Kaukolämpöliiketoiminnan kehittäminen Mäntsälän Sähkö osakeyhtiössä

Tämän diplomityön tarkoitus oli selvittää Mäntsälän Sähkö Oy:n kaukolämpöliiketoiminnan nykytila ja kehityskohteet. Tutkimuskysymykset olivat: 1) Millaisilla toimenpiteillä varmistetaan kaukolämpöliiketoiminnan kannattavuus tulevaisuudessa? ja 2) Millaisia mahdollisuuksia älykäs kaukolämpö tuo kaukolämpöliiketoiminnalle? Tutkimus suoritettiin perehtymällä aiheen kirjallisuuteen ja uutisiin. Takaisinmaksuajan menetelmällä arvioitiin maakaasun korvaamisen kannattavuutta. Työn tuloksena voitiin todeta, että kaukolämmön hinnoittelua kannattaa kehittää kustannusvastaavampaan suuntaan. Nykyinen kaukolämmön energiankulutukseen painottuva hinnoittelu ei sovi uusille rakennuksille, jotka kuluttavat vähän energiaa. Yleistyvät hybridilämmitysjärjestelmät on otettava huomioon hinnoittelussa. Kaukolämmön kausihinnoittelu toisi etuja asiakkaalle, kaukolämpöyhtiölle sekä ympäristölle. Kaukolämmön kulutuksen tuntimittaus mahdollistaisi siirtymisen kaukolämpötehoon perustuvaan hinnoitteluun. Kaukolämmön hinta on ollut Mäntsälän Sähkö Oy:llä suhteellisen korkea. Korkea hinta johtuu enimmäkseen maakaasulla tuotetun kaukolämmön korkeista tuotantokustannuksista. Kaukolämmön tuotantoa voidaan kehittää kannattavammaksi, vaikka lämmöntalteenottolaitoksen oletettu lämmöntuotanto kattaa Mäntsälän lämmöntarpeesta noin puolet ja vähentää tuotantokustannuksia. Nykyisten maakaasukattiloiden käyttäminen pelletin pölypolttoon olisi teknisten muutoksien avulla mahdollista. Pölypolton kannattavuus riippuu erityisesti puupelletin ja maakaasun hintaerosta. Älykäs kaukolämpöjärjestelmä voisi automaattisesti tasoittaa kaukolämmön kysyntää yhdessä lämpövaraston kanssa. Tällöin huippulämpölaitosten käyttö vähentyisi ja lämmöntuotannon kustannukset pienentyisivät. Älykäs kaukolämpöjärjestelmä ja kaukolämpötehon tuntimittaus mahdollistaisivat myös kaksisuuntaisen kaukolämpökaupan.

Innovations of ageing and societal transition : Dynamics of change of the socio-technical regime of ageing

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the dynamics of the socio-technical system in the field of ageing. The study stems from the notion that the ageing of the population as a powerful megatrend has wide societal effects, and is not just a matter for the social and health sector. The central topic in the study is change: not only the age structures and structures of society are changing, but also at the same time there is constant development, for instance, in technologies, infrastructures and cultural perceptions. The changing concept of innovation has widened the understanding of innovations related to ageing from medical and assistive technological innovations to service and social innovations, as well as systemic innovations at different levels, which means the intertwined and co-evolutionary change in technologies, structures, services and thinking models. By the same token, the perceptions of older people and old age are becoming more multi-faceted: old age is no longer equated to illnesses and decline, but visions of active ageing and a third age have emerged, which are framed by choices, opportunities, resources and consumption in later life. The research task in this study is to open up the processes and mechanisms of change in the field of ageing, which are studied as a complex, multi-level and interrelated socio-technical system. The question is about co-effective elements consisting of macro-level landscape changes, the existing socio-technical regime (the rule system, practices and structures) and bottom-up niche-innovations. Societal transitions do not account for the things inside the regime alone, or for the long-term changes in the landscape, nor for the radical innovations, but for the interplay between all these levels. The research problem is studied through five research articles, which offer micro-level case studies to macro-level phenomenon. Each of the articles focus on different aspects related to ageing and change, and utilise various datasets. The framework of this study leans on the studies of socio-technical systems and multi-level perspective on transitions mainly developed by Frank Geels. Essential factors in transition from one socio-technological regime to another are the co-evolutionary processes between landscape changes, regime level and experimental niches. Landscape level changes, like the ageing of the population, destabilise the regime in the forms of coming pressures. This destabilization offers windows for opportunity to niche-innovations outside or at fringe of the regime, which, through their breakthrough, accelerate the transition process. However, the change is not easy because of various kinds of lock-ins and inertia, which tend to maintain the stability of the regime. In this dissertation, a constructionist approach of society is applied leaning mainly to the ideas of Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration, with the dual nature of structures. The change is taking place in the interplay between actors and structures: structures shape people’s practices, but at the same time these practices constitute and reproduce social systems. Technology and other material aspects, as part of socio-technical systems, and the use of them, also take part in the structuration process. The findings of the study point out that co-evolutionary and co-effective relationships between economic, cultural, technological and institutional fields, as well as relationships between landscape changes, changes in the local and regime-level practices and rule systems, are a very complex and multi-level dynamic socio-technical phenomenon. At the landscape level of ageing, which creates the pressures and triggers to the regime change, there are three remarkable megatrends: demographic change, changes in the global economy and the development of technologies. These exert pressures to the socio-technical regime, which as a rule system is experiencing changes in the form of new markets and consumer habits, new ways of perceiving ageing, new models of organising the health care and other services and as new ways of considering innovation and innovativeness. There are also inner dynamics in the relationships between these aspects within the regime. These are interrelated and coconstructed: the prevailing perceptions of ageing and innovation, for instance, reflect the ageing policies, innovation policies, societal structures, organising models, technology and scientific discussion, and vice versa. Technology is part of the inner dynamics of the sociotechnological regime. Physical properties of the artefacts set limitations and opportunities with regard to their functions and uses. The use of and discussion about technology, contributes producing and reproducing the perceptions of old age. For societal transition, micro-level changes are also needed, in form of niche-innovations, for instance new services, organisational models or new technologies, Regimes, as stabilitystriven systems, tend to generate incremental innovations, but radically new innovations are generated in experimental niches protected from ‘normal’ market selection. The windows of opportunity for radical novelties may be opened if the circumstances are favourable for instance by tensions in the socio-technical regime affected by landscape level changes. This dissertation indicates that a change is taking place, firstly, in the dynamic interactionbetween levels, as a result of purposive action and governance to some extent. Breaking the inertia and using the window of opportunity for change and innovation offered by dynamics between levels, presupposes the actors’ special capabilities and actions such as dynamic capabilities and distance management. Secondly, the change is taking place the socio-technological negotiations inside the regime: interaction between technological and social, which is embodied in the use of technology. The use of technology includes small-level contextual scripts that also participate in forming broader societal scripts (for instance defining old age at the society level), which in their turn affect the formation of policies for innovation and ageing. Thirdly, the change is taking place by the means of active formation of the multi-actor innovation networks, where the role of distance management is crucial to facilitate the communication between actors coming from different backgrounds as well as to help the niches born outside the regime to utilise the window of opportunity offered by regime destabilisation. This dissertation has both theoretical and practical contributions. This study participates in the discussion of action-oriented view on transition by opening up of the socio-technological, coevolutionary processes of the multi-faceted phenomenon of ageing, which has lacked systematic analyses. The focus of this study, however, is not on the large-scale coordination and governance, but rather on opening up the incremental elements and structuration processes, which contribute to the transition little by little, and which can be affected to. This increases the practical importance of this dissertation, by highlighting the importance of very tiny, everyday elements in the change processes in the long run.

Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Changes in understorey biomass and species composition after water level drawdown on pine mires in southern Finland

Tiivistelmä: Vedenpinnan alenemisen vaikutus sararämeen pintakasvillisuuden biomassaan ja lajistoon

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Abstract

Seasonal and circadian changes in activity rates of adult farm blue foxes

Selostus: Tarhattujen sinikettujen vuodenaikainen ja vuorokautinen aktiivisuus

Changes in the thermal growing season in Nordic countries during the past century and prospects for the future

Selostus: Termisen kasvukauden muutokset Pohjoismaissa viimeisen vuosisadan aikana ja tulevaisuudessa

Seasonal changes in platform use by adult farmbred silver foxes (Vulpes vulpes)

Selostus: Aikuisten hopeakettujen hyllynkäytön vuodenaikaisvaihtelut