Stress testing and risk evaluation of new capacity payment algorithm proposed by Market Council

In the Russian Wholesale Market, electricity and capacity are traded separately. Capacity is a special good, the sale of which obliges suppliers to keep their generating equipment ready to produce the quantity of electricity indicated by the System Operator. The purpose of the formation of capacity trading was the maintenance of reliable and uninterrupted delivery of electricity in the wholesale market. The price of capacity reflects constant investments in construction, modernization and maintenance of power plants. So, the capacity sale creates favorable conditions to attract investments in the energy sector because it guarantees the investor that his investments will be returned.

Evaluation of energy efficiency and best available techniques in pumping processes

The potential for enhancing the energy efficiency of industrial pumping processes is estimated to be in some cases up to 50 %. One way to define further this potential is to implement techniques in accordance to definition of best available techniques in pumping applications. These techniques are divided into three main categories: Design, control method & maintenance and distribution system. In the theory part of this thesis first the definition of best available techniques (BAT) and its applicability on pumping processes is issued. Next, the theory around pumping with different pump types is handled, the main stress being in centrifugal pumps. Other components needed in a pumping process are dealt by presenting different control methods, use of an electric motor, variable speed drive and the distribution system. Last part of the theory is about industrial pumping processes from water distribution, sewage water and power plant applications, some of which are used further on in the empirical part as example cases. For the empirical part of this study four case studies on typical pumping processes from older Master’s these were selected. Firstly the original results were analyzed by studying the distribution of energy consumption between different system components and using the definition of BAT in pumping, possible ways to improve energy efficiency were evaluated. The goal in this study was that by the achieved results it would be possible to identify the characteristic energy consumption of these and similar pumping processes. Through this data it would then be easier to focus energy efficiency actions where they might be the most applicable, both technically and economically.

Cyanobacteria from the Baltic Sea and Finnish lakes as an energy source and modulators of bioenergetic pathways

Cyanobacteria are a diverse group of oxygenic photosynthetic bacteria that inhabit in a wide range of environments. They are versatile and multifaceted organisms with great possibilities for different biotechnological applications. For example, cyanobacteria produce molecular hydrogen (H2), which is one of the most important alternatives for clean and sustainable energy. Apart from being beneficial, cyanobacteria also possess harmful characteristics and may become a source of threat to human health and other living organisms, as they are able to form surface blooms that are producing a variety of toxic or bioactive compounds. The University of Helsinki Culture Collection (UHCC) maintains around 1,000 cyanobacterial strains representing a large number of genera and species isolated from the Baltic Sea and Finnish lakes. The culture collection covers different life forms such as unicellular and filamentous, N2-fixing and non-N2-fixing strains, and planktonic and benthic cyanobacteria. In this thesis, the UHCC has been screened to identify potential strains for sustainable biohydrogen production and also for strains that produce compounds modifying the bioenergetic pathways of other cyanobacteria or terrestrial plants. Among the 400 cyanobacterial strains screened so far, ten were identified as high H2-producing strains. The enzyme systems involved in H2 metabolism of cyanobacteria were analyzed using the Southern hybridization approach. This revealed the presence of the enzyme nitrogenase in all strains tested, while none of them are likely to have contained alternative nitrogenases. All the strains tested, except for two Calothrix strains, XSPORK 36C and XSPORK 11A, were suggested to contain both uptake and bidirectional hydrogenases. Moreover, 55 methanol extracts of various cyanobacterial strains were screened to identify potent bioactive compounds affecting the photosynthetic apparatus of the model cyanobacterium, Synechocystis PCC 6803. The extract from Nostoc XPORK 14A was the only one that modified the photosynthetic machinery and dark respiration. The compound responsible for this effect was identified, purified, and named M22. M22 demonstrated a dual-action mechanism: production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) under illumination and an unknown mechanism that also prevailed in the dark. During summer, the Baltic Sea is occupied by toxic blooms of Nodularia spumigena (hereafter referred to as N. spumigena), which produces a hepatotoxin called nodularin. Long-term exposure of the terrestrial plant spinach to nodularin was studied. Such treatment resulted in inhibition of growth and chlorosis of the leaves. Moreover, the activity and amount of mitochondrial electron transfer complexes increased in the leaves exposed to nodularin-containing extract, indicating upregulation of respiratory reactions, whereas no marked changes were detected in the structure or function of the photosynthetic machinery. Nodularin-exposed plants suffered from oxidative stress, evidenced by oxidative modifications of various proteins. Plants initiated strategies to combat the stress by increasing the levels of alpha-tocopherol, mitochondrial alternative oxidase (AOX), and mitochondrial ascorbate peroxidase (mAPX).

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Seasonal variation in migratory body condition, corticosterone secretion, oxidative stress and biotransformation activity in barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.)

I studied the associations between migration-related physiological regulation (corticosterone) and body condition of barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.). An additional purpose was to determine whether oxidative stress and biotransformation activity vary seasonally. Since physiological regulation, biotransformation activity and the stress involved may be important factors for body condition during migration; they may have direct effects on migration success. This in turn may influence other important life history stages, such as breeding and moult. In the thesis I used barn swallow data of the Finnish Ringing Centre (1997–2009), consisting of all juveniles ringed in the nests and recaptured from night roosts later the same autumn. Before the autumn migration in Finland I also captured, ringed and sampled barn swallows from night roosts in 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2011. Samples preceding spring migration in South Africa were collected in 2007. Juvenile barn swallows started to migrate southward in mid-August (first broods). Second broods started their migration at a younger age and almost a month later than first broods (mid-September). Barn swallows increased body mass and accumulated fat for the autumn migration. In the course of the autumn they seemed to be able to prevent the loss of energy already accumulated, since the proportional overnight mass loss, fat loss and faecal production decreased. Surprisingly, corticosterone, the major energy-regulating hormone in birds, seemed not to be involved in the fuelling process. Previous studies with warblers, sparrows and shorebirds had shown that during migration, the baseline levels of corticosterone were elevated in order to facilitate fuelling. It is possible that for Finnish barn swallows the most important fuelling place is in southern Europe, since northern and eastern populations migrate via the Balkan Peninsula. However, the adrenocortical stress response of Finnish barn swallows in good body condition was lower than that of those in poor body condition. Birds clearly suppressed the response, probably to prevent the catabolic effects of excessive corticosterone levels; birds cannot afford to lose muscle mass before migration. South African barn swallows had high levels of baseline corticosterone, but this may have been associated with the high oxidative damage and biotransformation activity of those birds. Barn swallows in spring and summer had low biotransformation activity and intermediate oxidative stress, which was probably related to breeding. Autumn birds had low biotransformation activity and oxidative stress but high redox enzyme activities in some migration-related enzymes.

The Role of Oxidative Stress in Environmental Responses of Fennoscandian Animals

All aerobic organisms have to deal with the toxicity of oxygen. Oxygen enables more efficient energy production compared to anaerobic respiration or fermentation, but at the same time reactive oxygen species (ROS) are being formed. ROS can also be produced by external factors such as UV-radiation and contamination. ROS can cause damage to biomolecules such as DNA, lipids and proteins and organisms try to keep the damage as small as possible by repairing biomolecules and metabolizing ROS. All ROS are not harmful, because they are used as signaling molecules. To cope against ROS organism have an antioxidant (AOX) system which consists both enzymatic and non-enzymatic AOX defense. Some AOX are produced by the organism itself and some are gained via diet. In this thesis I studied environmentally caused changes in the redox regulation of different wild vertebrate animals to gain knowledge on the temporal, spatial and pollution-derived-effects on the AOX systems. As study species I used barn swallow, ringed seal and the Baltic salmon. For the barn swallow the main interest was the seasonal fluctuation in the redox regulation and its connection to migration and breeding. The more contaminated ringed seals of the Baltic Sea were compared to seals from cleaner Svalbard to investigate whether they suffered from contaminant induced oxidative stress. The regional and temporal variation in redox regulation and regional variation in mRNA and protein expressions of Baltic salmon were studied to gain knowledge if the salmon from different areas are equally stressed. As a comparative aspect the redox responses of these different species were investigated to see which parts of the AOX system are substantial in which species. Certain parts of AOX system were connected to breeding and others to migration in barn swallows, there was also differences in biotransformation between birds caught from Africa and Finland. The Baltic ringed seal did not differ much from the seals from Svalbard, despite the difference in contaminant load. A possible explanation to this could be the enhanced AOX mechanisms against dive-associated oxidative stress in diving air-breathing animals, which also helps to cope with ROS derived from other sourses. The Baltic salmon from Gulf of Finland (GoF) showed higher activities in their AOX defense enzymes and more oxidative damage than fish from other areas. Also on mRNA and proteomic level, stress related metabolic changes were most profound in in the fish from GoF. Mainly my findings on species related differences followed the pattern of mammals showing highest activities and least damage and birds showing lower activities and most damage, fish being intermediate. In general, the glutathione recycling-related enzymes and the ratio of oxidized and reduced glutathione seemed to be the most affected parameters in all of the species.

Dynamic ecosystems under anthropogenic stress : how does macrotidal sandy fauna respond to green tides?

Highly dynamic systems, often considered as resilient systems, are characterised by abiotic and biotic processes under continuous and strong changes in space and time. Because of this variability, the detection of overlapping anthropogenic stress is challenging. Coastal areas harbour dynamic ecosystems in the form of open sandy beaches, which cover the vast majority of the world’s ice-free coastline. These ecosystems are currently threatened by increasing human-induced pressure, among which mass-development of opportunistic macroalgae (mainly composed of Chlorophyta, so called green tides), resulting from the eutrophication of coastal waters. The ecological impact of opportunistic macroalgal blooms (green tides, and blooms formed by other opportunistic taxa), has long been evaluated within sheltered and non-tidal ecosystems. Little is known, however, on how more dynamic ecosystems, such as open macrotidal sandy beaches, respond to such stress. This thesis assesses the effects of anthropogenic stress on the structure and the functioning of highly dynamic ecosystems using sandy beaches impacted by green tides as a study case. The thesis is based on four field studies, which analyse natural sandy sediment benthic community dynamics over several temporal (from month to multi-year) and spatial (from local to regional) scales. In this thesis, I report long-lasting responses of sandy beach benthic invertebrate communities to green tides, across thousands of kilometres and over seven years; and highlight more pronounced responses of zoobenthos living in exposed sandy beaches compared to semi-exposed sands. Within exposed sandy sediments, and across a vertical scale (from inshore to nearshore sandy habitats), I also demonstrate that the effects of the presence of algal mats on intertidal benthic invertebrate communities is more pronounced than that on subtidal benthic invertebrate assemblages, but also than on flatfish communities. Focussing on small-scale variations in the most affected faunal group (i.e. benthic invertebrates living at low shore), this thesis reveals a decrease in overall beta-diversity along a eutrophication-gradient manifested in the form of green tides, as well as the increasing importance of biological variables in explaining ecological variability of sandy beach macrobenthic assemblages along the same gradient. To illustrate the processes associated with the structural shifts observed where green tides occurred, I investigated the effects of high biomasses of opportunistic macroalgae (Ulva spp.) on the trophic structure and functioning of sandy beaches. This work reveals a progressive simplification of sandy beach food web structure and a modification of energy pathways over time, through direct and indirect effects of Ulva mats on several trophic levels. Through this thesis I demonstrate that highly dynamic systems respond differently (e.g. shift in δ13C, not in δ15N) and more subtly (e.g. no mass-mortality in benthos was found) to anthropogenic stress compared to what has been previously shown within more sheltered and non-tidal systems. Obtaining these results would not have been possible without the approach used through this work; I thus present a framework coupling field investigations with analytical approaches to describe shifts in highly variable ecosystems under human-induced stress.