Statistical variation of weld profiles and their expected influence on fatigue strength

The general objective of this study was to conduct astatistical analysis on the variation of the weld profiles and their influence on the fatigue strength of the joint. Weld quality with respect to its fatigue strength is of importance which is the main concept behind this thesis. The intention of this study was to establish the influence of weld geometric parameters on the weld quality and fatigue strength. The effect of local geometrical variations of non-load carrying cruciform fillet welded joint under tensile loading wasstudied in this thesis work. Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics was used to calculate fatigue strength of the cruciform fillet welded joints in as-welded condition and under cyclic tensile loading, for a range of weld geometries. With extreme value statistical analysis and LEFM, an attempt was made to relate the variation of the cruciform weld profiles such as weld angle and weld toe radius to respective FAT classes.

Development of data sheets for statistical evaluation of fatigue data

To enable a mathematically and physically sound execution of the fatigue test and a correct interpretation of its results, statistical evaluation methods are used to assist in the analysis of fatigue testing data. The main objective of this work is to develop step-by-stepinstructions for statistical analysis of the laboratory fatigue data. The scopeof this project is to provide practical cases about answering the several questions raised in the treatment of test data with application of the methods and formulae in the document IIW-XIII-2138-06 (Best Practice Guide on the Statistical Analysis of Fatigue Data). Generally, the questions in the data sheets involve some aspects: estimation of necessary sample size, verification of the statistical equivalence of the collated sets of data, and determination of characteristic curves in different cases. The series of comprehensive examples which are given in this thesis serve as a demonstration of the various statistical methods to develop a sound procedure to create reliable calculation rules for the fatigue analysis.

Statistical Analysis of Spectral Images

Tämä diplomityö liittyy Spektrikuvien tutkimiseen tilastollisen kuvamallin näkökulmasta. Diplomityön ensimmäisessä osassa tarkastellaan tilastollisten parametrien jakaumien vaikutusta väreihin ja korostumiin erilaisissa valaistusolosuhteissa. Havaittiin, että tilastollisten parametrien väliset suhteet eivät riipu valaistusolosuhteista, mutta riippuvat kuvan häiriöttömyydestä. Ilmeni myös, että korkea huipukkuus saattaa aiheutua värikylläisyydestä. Lisäksi työssä kehitettiin tilastolliseen spektrimalliin perustuvaa tekstuurinyhdistämisalgoritmia. Sillä saavutettiin hyviä tuloksia, kun tilastollisten parametrien väliset riippuvuussuhteet olivat voimassa. Työn toisessa osassa erilaisia spektrikuvia tutkittiin käyttäen itsenäistä komponenttien analyysia (ICA). Seuraavia itsenäiseen komponenttien analyysiin tarkoitettuja algoritmia tarkasteltiin: JADE, kiinteän pisteen ICA ja momenttikeskeinen ICA. Tutkimuksissa painotettiin erottelun laatua. Paras erottelu saavutettiin JADE- algoritmilla, joskin erot muiden algoritmien välillä eivät olleet merkittäviä. Algoritmi jakoi kuvan kahteen itsenäiseen, joko korostuneeseen ja korostumattomaan tai kromaattiseen ja akromaattiseen, komponenttiin. Lopuksi pohditaan huipukkuuden suhdetta kuvan ominaisuuksiin, kuten korostuneisuuteen ja värikylläisyyteen. Työn viimeisessä osassa ehdotetaan mahdollisia jatkotutkimuskohteita.

Phylogeography and population genetics of north European Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)

Although abundant in the number of individuals, the Atlantic salmon may be considered as a threatened species in many areas of its native distribution range. Human activities such as building of power plant dams, offshore overfishing, pollution, clearing of riverbeds for timber floating and badly designed stocking regimes have diminished the distribution of Atlantic salmon. As a result of this, many of the historical populations both in Europe and northern America have gone extinct or are severely depressed. In fact, only 1% of Atlantic salmon existing today are of natural origin, the rest being farmed salmon. All of this has lead to a vast amount of research and many restoration programmes aiming to bring Atlantic salmon back to rivers from where it has vanished. However, many of the restoration programmes conducted thus far have been unsuccessful due to inadequate scientific research or lack of its implementation, highlighting the fact that more research is needed to fully understand the biology of this complex species. The White and Barents Seas in northwest Russia are among the last regions in Europe where Atlantic salmon populations are still stable, thus forming an important source of biodiversity for the entire European region. Salmon stocks from this area are also of immense economic and social importance for the local people in the form of fishing tourism. The main aim of this thesis was to elucidate the post-glacial history and population genetic structure of north European and particularly northwest Russian Atlantic salmon, both of which are aspects of great importance for the management and conservation of the species. Throughout the whole thesis, these populations were studied by utilizing microsatellites as the main molecular tool. One of the most important discoveries of the thesis was the division of Atlantic salmon from the White and Barents Seas into four separate clusters, which has not been observed in previous studies employing nuclear markers although is supported by mtDNA studies. Populations from the western Barents Sea clustered together with the northeast Atlantic populations into a clearly distinguishable group while populations from the White Sea and eastern Barents Sea were separated into three additional groups. This has important conservation implications as this thesis clearly indicates that conservation of populations from all of the observed clusters is warranted in order to conserve as much of the genetic diversity as possible in this area. The thesis also demonstrates how differences in population life histories within a species, migratory behaviour in this case, and in their phylogeographic origin affect the genetic characteristics of populations, namely diversity and divergence levels. The anadromous populations from the Atlantic Ocean, White Sea and Barents Sea possessed higher levels of genetic diversity than the anadromous populations form the Baltic Sea basin. Among the non-anadromous populations the result was the opposite: the Baltic freshwater populations were more variable. This emphasises the importance of taking the life history of a population into consideration when developing conservation strategies: due to the limited possibilities for new genetic diversity to be generated via gene flow, it is expected that freshwater Atlantic salmon populations would be more vulnerable to extinction following a population crash and thus deserve a high conservation status. In the last chapter of this thesis immune relevant marker loci were developed and screened for signatures of natural selection along with loci linked to genes with other functions or no function at all. Also, a novel landscape genomics method, which combines environmental information with molecular data, was employed to investigate whether immune relevant markers displayed significant correlations to various environmental variables more frequently than other loci. Indications of stronger selection pressure among immune-relevant loci compared to non-immune relevant EST-linked loci was found but further studies are needed to evaluate whether it is a common phenomenon in Atlantic salmon.

Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Statistical Methods for Conservation and Alignment Quality in Proteins

Construction of multiple sequence alignments is a fundamental task in Bioinformatics. Multiple sequence alignments are used as a prerequisite in many Bioinformatics methods, and subsequently the quality of such methods can be critically dependent on the quality of the alignment. However, automatic construction of a multiple sequence alignment for a set of remotely related sequences does not always provide biologically relevant alignments.Therefore, there is a need for an objective approach for evaluating the quality of automatically aligned sequences. The profile hidden Markov model is a powerful approach in comparative genomics. In the profile hidden Markov model, the symbol probabilities are estimated at each conserved alignment position. This can increase the dimension of parameter space and cause an overfitting problem. These two research problems are both related to conservation. We have developed statistical measures for quantifying the conservation of multiple sequence alignments. Two types of methods are considered, those identifying conserved residues in an alignment position, and those calculating positional conservation scores. The positional conservation score was exploited in a statistical prediction model for assessing the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The residue conservation score was used as part of the emission probability estimation method proposed for profile hidden Markov models. The results of the predicted alignment quality score highly correlated with the correct alignment quality scores, indicating that our method is reliable for assessing the quality of any multiple sequence alignment. The comparison of the emission probability estimation method with the maximum likelihood method showed that the number of estimated parameters in the model was dramatically decreased, while the same level of accuracy was maintained. To conclude, we have shown that conservation can be successfully used in the statistical model for alignment quality assessment and in the estimation of emission probabilities in the profile hidden Markov models.

Statistical Inversion Theory in X-ray Tomography

In this thesis the X-ray tomography is discussed from the Bayesian statistical viewpoint. The unknown parameters are assumed random variables and as opposite to traditional methods the solution is obtained as a large sample of the distribution of all possible solutions. As an introduction to tomography an inversion formula for Radon transform is presented on a plane. The vastly used filtered backprojection algorithm is derived. The traditional regularization methods are presented sufficiently to ground the Bayesian approach. The measurements are foton counts at the detector pixels. Thus the assumption of a Poisson distributed measurement error is justified. Often the error is assumed Gaussian, altough the electronic noise caused by the measurement device can change the error structure. The assumption of Gaussian measurement error is discussed. In the thesis the use of different prior distributions in X-ray tomography is discussed. Especially in severely ill-posed problems the use of a suitable prior is the main part of the whole solution process. In the empirical part the presented prior distributions are tested using simulated measurements. The effect of different prior distributions produce are shown in the empirical part of the thesis. The use of prior is shown obligatory in case of severely ill-posed problem.

Molecular genetics of the immotile short tail sperm defect

Hedelmättömyyttä aiheuttavan siittiöiden puolihäntävian molekyyligenetiikka Suomalaisissa Yorkshire karjuissa yleistyi 1990-luvun lopulla autosomaalisesti ja resessiivisesti periytyvä hedelmättömyyttä aiheuttava siittiöiden puolihäntävika (ISTS, immotile short tail sperm). Sairaus aiheuttaa normaalia lyhyemmän ja täysin liikkumattoman siittiön hännän muodostuksen. Muita oireita sairailla karjuilla ei ole havaittu ja emakot ovat oireettomia. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kartoittaa siittiöiden puolihäntävian aiheuttava geenivirhe ja kehittää DNA-testi markkeri- ja geeniavusteiseen valintaan. Koko genomin kartoituksessa vian aiheuttava alue paikannettiin sian kromosomiin 16. Paikannuksen perusteella kahden geenimerkin haplotyyppi kehitettiin käytettäväksi markkeri-avusteisessa valinnassa. Sairauteen kytkeytyneen alueen hienokartoitusta jatkettiin geenitestin kehittämiseksi kantajadiagnostiikkaan. Vertailevalla kartoituksella oireeseen kytkeytynyt alue paikannettiin 2 cM:n alueelle ihmisen kromosomiin viisi (5p13.2). Tällä alueella sijaitsevia geenejä vastaavista sian sekvensseistä löydetyn muuntelun perusteella voitiin tarkentaa sairauteen kytkeytyneitä haplotyyppejä. Haplotyyppien perusteella puolihäntäoireeseen kytkeytynyt alue rajattiin kahdeksan geenin alueelle ihmisen geenikartalla. Alueelle paikannetun kandidaattigeenin (KPL2) sekvensointi paljasti introniin liittyneen liikkuvan DNA-sekvenssin, Line-1 retroposonin. Tämä retroposoni muuttaa geenin silmikointia siten, että sitä edeltävä eksoni jätetään pois tai myös osa introni- ja inserttisekvenssiä liitetään geenin mRNA tuotteeseen. Molemmissa tapauksissa tuloksena on lyhentynyt KPL2 proteiini. Tähän retroposoni-inserttiin perustuva geenitesti on ollut sianjalostajien käytössä vuodesta 2006. KPL2 geenin ilmenemisen tarkastelu sialla ja hiirellä paljasti useita kudosspesifisiä silmikointimuotoja. KPL2 geenin pitkä muoto ilmenee pääasiassa vain kiveksessä, mikä selittää geenivirheen aiheuttamat erityisesti siittiön kehitykseen liittyvät oireet. KPL2 proteiinin ilmeneminen hiiren siittiön hännän kehityksen aikana ja mahdollinen yhteistoiminta IFT20 proteiinin kanssa viittaavat tehtävään proteiinien kuljetuksessa siittiön häntään. Mahdollisen kuljetustehtävän lisäksi KPL2 saattaa toimia myös siittiön hännän rakenneosana, koska se paikannettiin valmiin siittiön hännän keskiosaan. Lisäksi KPL2 proteiini saattaa myös toimia Golgin laitteessa sekä Sertolin solujen ja spermatidien liitoksissa, mutta nämä havainnot kuitenkin vaativat lisätutkimuksia. Tämän tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että KPL2 geeni on tärkeä siittiön hännän kehitykselle ja sen rakennemuutos aiheuttaa siittiöiden puolihäntäoireen suomalaisilla Yorkshire karjuilla. KPL2 proteiinin ilmeneminen ja paikannus siittiön kehityksen aikana antaa viitteitä proteiinin toiminnasta. Koska KPL2 geenisekvenssi on erittäin konservoitunut, nämä tulokset tuovat uutta tietoa kaikkien nisäkkäiden siittiöiden kehitykseen ja urosten hedelmättömyyteen syihin.

Statistical Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model

This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

Statistical Optimum Design of Heat Exchangers

The optimal design of a heat exchanger system is based on given model parameters together with given standard ranges for machine design variables. The goals set for minimizing the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) function which represents the price of the saved energy, for maximizing the momentary heat recovery output with given constraints satisfied and taking into account the uncertainty in the models were successfully done. Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) for the design optimization of a system is presented and implemented inMatlab environment. Markov ChainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods are also used to take into account the uncertainty in themodels. Results show that the price of saved energy can be optimized. A wet heat exchanger is found to be more efficient and beneficial than a dry heat exchanger even though its construction is expensive (160 EUR/m2) compared to the construction of a dry heat exchanger (50 EUR/m2). It has been found that the longer lifetime weights higher CAPEX and lower OPEX and vice versa, and the effect of the uncertainty in the models has been identified in a simplified case of minimizing the area of a dry heat exchanger.

A Diagnostic view of the Genetics of CASADIL

Cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL, OMIM #125310) is an inherited vascular disease. The main symptoms include migraineous headache, recurrent strokes and progressive cognitive impairment. CADASIL is caused by mutations in the NOTCH3 gene which result in degeneration of vascular smooth muscle cells, arteriolar stenosis and impaired cerebral blood flow. The aims of this study were assessment of the genetic background of Finnish and Swedish CADASIL patients, analysis of genetic and environmental factors that may influence the phenotype, and identification of the optimal diagnostic strategy. The majority of Finnish CADASIL patients carry the p.Arg133Cys mutation. Haplotype analysis of 18 families revealed a region of linkage disequilibrium around the NOTCH3 locus, which is evidence for a founder effect and a common ancestral mutation. Despite the same mutational background, the clinical course of CADASIL is highly variable between and even within families. The association of several genetic factors with the phenotypic variation was investigated in 120 CADASIL patients. Apolipoprotein E allele 4 was associated with earlier occurrence of strokes, especially in younger patients. Study of a pair of monozygotic twins with CADASIL revealed environmental factors which may influence the phenotype, i.e. smoking, statin medication and physical activity. Knowledge of these factors is useful, since life-style choices may influence the disease progression. The clinical CADASIL diagnosis can be confirmed by detection of either the NOTCH3 mutation or granular osmiophilic material by electron microscopy in skin biopsy, although the sensitivity estimates have been contradictory. Comparison of these two methods in a group of 131 diagnostic cases from Finland, Sweden and France demonstrated that both methods are highly sensitive and reliable.

Statistical Analysis and Numerics of Heat Exchanger Models

The identifiability of the parameters of a heat exchanger model without phase change was studied in this Master’s thesis using synthetically made data. A fast, two-step Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) was tested with a couple of case studies and a heat exchanger model. The two-step MCMC-method worked well and decreased the computation time compared to the traditional MCMC-method. The effect of measurement accuracy of certain control variables to the identifiability of parameters was also studied. The accuracy used did not seem to have a remarkable effect to the identifiability of parameters. The use of the posterior distribution of parameters in different heat exchanger geometries was studied. It would be computationally most efficient to use the same posterior distribution among different geometries in the optimisation of heat exchanger networks. According to the results, this was possible in the case when the frontal surface areas were the same among different geometries. In the other cases the same posterior distribution can be used for optimisation too, but that will give a wider predictive distribution as a result. For condensing surface heat exchangers the numerical stability of the simulation model was studied. As a result, a stable algorithm was developed.

Conservation Genetics of Exploited Finnish Salmonid Fishes

Genetic diversity is one of the levels of biodiversity that the World Conservation Union (IUCN) has recognized as being important to preserve. This is because genetic diversity is fundamental to the future evolution and to the adaptive flexibility of a species to respond to the inherently dynamic nature of the natural world. Therefore, the key to maintaining biodiversity and healthy ecosystems is to identify, monitor and maintain locally-adapted populations, along with their unique gene pools, upon which future adaptation depends. Thus, conservation genetics deals with the genetic factors that affect extinction risk and the genetic management regimes required to minimize the risk. The conservation of exploited species, such as salmonid fishes, is particularly challenging due to the conflicts between different interest groups. In this thesis, I conduct a series of conservation genetic studies on primarily Finnish populations of two salmonid fish species (European grayling, Thymallus thymallus, and lake-run brown trout, Salmo trutta) which are popular recreational game fishes in Finland. The general aim of these studies was to apply and develop population genetic approaches to assist conservation and sustainable harvest of these populations. The approaches applied included: i) the characterization of population genetic structure at national and local scales; ii) the identification of management units and the prioritization of populations for conservation based on evolutionary forces shaping indigenous gene pools; iii) the detection of population declines and the testing of the assumptions underlying these tests; and iv) the evaluation of the contribution of natural populations to a mixed stock fishery. Based on microsatellite analyses, clear genetic structuring of exploited Finnish grayling and brown trout populations was detected at both national and local scales. Finnish grayling were clustered into three genetically distinct groups, corresponding to northern, Baltic and south-eastern geographic areas of Finland. The genetic differentiation among and within population groups of grayling ranged from moderate to high levels. Such strong genetic structuring combined with low genetic diversity strongly indicates that genetic drift plays a major role in the evolution of grayling populations. Further analyses of European grayling covering the majority of the species’ distribution range indicated a strong global footprint of population decline. Using a coalescent approach the beginning of population reduction was dated back to 1 000-10 000 years ago (ca. 200-2 000 generations). Forward simulations demonstrated that the bottleneck footprints measured using the M ratio can persist within small populations much longer than previously anticipated in the face of low levels of gene flow. In contrast to the M ratio, two alternative methods for genetic bottleneck detection identified recent bottlenecks in six grayling populations that warrant future monitoring. Consistent with the predominant role of random genetic drift, the effective population size (N_e) estimates of all grayling populations were very low with the majority of N_e estimates below 50. Taken together, highly structured local populations, limited gene flow and the small N_e of grayling populations indicates that grayling populations are vulnerable to overexploitation and, hence, monitoring and careful management using the precautionary principles is required not only in Finland but throughout Europe. Population genetic analyses of lake-run brown trout populations in the Inari basin (northernmost Finland) revealed hierarchical population structure where individual populations were clustered into three population groups largely corresponding to different geographic regions of the basin. Similar to my earlier work with European grayling, the genetic differentiation among and within population groups of lake-run brown trout was relatively high. Such strong differentiation indicated that the power to determine the relative contribution of populations in mixed fisheries should be relatively high. Consistent with these expectations, high accuracy and precision in mixed stock analysis (MSA) simulations were observed. Application of MSA to indigenous fish caught in the Inari basin identified altogether twelve populations that contributed significantly to mixed stock fisheries with the Ivalojoki river system being the major contributor (70%) to the total catch. When the contribution of wild trout populations to the fisheries was evaluated regionally, geographically nearby populations were the main contributors to the local catches. MSA also revealed a clear separation between the lower and upper reaches of Ivalojoki river system – in contrast to lower reaches of the Ivalojoki river that contributed considerably to the catch, populations from the upper reaches of the Ivalojoki river system (>140 km from the river mouth) did not contribute significantly to the fishery. This could be related to the available habitat size but also associated with a resident type life history and increased cost of migration. The studies in my thesis highlight the importance of dense sampling and wide population coverage at the scale being studied and also demonstrate the importance of critical evaluation of the underlying assumptions of the population genetic models and methods used. These results have important implications for conservation and sustainable fisheries management of Finnish populations of European grayling and brown trout in the Inari basin.

The genetics of behaviour and other adaptive traits in nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius)

One of the main goals in current evolutionary biology research is to identify genes behind adaptive phenotypic variations. The advances in genomic technologies have made it possible to identify genetic loci behind these variations, also concerning non-model species. This thesis investigates the genetics of the behaviour and other adaptive traits of the nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) through the application of different genetic approaches. Fennoscandian nine-spined stickleback populations express large phenotypical differences especially in behaviour, life –history traits and morphology. However the underlying genetic bases for these phenotypical differences have not been studied in detail. The results of the project will lay the foundation for further genetics studies and provide valuable information for our understanding of the genetics of the adaptive divergence of the nine-spined stickleback. A candidate gene approach was used to develop microsatellite markers situating close to candidate genes for behaviour in the nine-spined stickleback. Altogether 13 markers were developed and these markers were used in the subsequent studies with the anonymous random markers and physiologically important gene markers which are already currently available for nine-spined sticklebacks. It was shown that heterozygosity correlated with behaviour in one of the marine nine-spined stickleback populations but with contrasting effects: correlations with behaviour were negative when using physiological gene markers and positive with random markers. No correlation was found between behavioural markers and behaviour. From the physiological gene markers, a strong correlation was found between osmoregulation-related gene markers and behaviour. These results indicate that both local (physiological) and general (random) effects are important in the shaping of behaviour and that heterozygosity– behaviour correlations are population dependent. In this thesis a second linkage map for nine-spined sticklebacks was constructed. Compared to the earlier nine-spined stickleback linkage map, genomic rearrangements were observed between autosomal (LG7) and sex-determing (LG12) linkage groups. This newly constructed map was used in QTL mapping studies in order to locate genomic regions associated with pelvic structures, behaviour and body size/growth. One major QTL was found for pelvic structures and Pitx1 gene was related to these traits as was predicted from three-spined stickleback studies, but this was in contrast to earlier nine-spined stickleback study. The QTL studies also revealed that behaviour and body size/growth were genetically more complex by having more QTL than pelvic traits. However, in many cases, pelvic structure, body size/growth and behaviour were linked to similar map locations indicating possible pleiotropic effects of genes locating in these QTL regions. Many of the gene related markers resided in the QTL area. In the future, studying these possible candidate genes in depth might reveal the underlying mechanism behind the measured traits.