Uplifted spirits, earthbound machines : studies on artists and the dream of flight, 1900-1935

Doctoral dissertation, Academy of Fine Arts

Luonnonhaltijat ‒ haltijoita luonnonympäristössä? : Nature spirits : continuity and change : Conference of Belief Narrative Network of ISFNR, Zugdidi, Georgia 1.‒4.10.2014

Konferenssiraportti

Animal Spirits in Financial Markets: Agent-Based Model

In this work an agent based model (ABM) was proposed using the main idea from the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model and maximized greediness concept. Using a multi-agents simulator, the power of the ABM was assessed by using the historical prices of silver metal dating from the 01.03.2000 to 01.03.2013. The model results, analysed in two different situations, with and without maximized greediness, have proven that the ABM is capable of explaining the silver price dynamics even in utmost events. The ABM without maximal greediness explained the prices with more irrationalities whereas the ABM with maximal greediness tracked the price movements with more rational decisions. In the comparison test, the model without maximal greediness stood as the best to capture the silver market dynamics. Therefore, the proposed ABM confirms the suggested reasons for financial crises or markets failure. It reveals that an economic or financial collapse may be stimulated by irrational and rational decisions, yet irrationalities may dominate the market.

From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Topochemistry of physical and chemical pretreatments of biomass as investigated by FE-SEM, XPS and ToF-SIMS

Surface chemistry is of great importance in plant biomass engineering and applications. The surface chemical composition of biomass which includes lignin, carbohydrates and extractives influences its interactions with chemical agents, such as pulp processing/papermaking chemicals, or enzymes for different purposes. In this thesis, the changes in the surface chemical composition of lignocellulosic biomass after physical modification for the improvement of resulting paper properties and chemical treatment for the enhancement of enzymatic hydrolysis were investigated. Low consistency (LC) refining was used as physical treatment of bleached softwood and hardwood pulp samples, and the surface chemistry of refined samples was investigated. The refined pulp was analysed as whole pulp while the fines-free fibre samples were characterized separately. The fines produced in LCrefining contributed to an enlarged surface specific area as well as the change of surface coverage by lignin and extractives, as investigated by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The surface coverage by lignin of the whole pulp decreased after refining while the surface coverage by extractives increased both for pine and eucalyptus. In the case of pine, the removal of fines resulted in reduction of the surface coverage by extractives, while the surface coverage by lignin increased on fibre sample (without fines). In the case of eucalyptus, the surface coverage by lignin of fibre samples decreased after the removal of fines. In addition, the surface distribution of carbohydrates, lignin and extractives of pine and eucalyptus samples was determined by Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (ToF-SIMS). LC-refining increased the amounts of pentose, hexose and extractives on the surface of pine samples. ToF-SIMS also gave clear evidence about xylan deposition and reduction of surface lignin distribution on the fibre of eucalyptus. However, the changes in the surface chemical composition during the physical treatment has led to an increase in the adsorption of fluorescent whitening agents (FWAs) on fibres due to a combination of electro-static forces, specific surface area of fibres and hydrophobic interactions. Various physicochemical pretreatments were conducted on wood and non-wood biomass for enhancing enzymatic hydrolysis of polysaccharides, and the surface chemistry of the pretreated and enzymatically hydrolysed samples was investigated by field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), XPS and ToF-SIMS. A hydrotrope was used as a relatively novel pretreatment technology both in the case of wood and non-wood biomass. For comparison, ionic liquid and hydrothermal pretreatments were applied on softwood and hardwood as well. Thus, XPS analysis showed that the surface lignin was more efficiently removed by hydrotropic pretreatment compared to ionic liquid or hydrothermal pretreatments. SEM analysis also found that already at room temperature the ionic liquid pretreatments were more effective in swelling the fibres compared with hydrotropic pretreatment at elevated temperatures. The enzymatic hydrolysis yield of hardwood was enhanced due to the decrease in surface coverage of lignin, which was induced by hydrotropic treatment. However, hydrotropic pretreatment was not appropriate for softwood because of the predominance of guaiacyl lignin structure in this material. In addition, the reduction of surface lignin and xylan during pretreatment and subsequent increase in cellulose hydrolysis by enzyme could be observed from ToF-SIMS results. The characterisation of the non-wood biomass (e.g. sugarcane bagasse and common reed) treated by hydrotropic method, alkaline and alkaline hydrogen peroxide pretreatments were carried out by XPS and ToF-SIMS. According to the results, the action for the removal of the surface lignin of non-wood biomass by hydrotropic pretreatment was more significant compared to alkaline and alkaline hydrogen peroxide pretreatments, although a higher total amount of lignin could be removed by alkaline and alkaline hydrogen peroxide pretreatment. Furthermore, xylan could be remarkably more efficiently removed by hydrotropic method. Therefore, the glucan yield achieved from hydrotropic treated sample was higher than that from samples treated with alkaline or alkaline hydrogen peroxide. Through the use of ToF-SIMS, the distribution and localization of lignin and carbohydrates on the surface of ignocelluloses during pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis could be detected, and xylan degradation during enzymatic hydrolysis could also be assessed. Thus, based on the results from XPS and ToF-SIMS, the mechanism of the hydrotropic pretreatment in improving the accessibility of enzymes to fibre and further ameliorating of the enzymatic saccharification could be better elucidated.

Simulating the dynamics of silver market using computational market dynamics

Traditional econometric approaches in modeling the dynamics of equity and commodity markets, have, made great progress in the past decades. However, they assume rationality among the economic agents and and do not capture the dynamics that produce extreme events (black swans), due to deviation from the rationality assumption. The purpose of this study is to simulate the dynamics of silver markets by using the novel computational market dynamics approach. To this end, the daily data from the period of 1st March 2000 to 1st March 2013 of closing prices of spot silver prices has been simulated with the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale(JCM) model. The Maximum Likelihood approach has been employed to calibrate the acquired data with JCM. Statistical analysis of the simulated series with respect to the actual one has been conducted to evaluate model performance. The model captures the animal spirits dynamics present in the data under evaluation well.

Kalman filter for computational market dynamics

Kalman filter is a recursive mathematical power tool that plays an increasingly vital role in innumerable fields of study. The filter has been put to service in a multitude of studies involving both time series modelling and financial time series modelling. Modelling time series data in Computational Market Dynamics (CMD) can be accomplished using the Jablonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model. Maximum likelihood approach has always been utilised to estimate the parameters of the JCM model. The purpose of this study is to discover if the Kalman filter can be effectively utilized in CMD. Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), with 50 ensemble members, applied to US sugar prices spanning the period of January, 1960 to February, 2012 was employed for this work. The real data and Kalman filter trajectories showed no significant discrepancies, hence indicating satisfactory performance of the technique. Since only US sugar prices were utilized, it would be interesting to discover the nature of results if other data sets are employed.