Insiders´ views as a predictor of stock performance : can insider trading be used to predict stock performance on the United States stock market?

This thesis studies the possibility of using information on insiders’ transactions to forecast future stock returns after the implementation of Sarbanes Oxley Act in July 2003. Insider transactions between July 2003 and August 2009 are analysed with regression tests to identify the relationships between insiders’ transactions and future stock returns. This analysis is complemented with rudimentary bootstrapping procedures to verify the robustness of the findings. The underlying assumption of the thesis is that insiders constantly receive pieces of information that indicate future performance of the company. They may not be allowed to trade on large and tangible pieces of information but they can trade on accumulation of smaller, intangible pieces of information. Based on the analysis in the thesis insiders’ profits were found not to differ from the returns from broad stock index. However, their individual transactions were found to be linked to future stock returns. The initial model was found to be unstable but some of the predictive power could be sacrificed to achieve greater stability. Even after sacrificing some predictive power the relationship was significant enough to allow external investors to achieve abnormal profits after transaction costs and taxes. The thesis does not go into great detail about timing of transactions. Delay in publishing insiders’ transactions is not taken into account in the calculations and the closed windows are not studied in detail. The potential effects of these phenomena are looked into and they do not cause great changes in the findings. Additionally the remuneration policy of an insider or a company is not taken into account even though it most likely affects the trading patterns of insiders. Even with the limitations the findings offer promising opportunities for investors to improve their investment processes by incorporating additional information from insiders’ transaction into their decisions. The findings also raise questions on how insider trading should be regulated. Insiders achieve greater returns than other investors based on superior information. On the other hand, more efficient information transfer could warrant more lenient regulation. The fact that insiders’ returns are dominated by the large investment stake they maintain all the time in their own companies also speaks for more leniency. As Sarbanes Oxley Act considerably modified the insider trading landscape, this analysis provides information that has not been available before. The thesis also constitutes a thorough analysis of insider trading phenomenon which has previously been somewhat separated into several studies.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Finland and the United States, 1917-1919 : early years of mutual relations

Doctoral dissertation, University of Helsinki

The Middle East in the American quest for world order : ideas of power, economics, and social development in United States foreign policy, 1953-1961

Doctoral dissertation, University of Tampere

Small-scale non-industrial private forest ownership in the United States : rationale and implications for forest management

Abstract

Comovement of stock price risk in strategic alliance — Case: mobile internet

The focus of this study has been comovement of stock price risk level between two companies as they form strategic alliance. Thus the main reason has been to shed more light to possible increased risk level that the stockholder confronts when a company he owns forms a strategic alliance with another company. This study has centralized to interfirm cooperation between mobile and internet companies, which have furthered the development of mobile internet. The study has been divided into theoretical and empirical part. In theoretical part the main concepts riskiness of a stock (volatility), comovement and strategic alliance have been run through. In empirical part seven strategic alliances formed by mobile internet companies have been examined. Based on this, strategic alliance seems to increase comovement of stock price risk in some degree. This comovement seems to be stronger when core businesses or operating environments of cooperating companies differ more from each other.

Hybrid warfare – just a twist of compound warfare? : views on warfare from the United States Armed Forces perspective

The wars the Western armies are involved with today are different from those that were fought in the end of 20th century. To explain this change, the Western military thinkers have come up with various different types of definitions of warfare over the last 30 years, each describing the tendencies involved in the conflicts of the time. The changing nature of conflicts surfaced a new term – hybrid warfare. The term was to describe and explain the multi-modality and complexity of modern day conflict. This thesis seeks the answer for the question: what is the development of thought behind hybrid warfare? In this thesis the Vietnam War (1965-1975) is used as an example of compound warfare focusing on the American involvement in the war. The Second Lebanon War (2006) serves as an example of hybrid warfare. Both case studies include an irregular opposing force, namely National Liberation Front in Vietnam War and Hezbollah in the Second Lebanon War. These two case studies are compared with the term full spectrum operations introduced in the current U.S. Department of Army Field Manual No. 3-0 Operations to see the differences and similarities of each term. The perspective of this thesis is the American point of view. This thesis concludes that hybrid warfare, compound warfare and full spectrum operations are very similar. The first two terms are included in the last one. Although hybrid warfare is not officially defined, it will most likely remain to be used in the discussion in the future, since hybrid wars and hybrid threats are officially accepted terms.

"United States" Royal Cord hinnasto N:o 5

kuv., 12 x 18 cm

"United States" Royal Cord hinnasto N:o 5

kuv., 11 x 14 cm

"United States" Royal Cord hinnasto N:o 7

kuv., 11 x 15 cm