Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Effect of the Knowledge Representation Form on the Efficiency of Knowledge Sharing

The goal of this thesis is to estimate the effect of the form of knowledge representation on the efficiency of knowledge sharing. The objectives include the design of an experimental framework which would allow to establish this effect, data collection, and statistical analysis of the collected data. The study follows the experimental quantitative design. The experimental questionnaire features three sample forms of knowledge: text, mind maps, concept maps. In the interview, these forms are presented to an interviewee, afterwards the knowledge sharing time and knowledge sharing quality are measured. According to the statistical analysis of 76 interviews, text performs worse in both knowledge sharing time and quality compared to visualized forms of knowledge representation. However, mind maps and concept maps do not differ in knowledge sharing time and quality, since this difference is not statistically significant. Since visualized structured forms of knowledge perform better than unstructured text in knowledge sharing, it is advised for companies to foster the usage of these forms in knowledge sharing processes inside the company. Aside of performance in knowledge sharing, the visualized structured forms are preferable due the possibility of their usage in the system of ontological knowledge management within an enterprise.