the corrosive contaminants can be reliably analyzed, the corrosion chemistry can be determined, and an estimate of the material lifetime can be given. In cases where the reason for corrosion is not clear, the determination of the corrosion chemistry and the lifetime estimation is more demanding. In order to provide a laboratory tool for the analysis and prediction, a newapproach was chosen. During this study, the following tools were generated: · Amodel for the prediction of superheater fireside corrosion, based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network, build upon a corrosion database developed offuel and bed material analyses, and measured corrosion data. The developed model predicts superheater corrosion with high accuracy at the early stages of a project. · An adaptive corrosion analysis tool based on image analysis, constructedas an expert system. This system utilizes implementation of user-defined algorithms, which allows the development of an artificially intelligent system for thetask. According to the results of the analyses, several new rules were developed for the determination of the degree and type of corrosion. By combining these two tools, a user-friendly expert system for the prediction and analyses of superheater fireside corrosion was developed. This tool may also be used for the minimization of corrosion risks by the design of fluidized bed boilers.

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Automated, adaptive methods for forest inventory

Forest inventories are used to estimate forest characteristics and the condition of forest for many different applications: operational tree logging for forest industry, forest health state estimation, carbon balance estimation, land-cover and land use analysis in order to avoid forest degradation etc. Recent inventory methods are strongly based on remote sensing data combined with field sample measurements, which are used to define estimates covering the whole area of interest. Remote sensing data from satellites, aerial photographs or aerial laser scannings are used, depending on the scale of inventory. To be applicable in operational use, forest inventory methods need to be easily adjusted to local conditions of the study area at hand. All the data handling and parameter tuning should be objective and automated as much as possible. The methods also need to be robust when applied to different forest types. Since there generally are no extensive direct physical models connecting the remote sensing data from different sources to the forest parameters that are estimated, mathematical estimation models are of "black-box" type, connecting the independent auxiliary data to dependent response data with linear or nonlinear arbitrary models. To avoid redundant complexity and over-fitting of the model, which is based on up to hundreds of possibly collinear variables extracted from the auxiliary data, variable selection is needed. To connect the auxiliary data to the inventory parameters that are estimated, field work must be performed. In larger study areas with dense forests, field work is expensive, and should therefore be minimized. To get cost-efficient inventories, field work could partly be replaced with information from formerly measured sites, databases. The work in this thesis is devoted to the development of automated, adaptive computation methods for aerial forest inventory. The mathematical model parameter definition steps are automated, and the cost-efficiency is improved by setting up a procedure that utilizes databases in the estimation of new area characteristics.

Exploring Adaptive Implementation of On-Chip Networks

As technology geometries have shrunk to the deep submicron regime, the communication delay and power consumption of global interconnections in high performance Multi- Processor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoCs) are becoming a major bottleneck. The Network-on- Chip (NoC) architecture paradigm, based on a modular packet-switched mechanism, can address many of the on-chip communication issues such as performance limitations of long interconnects and integration of large number of Processing Elements (PEs) on a chip. The choice of routing protocol and NoC structure can have a significant impact on performance and power consumption in on-chip networks. In addition, building a high performance, area and energy efficient on-chip network for multicore architectures requires a novel on-chip router allowing a larger network to be integrated on a single die with reduced power consumption. On top of that, network interfaces are employed to decouple computation resources from communication resources, to provide the synchronization between them, and to achieve backward compatibility with existing IP cores. Three adaptive routing algorithms are presented as a part of this thesis. The first presented routing protocol is a congestion-aware adaptive routing algorithm for 2D mesh NoCs which does not support multicast (one-to-many) traffic while the other two protocols are adaptive routing models supporting both unicast (one-to-one) and multicast traffic. A streamlined on-chip router architecture is also presented for avoiding congested areas in 2D mesh NoCs via employing efficient input and output selection. The output selection utilizes an adaptive routing algorithm based on the congestion condition of neighboring routers while the input selection allows packets to be serviced from each input port according to its congestion level. Moreover, in order to increase memory parallelism and bring compatibility with existing IP cores in network-based multiprocessor architectures, adaptive network interface architectures are presented to use multiple SDRAMs which can be accessed simultaneously. In addition, a smart memory controller is integrated in the adaptive network interface to improve the memory utilization and reduce both memory and network latencies. Three Dimensional Integrated Circuits (3D ICs) have been emerging as a viable candidate to achieve better performance and package density as compared to traditional 2D ICs. In addition, combining the benefits of 3D IC and NoC schemes provides a significant performance gain for 3D architectures. In recent years, inter-layer communication across multiple stacked layers (vertical channel) has attracted a lot of interest. In this thesis, a novel adaptive pipeline bus structure is proposed for inter-layer communication to improve the performance by reducing the delay and complexity of traditional bus arbitration. In addition, two mesh-based topologies for 3D architectures are also introduced to mitigate the inter-layer footprint and power dissipation on each layer with a small performance penalty.

Mathematics inspired by Darwin. Adaptive dynamics of dispersal and cooperation

In 1859, Charles Darwin published his theory of evolution by natural selection, the process occurring based on fitness benefits and fitness costs at the individual level. Traditionally, evolution has been investigated by biologists, but it has induced mathematical approaches, too. For example, adaptive dynamics has proven to be a very applicable framework to the purpose. Its core concept is the invasion fitness, the sign of which tells whether a mutant phenotype can invade the prevalent phenotype. In this thesis, four real-world applications on evolutionary questions are provided. Inspiration for the first two studies arose from a cold-adapted species, American pika. First, it is studied how the global climate change may affect the evolution of dispersal and viability of pika metapopulations. Based on the results gained here, it is shown that the evolution of dispersal can result in extinction and indeed, evolution of dispersalshould be incorporated into the viability analysis of species living in fragmented habitats. The second study is focused on the evolution of densitydependent dispersal in metapopulations with small habitat patches. It resulted a very surprising unintuitive evolutionary phenomenon, how a non-monotone density-dependent dispersal may evolve. Cooperation is surprisingly common in many levels of life, despite of its obvious vulnerability to selfish cheating. This motivated two applications. First, it is shown that density-dependent cooperative investment can evolve to have a qualitatively different, monotone or non-monotone, form depending on modelling details. The last study investigates the evolution of investing into two public-goods resources. The results suggest one general path by which labour division can arise via evolutionary branching. In addition to applications, two novel methodological derivations of fitness measures in structured metapopulations are given.

Adaptive Dynamics of Resource Specialization

Ecological specialization in resource utilization has various facades ranging from nutritional resources via host use of parasites or phytophagous insects to local adaptation in different habitats. Therefore, the evolution of specialization affects the evolution of most other traits, which makes it one of the core issues in the theory of evolution. Hence, the evolution of specialization has gained enormous amounts of research interest, starting already from Darwin’s Origin of species in 1859. Vast majority of the theoretical studies has, however, focused on the mathematically most simple case with well-mixed populations and equilibrium dynamics. This thesis explores the possibilities to extend the evolutionary analysis of resource usage to spatially heterogeneous metapopulation models and to models with non-equilibrium dynamics. These extensions are enabled by the recent advances in the field of adaptive dynamics, which allows for a mechanistic derivation of the invasion-fitness function based on the ecological dynamics. In the evolutionary analyses, special focus is set to the case with two substitutable renewable resources. In this case, the most striking questions are, whether a generalist species is able to coexist with the two specialist species, and can such trimorphic coexistence be attained through natural selection starting from a monomorphic population. This is shown possible both due to spatial heterogeneity and due to non-equilibrium dynamics. In addition, it is shown that chaotic dynamics may sometimes inflict evolutionary suicide or cyclic evolutionary dynamics. Moreover, the relations between various ecological parameters and evolutionary dynamics are investigated. Especially, the relation between specialization and dispersal propensity turns out to be counter-intuitively non-monotonous. This observation served as inspiration to the analysis of joint evolution of dispersal and specialization, which may provide the most natural explanation to the observed coexistence of specialist and generalist species.

Finnish embryo transfer breeding program "ASMO" : description of the goals and a summary of the results of initial selection

Selostus: Alkionsiirtojalostusohjelma "ASMO", sen tavoitteet ja yhteenveto alkuvalinnan tuloksista

Selection of Salix myrsinifolia clones for biomass forestry in Finland

Summary

Inventory of sparse forest populations using adaptive cluster sampling

Abstract

Market Area Selection of aSawmill Machinery Manufacturer

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena on kartoittaa suomalaisen sahakonevalmistaja Veisto Oy:n kannalta lähitulevaisuuden merkittävimmät markkina-alueet, joiden sahateollisuuteen tehdään lähivuosina eniten korkean teknologian investointeja. Markkina-alueiden valinnassa sovelletaan sekä numeerisiin tilastoihin että asiantuntijahaastatteluihin pohjautuvia ranking-menetelmiä. Työn ensimmäinen osa käsittelee kansainvälisten teollisten markkinoiden ominaispiirteitä ja niiden analysointia. Pääpaino on kuitenkin screening-menetelmillä, markkina-alueiden vertailumenetelmilläja päätöksenteon työkaluilla. Työn toisessa osassa keskitytään markkina-alueiden screeningiin, analysointiin ja maiden eri ominaisuuksien vertailuun. Päätöksentekomatriiseja hyödyntäen valitaan Veisto Oy:lle kolme tällä hetkellä houkuttelevinta markkina-aluetta, joita ovat Venäjä, USA:n kaakkoisosan Southern Yellow Pine -alue sekä Etelä-Amerikan suurimmat sahaajamaat (Brasilia, Argentiina ja Chile) yhtenä alueena. Valituilla alueilla on Veiston kannalta omat haasteensa: USA:ssa vahvat kotimaiset kilpailijat ja uusien referenssien saaminen, Venäjällä investointien epävarmuus ja markkina-alueen laajuuden tuoma monimuotoisuus sekä Etelä-Amerikassa vahvat ruotsalaiset kilpailijat sekä etenkin Brasilian osalta tuntuvat suojatullit.

Guidelines for supplier selection and performance evaluation in the case-company

Tutkielmantavoitteena oli luoda ohjeistus toimittajan valinnasta ja suorituskyvyn arvioinnista case - yrityksen, Exel Oyj:n, käyttöön. Ohjeistuksen tarkoituksena oli ollalähtökohtana toimittajan valinta- ja suoristuskyvyn arviointiprosessien kehittämisessä. Tutkielma keskittyy esittelemään toimittajan valintakriteereitä ja toimittajan suorituskyvyn arviointikriteereitä. Kriteerit valittiin ja analysoitiin teorian ja empirian avulla ja kriteereistä tehtiin selkeät listaukset. Näitä listoja käytettiin avuksi pohdittaessa uusia valintakriteereitä ja suorituskyvyn arviointikriteereitä, joita case -yritys voi jatkossa käyttää. Tutkielmassa käytiin läpi myös toimittajan valintaprosessi jaapuvälineitä ja mittareita toimittajan arviointiin liittyen. Empiirisen aineiston keruu toteutettiin haastattelemalla hankintapäällikköä sekä keräämällä tietoavuosikertomuksesta ja yrityksen internet sivuilta. Tutkielman tuloksena saatiinlistauksia kriteereistä, joita yritys voi hyödyntää jatkossa sekä listaukset kriteereistä, jotka valittiin alustavasti yrityksen käyttöön.