Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

Studies on integrating kinematic design method with mechanical systems simulation techniques

Theultimate goal of any research in the mechanism/kinematic/design area may be called predictive design, ie the optimisation of mechanism proportions in the design stage without requiring extensive life and wear testing. This is an ambitious goal and can be realised through development and refinement of numerical (computational) technology in order to facilitate the design analysis and optimisation of complex mechanisms, mechanical components and systems. As a part of the systematic design methodology this thesis concentrates on kinematic synthesis (kinematic design and analysis) methods in the mechanism synthesis process. The main task of kinematic design is to find all possible solutions in the form of structural parameters to accomplish the desired requirements of motion. Main formulations of kinematic design can be broadly divided to exact synthesis and approximate synthesis formulations. The exact synthesis formulation is based in solving n linear or nonlinear equations in n variables and the solutions for the problem areget by adopting closed form classical or modern algebraic solution methods or using numerical solution methods based on the polynomial continuation or homotopy. The approximate synthesis formulations is based on minimising the approximation error by direct optimisation The main drawbacks of exact synthesis formulationare: (ia) limitations of number of design specifications and (iia) failure in handling design constraints- especially inequality constraints. The main drawbacks of approximate synthesis formulations are: (ib) it is difficult to choose a proper initial linkage and (iib) it is hard to find more than one solution. Recentformulations in solving the approximate synthesis problem adopts polynomial continuation providing several solutions, but it can not handle inequality const-raints. Based on the practical design needs the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis with two exact and an unlimited number of approximate positions has also been developed. The solutions space is presented as a ground pivot map but thepole between the exact positions cannot be selected as a ground pivot. In this thesis the exact synthesis problem of planar mechanism is solved by generating all possible solutions for the optimisation process ¿ including solutions in positive dimensional solution sets - within inequality constraints of structural parameters. Through the literature research it is first shown that the algebraic and numerical solution methods ¿ used in the research area of computational kinematics ¿ are capable of solving non-parametric algebraic systems of n equations inn variables and cannot handle the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets. In this thesis the problem of positive-dimensional solutionsets is solved adopting the main principles from mathematical research area of algebraic geometry in solving parametric ( in the mathematical sense that all parameter values are considered ¿ including the degenerate cases ¿ for which the system is solvable ) algebraic systems of n equations and at least n+1 variables.Adopting the developed solution method in solving the dyadic equations in direct polynomial form in two- to three-precision-points it has been algebraically proved and numerically demonstrated that the map of the ground pivots is ambiguousand that the singularities associated with positive-dimensional solution sets can be solved. The positive-dimensional solution sets associated with the poles might contain physically meaningful solutions in the form of optimal defectfree mechanisms. Traditionally the mechanism optimisation of hydraulically driven boommechanisms is done at early state of the design process. This will result in optimal component design rather than optimal system level design. Modern mechanismoptimisation at system level demands integration of kinematic design methods with mechanical system simulation techniques. In this thesis a new kinematic design method for hydraulically driven boom mechanism is developed and integrated in mechanical system simulation techniques. The developed kinematic design method is based on the combinations of two-precision-point formulation and on optimisation ( with mathematical programming techniques or adopting optimisation methods based on probability and statistics ) of substructures using calculated criteria from the system level response of multidegree-of-freedom mechanisms. Eg. by adopting the mixed exact-approximate position synthesis in direct optimisation (using mathematical programming techniques) with two exact positions and an unlimitednumber of approximate positions the drawbacks of (ia)-(iib) has been cancelled.The design principles of the developed method are based on the design-tree -approach of the mechanical systems and the design method ¿ in principle ¿ is capable of capturing the interrelationship between kinematic and dynamic synthesis simultaneously when the developed kinematic design method is integrated with the mechanical system simulation techniques.

Distribution systems of the food sector in Russia: the perspective of Finnish food industry

Finnish food producers' trade with Russia has experienced profound changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Simultaneously, the distribution systems of foodstuffs have changed remarkably. This study sheds some light into these changes and analyses the current situation in distribution systems of foodstuffs in Russia. In addition, the study discusses the possibilities of Finnish food producers to get more of their products to the shelves of Russian food retail stores. Before the 1998 financial crisis, the import of foreign foodstuffs was booming in Russia due to the overvalued rouble. As a result of the financial crisis, food import collapsed. The export of Finnish foodstuffs to Russia has been slowly recovering during the past few years, but in the most important product categories the pre-crisis levels have so far not been reached and maybe will not be reached. In certain product categories the growth has been only marginal. It seems that starting localproduction will become increasingly important in the future. This is further encouraged by the fact that Russian consumers favour domestic food products. Russian consumers are very price conscious and demand quality in food products. The perceived price-quality ratio is an important criterion in the purchase decision.The majority of foodstuff retail is still conducted via unorganised forms of trade (e.g. kiosks and marketplaces) but modern retail chains are developing at a fast pace in Russia. They are also expected to dominate the retail trade in foodstuffs over the unorganised forms of trade in the future. This will change the distribution systems as well. The retail chains are trying to shorten the distribution chain, similarly to what has been seen in the Western countries. This together with the strengthening of retail chains is likely to shrink the role of wholesalers, as the chains increasingly want to work directly with the producers. Many large retail chains are acquiring or have already acquired a distribution centre or centres in order to boost efficiency and control the flow of products. The strengthening of the retail chains also gives them power in negotiations, which the producers and distributors have to adjust to. For example store entry fees and retail chains' own private label products pose challenges to the food producers. In the food production sector the competition is fierce, as large Russianand foreign producers want to ensure their piece of the market. The largest producers utilise their size: they invest in big marketing campaigns and are willing to pay high entry fees to retail chains in order to secure a place on the store shelves and to build a strong brand in Russia. This complicates the situation from the viewpoint of small producers. Currently, the most popular type of distribution system among the interviewed Finnish food producers is based on a network of local distributors. There is, however, a strong consensus on the importanceof starting local production in order to be a serious actor in Russia in the future. Factors that hinder the starting of local production include the lack of local infrastructure and qualified staff, and the low risk tolerance of Finnish firms. Major barriers for entry in Russia are the actions of authorities, fierce competition, fragmented market and Finnish producers' heavy production costs. The suggested strategies for increasing the market share include focusing geographically or segment-wise, introducing new products, starting local production, andcooperation between Finnish producers. Smallness was one reason why Finnish producers had to cut down their operations in Russia due to the 1998 crisis. Smaller producers had fewer resources to tolerate losses during the period of crisis. Smallness is reflected also on trade negotiations with retail chains and distributors. It makes it harder to cope with the store entry fees and to differentiatefrom the mass of products propped up by expensive advertising. Finally, it makes it harder for Finnish producers to start or expand local production, as it is more difficult for a small producer to get financing and to tolerate the increased risks. Compensating for the smallness might become the crucial factor determining the future success of Finnish food producers in the Russian market.

Managing the Front End of Innovation in a Networked Company Environment - Combining Strategy, Processes and Systems of Innovation

The objective of the thesis is to enhance the understanding about the management of the front end phases of the innovation process in a networked environment. The thesis approaches the front end of innovation from three perspectives, including the strategy, processes and systems of innovation. The purpose of the use of different perspectives in the thesis is that of providing an extensive systemic view of the front end, and uncovering the complex nature of innovation management. The context of the research is the networked operating environment of firms. The unit of analysis is the firm itself or its innovation processes, which means that this research approaches the innovation networks from the point of view of a firm. The strategy perspective of the thesis emphasises the importance of purposeful innovation management, the innovation strategy of firms. The role of innovation processes is critical in carrying out innovation strategies in practice, supporting the development of organizational routines for innovation, and driving the strategic renewal of companies. The primary focus of the thesis from systems perspective is on idea management systems, which are defined as a part of innovation management systems, and defined for this thesis as any working combination of methodology and tools (manual or IT-supported) that enhance the management of innovations within their early phases. The main contribution of the thesis are the managerial frameworks developed for managing the front end of innovation, which purposefully “wire” the front end of innovation into the strategy and business processes of a firm. The thesis contributes to modern innovation management by connecting the internal and external collaboration networks as foundational elements for successful management of the early phases of innovation processes in a dynamic environment. The innovation capability of a firm is largely defined by its ability to rely on and make use of internal and external collaboration already during the front end activities, which by definition include opportunity identification and analysis, idea generation, profileration and selection, and concept definition. More specifically, coordination of the interfaces between these activities, and between the internal and external innovation environments of a firm is emphasised. The role of information systems, in particular idea management systems, is to support and delineate the innovation-oriented behaviour and interaction of individuals and organizations during front end activities. The findings and frameworks developed in the thesis can be used by companies for purposeful promotion of their front end processes. The thesis provides a systemic strategy framework for managing the front end of innovation – not as a separate process, but as an elemental bundle ofactivities that is closely linked to the overall innovation process and strategy of a firm in a distributed environment. The theoretical contribution of the thesis relies on the advancement of the open innovation paradigm in the strategic context of a firm within its internal and external innovation environments. This thesis applies the constructive research approach and case study methodology to provide theoretically significant results, which are also practically beneficial.

Geological map of Europe exhibiting the different systems of rocks according to the most recent researches and inedited materials by Roderick I. Murchison and James Nicol ; constructed by A. Keith Johnston

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

Solving large sparse linear systems over the field GF(2)

Nowadays problem of solving sparse linear systems over the field GF(2) remain as a challenge. The popular approach is to improve existing methods such as the block Lanczos method (the Montgomery method) and the Wiedemann-Coppersmith method. Both these methods are considered in the thesis in details: there are their modifications and computational estimation for each process. It demonstrates the most complicated parts of these methods and gives the idea how to improve computations in software point of view. The research provides the implementation of accelerated binary matrix operations computer library which helps to make the progress steps in the Montgomery and in the Wiedemann-Coppersmith methods faster.

Failure modes of passive decay heat removing safety systems of modern nuclear power plants

The purpose of this master’s thesis is to gain an understanding of passive safety systems’ role in modern nuclear reactors projects and to research the failure modes of passive decay heat removal safety systems which use phenomenon of natural circulation. Another purpose is to identify the main physical principles and phenomena which are used to establish passive safety tools in nuclear power plants. The work describes passive decay heat removal systems used in AES-2006 project and focuses on the behavior of SPOT PG system. The descriptions of the main large-scale research facilities of the passive safety systems of the AES-2006 power plant are also included. The work contains the calculations of the SPOT PG system, which was modeled with thermal-hydraulic system code TRACE. The dimensions of the calculation model are set according to the dimensions of the real SPOT PG system. In these calculations three parameters are investigated as a function of decay heat power: the pressure of the system, the natural circulation mass flow rate around the closed loop, and the level of liquid in the downcomer. The purpose of the calculations is to test the ability of the SPOT PG system to remove the decay heat from the primary side of the nuclear reactor in case of failure of one, two, or three loops out of four. The calculations show that three loops of the SPOT PG system have adequate capacity to provide the necessary level of safety. In conclusion, the work supports the view that passive systems could be widely spread in modern nuclear projects.

Study on measuring Systems of Innovation on National level- case Finland

Innovation improves human affluence and comfort and is key driver of nation’s economic progression. This study focuses on National innovation systems in general and Finnish national innovation system in particular. It is known that innovation process does not work in isolation; rather it is an outcome of role played numerous actors. In this study three aspects are explained- firstly, to define the most important actors of National innovation systems and secondly, a framework to analyze National innovation system. Third aspect of this study highlights and analyzes the key aspects of Finnish National Innovation system. Moreover, during the course of this study emphasis was given on the utmost central processes which are required to come off in innovation system as they can successfully lead towards innovation.

Metallien kompleksinmuodostus liuosfaasissa

Liuoksessa metallit muodostavat erilaisia koordinatioyhdisteitä epäorgaanisten ja orgaanisten anionien ja neutraalien molekyylien kanssa. Erityisesti siirtymämetalleilla on voimakas taipumus kompleksiyhdisteiden muodostamiseen elektroneja sisältävien 3-, 4-, ja 5d orbitaaliensa johdosta. Samassa liuoksessa voi samanaikaisesti esiintyä useita erilaisia, mutta samoista lähtöaineista muodostuneita, kompleksiyhdisteitä. Kompleksinmuodostusreaktiot ovat tasapainoreaktioita. Usein tasapainovakiot on esitetty termodynaamisina tasapainovakioina eli ne ovat päteviä standarditilassa. Standarditilan tasapainovakioista voidaan johtaa missä tahansa liuoksessa pätevät vakiot erilaisten Debye-Hückel-teoriasta johdettujen laskentamenetelmien avulla. Metalli-ligandiparin jakautuminen erilaisiksi kompleksiyhdisteiksi voidaan mallintaa kun tunnetaan muodostumisreaktioiden tasapainovakiot. Muodostumisreaktioiden tasapainovakioiden yhtälöistä voidaan johtaa epälineaarinen yhtälöryhmä, joka voidaan ratkaista jollakin numeerisella ratkaisimella. Esimerkiksi Matlab-ohjelmiston sisältämä fsolve-ratkaisin soveltuu tällaiseen tehtävään. Osana tätä työtä on kirjoitettu Matlab-sovellus, jolla voidaan mallintaa kationi-ligandiparin jakautumista koordinaatioyhdisteiksi tunnettujen tasapainovakioiden perusteella.

Numbers and Languages

The thesis presents results obtained during the authors PhD-studies. First systems of language equations of a simple form consisting of just two equations are proved to be computationally universal. These are systems over unary alphabet, that are seen as systems of equations over natural numbers. The systems contain only an equation X+A=B and an equation X+X+C=X+X+D, where A, B, C and D are eventually periodic constants. It is proved that for every recursive set S there exists natural numbers p and d, and eventually periodic sets A, B, C and D such that a number n is in S if and only if np+d is in the unique solution of the abovementioned system of two equations, so all recursive sets can be represented in an encoded form. It is also proved that all recursive sets cannot be represented as they are, so the encoding is really needed. Furthermore, it is proved that the family of languages generated by Boolean grammars is closed under injective gsm-mappings and inverse gsm-mappings. The arguments apply also for the families of unambiguous Boolean languages, conjunctive languages and unambiguous languages. Finally, characterizations for morphisims preserving subfamilies of context-free languages are presented. It is shown that the families of deterministic and LL context-free languages are closed under codes if and only if they are of bounded deciphering delay. These families are also closed under non-codes, if they map every letter into a submonoid generated by a single word. The family of unambiguous context-free languages is closed under all codes and under the same non-codes as the families of deterministic and LL context-free languages.

On Modelling, System Identification and Control of Servo-Systems with a Flexible Load

The present study was done with two different servo-systems. In the first system, a servo-hydraulic system was identified and then controlled by a fuzzy gainscheduling controller. The second servo-system, an electro-magnetic linear motor in suppressing the mechanical vibration and position tracking of a reference model are studied by using a neural network and an adaptive backstepping controller respectively. Followings are some descriptions of research methods. Electro Hydraulic Servo Systems (EHSS) are commonly used in industry. These kinds of systems are nonlinearin nature and their dynamic equations have several unknown parameters.System identification is a prerequisite to analysis of a dynamic system. One of the most promising novel evolutionary algorithms is the Differential Evolution (DE) for solving global optimization problems. In the study, the DE algorithm is proposed for handling nonlinear constraint functionswith boundary limits of variables to find the best parameters of a servo-hydraulic system with flexible load. The DE guarantees fast speed convergence and accurate solutions regardless the initial conditions of parameters. The control of hydraulic servo-systems has been the focus ofintense research over the past decades. These kinds of systems are nonlinear in nature and generally difficult to control. Since changing system parameters using the same gains will cause overshoot or even loss of system stability. The highly non-linear behaviour of these devices makes them ideal subjects for applying different types of sophisticated controllers. The study is concerned with a second order model reference to positioning control of a flexible load servo-hydraulic system using fuzzy gainscheduling. In the present research, to compensate the lack of dampingin a hydraulic system, an acceleration feedback was used. To compare the results, a pcontroller with feed-forward acceleration and different gains in extension and retraction is used. The design procedure for the controller and experimental results are discussed. The results suggest that using the fuzzy gain-scheduling controller decrease the error of position reference tracking. The second part of research was done on a PermanentMagnet Linear Synchronous Motor (PMLSM). In this study, a recurrent neural network compensator for suppressing mechanical vibration in PMLSM with a flexible load is studied. The linear motor is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller, and the vibration of the flexible mechanism is suppressed by using a hybrid recurrent neural network. The differential evolution strategy and Kalman filter method are used to avoid the local minimum problem, and estimate the states of system respectively. The proposed control method is firstly designed by using non-linear simulation model built in Matlab Simulink and then implemented in practical test rig. The proposed method works satisfactorily and suppresses the vibration successfully. In the last part of research, a nonlinear load control method is developed and implemented for a PMLSM with a flexible load. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired position reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillation. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm whose stability is ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. The states of the system needed in the controller are estimated by using the Kalman filter. The proposed controller is implemented and tested in a linear motor test drive and responses are presented.

Real-Time Simulation of Mobile and Industrial Machines Using the Multibody Simulation Approach

This thesis introduces a real-time simulation environment based on the multibody simulation approach. The environment consists of components that are used in conventional product development, including computer aided drawing, visualization, dynamic simulation and finite element software architecture, data transfer and haptics. These components are combined to perform as a coupled system on one platform. The environment is used to simulate mobile and industrial machines at different stages of a product life time. Consequently, the demands of the simulated scenarios vary. In this thesis, a real-time simulation environment based on the multibody approach is used to study a reel mechanism of a paper machine and a gantry crane. These case systems are used to demonstrate the usability of the real-time simulation environment for fault detection purposes and in the context of a training simulator. In order to describe the dynamical performance of a mobile or industrial machine, the nonlinear equations of motion must be defined. In this thesis, the dynamical behaviour of machines is modelled using the multibody simulation approach. A multibody system may consist of rigid and flexible bodies which are joined using kinematic joint constraints while force components are used to describe the actuators. The strength of multibody dynamics relies upon its ability to describe nonlinearities arising from wearing of the components, friction, large rotations or contact forces in a systematic manner. For this reason, the interfaces between subsystems such as mechanics, hydraulics and control systems of the mechatronic machine can be defined and analyzed in a straightforward manner.

Real-time simulation of multibody systems with applications for working mobile vehicles

This dissertation describes an approach for developing a real-time simulation for working mobile vehicles based on multibody modeling. The use of multibody modeling allows comprehensive description of the constrained motion of the mechanical systems involved and permits real-time solving of the equations of motion. By carefully selecting the multibody formulation method to be used, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the multibody model while at the same time solving equations of motion in real-time. In this study, a multibody procedure based on semi-recursive and augmented Lagrangian methods for real-time dynamic simulation application is studied in detail. In the semirecursive approach, a velocity transformation matrix is introduced to describe the dependent coordinates into relative (joint) coordinates, which reduces the size of the generalized coordinates. The augmented Lagrangian method is based on usage of global coordinates and, in that method, constraints are accounted using an iterative process. A multibody system can be modelled as either rigid or flexible bodies. When using flexible bodies, the system can be described using a floating frame of reference formulation. In this method, the deformation mode needed can be obtained from the finite element model. As the finite element model typically involves large number of degrees of freedom, reduced number of deformation modes can be obtained by employing model order reduction method such as Guyan reduction, Craig-Bampton method and Krylov subspace as shown in this study The constrained motion of the working mobile vehicles is actuated by the force from the hydraulic actuator. In this study, the hydraulic system is modeled using lumped fluid theory, in which the hydraulic circuit is divided into volumes. In this approach, the pressure wave propagation in the hoses and pipes is neglected. The contact modeling is divided into two stages: contact detection and contact response. Contact detection determines when and where the contact occurs, and contact response provides the force acting at the collision point. The friction between tire and ground is modelled using the LuGre friction model, which describes the frictional force between two surfaces. Typically, the equations of motion are solved in the full matrices format, where the sparsity of the matrices is not considered. Increasing the number of bodies and constraint equations leads to the system matrices becoming large and sparse in structure. To increase the computational efficiency, a technique for solution of sparse matrices is proposed in this dissertation and its implementation demonstrated. To assess the computing efficiency, augmented Lagrangian and semi-recursive methods are implemented employing a sparse matrix technique. From the numerical example, the results show that the proposed approach is applicable and produced appropriate results within the real-time period.

Upgrading of thethird generation of the Remote Diagnostic Systems for ABB Marine Propulsion Systems

Remote diagnostics has become very popular in marine industry. Diagnostic systems are improved all the time and the newest monitoring systems are constantly taken into operation. Most vessels are, however, rigged up by outmoded facilities, which should be updated. In this work the principles of operating of such a remote diagnostic system as the ABB's third generation remote diagnostic system (RDS) and the newest Propulsion Condition Management System (PCMS) are studied. As a result of the thesis the ways of upgrading the old systems of RDS are presented. Specifically, the work focuses on the establishment of the connection between Advant controller AC-110 from the old system and PCMS server, and in other words how to get Modbus data by OPC server.