Numerical Simulation of Stochastic Di erential Equations

Stochastic differential equation (SDE) is a differential equation in which some of the terms and its solution are stochastic processes. SDEs play a central role in modeling physical systems like finance, Biology, Engineering, to mention some. In modeling process, the computation of the trajectories (sample paths) of solutions to SDEs is very important. However, the exact solution to a SDE is generally difficult to obtain due to non-differentiability character of realizations of the Brownian motion. There exist approximation methods of solutions of SDE. The solutions will be continuous stochastic processes that represent diffusive dynamics, a common modeling assumption for financial, Biology, physical, environmental systems. This Masters' thesis is an introduction and survey of numerical solution methods for stochastic differential equations. Standard numerical methods, local linearization methods and filtering methods are well described. We compute the root mean square errors for each method from which we propose a better numerical scheme. Stochastic differential equations can be formulated from a given ordinary differential equations. In this thesis, we describe two kind of formulations: parametric and non-parametric techniques. The formulation is based on epidemiological SEIR model. This methods have a tendency of increasing parameters in the constructed SDEs, hence, it requires more data. We compare the two techniques numerically.

Beyond the Cosmological Principle

Simplifying the Einstein field equation by assuming the cosmological principle yields a set of differential equations which governs the dynamics of the universe as described in the cosmological standard model. The cosmological principle assumes the space appears the same everywhere and in every direction and moreover, the principle has earned its position as a fundamental assumption in cosmology by being compatible with the observations of the 20th century. It was not until the current century when observations in cosmological scales showed significant deviation from isotropy and homogeneity implying the violation of the principle. Among these observations are the inconsistency between local and non-local Hubble parameter evaluations, baryon acoustic features of the Lyman-α forest and the anomalies of the cosmic microwave background radiation. As a consequence, cosmological models beyond the cosmological principle have been studied vastly; after all, the principle is a hypothesis and as such should frequently be tested as any other assumption in physics. In this thesis, the effects of inhomogeneity and anisotropy, arising as a consequence of discarding the cosmological principle, is investigated. The geometry and matter content of the universe becomes more cumbersome and the resulting effects on the Einstein field equation is introduced. The cosmological standard model and its issues, both fundamental and observational are presented. Particular interest is given to the local Hubble parameter, supernova explosion, baryon acoustic oscillation, and cosmic microwave background observations and the cosmological constant problems. Explored and proposed resolutions emerging by violating the cosmological principle are reviewed. This thesis is concluded by a summary and outlook of the included research papers.

Stochastic particle models: mean reversion and burgers dynamics. An application to commodity markets

The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic model for commodity markets linked with the Burgers equation from fluid dynamics. We construct a stochastic particles method for commodity markets, in which particles represent market participants. A discontinuity in the model is included through an interacting kernel equal to the Heaviside function and its link with the Burgers equation is given. The Burgers equation and the connection of this model with stochastic differential equations are also studied. Further, based on the law of large numbers, we prove the convergence, for large N, of a system of stochastic differential equations describing the evolution of the prices of N traders to a deterministic partial differential equation of Burgers type. Numerical experiments highlight the success of the new proposal in modeling some commodity markets, and this is confirmed by the ability of the model to reproduce price spikes when their effects occur in a sufficiently long period of time.

The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options

En option är ett finansiellt kontrakt som ger dess innehavare en rättighet (men medför ingen skyldighet) att sälja eller köpa någonting (till exempel en aktie) till eller från säljaren av optionen till ett visst pris vid en bestämd tidpunkt i framtiden. Den som säljer optionen binder sig till att gå med på denna framtida transaktion ifall optionsinnehavaren längre fram bestämmer sig för att inlösa optionen. Säljaren av optionen åtar sig alltså en risk av att den framtida transaktion som optionsinnehavaren kan tvinga honom att göra visar sig vara ofördelaktig för honom. Frågan om hur säljaren kan skydda sig mot denna risk leder till intressanta optimeringsproblem, där målet är att hitta en optimal skyddsstrategi under vissa givna villkor. Sådana optimeringsproblem har studerats mycket inom finansiell matematik. Avhandlingen "The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options" inför en ytterligare synpunkt till denna diskussion: I en relativt enkel (ändlig och komplett) marknadsmodell kan nämligen vissa partiella skyddsproblem beskrivas som så kallade kappsäcksproblem. De sistnämnda är välkända inom en gren av matematik som heter operationsanalys. I avhandlingen visas hur skyddsproblem som tidigare lösts på andra sätt kan alternativt lösas med hjälp av metoder som utvecklats för kappsäcksproblem. Förfarandet tillämpas även på helt nya skyddsproblem i samband med så kallade amerikanska optioner.

Combinatorics on Words. New Aspects on Avoidability, Defect Effect, Equations and Palindromes

In this thesis we examine four well-known and traditional concepts of combinatorics on words. However the contexts in which these topics are treated are not the traditional ones. More precisely, the question of avoidability is asked, for example, in terms of k-abelian squares. Two words are said to be k-abelian equivalent if they have the same number of occurrences of each factor up to length k. Consequently, k-abelian equivalence can be seen as a sharpening of abelian equivalence. This fairly new concept is discussed broader than the other topics of this thesis. The second main subject concerns the defect property. The defect theorem is a well-known result for words. We will analyze the property, for example, among the sets of 2-dimensional words, i.e., polyominoes composed of labelled unit squares. From the defect effect we move to equations. We will use a special way to define a product operation for words and then solve a few basic equations over constructed partial semigroup. We will also consider the satisfiability question and the compactness property with respect to this kind of equations. The final topic of the thesis deals with palindromes. Some finite words, including all binary words, are uniquely determined up to word isomorphism by the position and length of some of its palindromic factors. The famous Thue-Morse word has the property that for each positive integer n, there exists a factor which cannot be generated by fewer than n palindromes. We prove that in general, every non ultimately periodic word contains a factor which cannot be generated by fewer than 3 palindromes, and we obtain a classification of those binary words each of whose factors are generated by at most 3 palindromes. Surprisingly these words are related to another much studied set of words, Sturmian words.

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and Bayesian filtering for state space models

This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

Parameter estimation for Chaotic or Stochastic Dynamics

Since its discovery, chaos has been a very interesting and challenging topic of research. Many great minds spent their entire lives trying to give some rules to it. Nowadays, thanks to the research of last century and the advent of computers, it is possible to predict chaotic phenomena of nature for a certain limited amount of time. The aim of this study is to present a recently discovered method for the parameter estimation of the chaotic dynamical system models via the correlation integral likelihood, and give some hints for a more optimized use of it, together with a possible application to the industry. The main part of our study concerned two chaotic attractors whose general behaviour is diff erent, in order to capture eventual di fferences in the results. In the various simulations that we performed, the initial conditions have been changed in a quite exhaustive way. The results obtained show that, under certain conditions, this method works very well in all the case. In particular, it came out that the most important aspect is to be very careful while creating the training set and the empirical likelihood, since a lack of information in this part of the procedure leads to low quality results.