Inversion and assimilation methods with applications in geophysical remote sensing

Stratospheric ozone can be measured accurately using a limb scatter remote sensing technique at the UV-visible spectral region of solar light. The advantages of this technique includes a good vertical resolution and a good daytime coverage of the measurements. In addition to ozone, UV-visible limb scatter measurements contain information about NO2, NO3, OClO, BrO and aerosols. There are currently several satellite instruments continuously scanning the atmosphere and measuring the UVvisible region of the spectrum, e.g., the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS) launched on the Odin satellite in February 2001, and the Scanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) launched on Envisat in March 2002. Envisat also carries the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) instrument, which also measures limb-scattered sunlight under bright limb occultation conditions. These conditions occur during daytime occultation measurements. The global coverage of the satellite measurements is far better than any other ozone measurement technique, but still the measurements are sparse in the spatial domain. Measurements are also repeated relatively rarely over a certain area, and the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere changes dynamically. Assimilation methods are therefore needed in order to combine the information of the measurements with the atmospheric model. In recent years, the focus of assimilation algorithm research has turned towards filtering methods. The traditional Extended Kalman filter (EKF) method takes into account not only the uncertainty of the measurements, but also the uncertainty of the evolution model of the system. However, the computational cost of full blown EKF increases rapidly as the number of the model parameters increases. Therefore the EKF method cannot be applied directly to the stratospheric ozone assimilation problem. The work in this thesis is devoted to the development of inversion methods for satellite instruments and the development of assimilation methods used with atmospheric models.

Fluvio-morphological processes of meander bends - Combining conventional field measurements, close-range remote sensing and computational modelling

Meandering rivers have been perceived to evolve rather similarly around the world independently of the location or size of the river. Despite the many consistent processes and characteristics they have also been noted to show complex and unique sets of fluviomorphological processes in which local factors play important role. These complex interactions of flow and morphology affect notably the development of the river. Comprehensive and fundamental field, flume and theoretically based studies of fluviomorphological processes in meandering rivers have been carried out especially during the latter part of the 20th century. However, as these studies have been carried out with traditional field measurements techniques their spatial and temporal resolution is not competitive to the level achievable today. The hypothesis of this study is that, by exploiting e increased spatial and temporal resolution of the data, achieved by combining conventional field measurements with a range of modern technologies, will provide new insights to the spatial patterns of the flow-sediment interaction in meandering streams, which have perceived to show notable variation in space and time. This thesis shows how the modern technologies can be combined to derive very high spatial and temporal resolution data on fluvio-morphological processes over meander bends. The flow structure over the bends is recorded in situ using acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and the spatial and temporal resolution of the flow data is enhanced using 2D and 3D CFD over various meander bends. The CFD are also exploited to simulate sediment transport. Multi-temporal terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), mobile laser scanning (MLS) and echo sounding data are used to measure the flow-based changes and formations over meander bends and to build the computational models. The spatial patterns of erosion and deposition over meander bends are analysed relative to the measured and modelled flow field and sediment transport. The results are compared with the classic theories of the processes in meander bends. Mainly, the results of this study follow well the existing theories and results of previous studies. However, some new insights regarding to the spatial and temporal patterns of the flow-sediment interaction in a natural sand-bed meander bend are provided. The results of this study show the advantages of the rapid and detailed measurements techniques and the achieved spatial and temporal resolution provided by CFD, unachievable with field measurements. The thesis also discusses the limitations which remain in the measurement and modelling methods and in understanding of fluvial geomorphology of meander bends. Further, the hydro- and morphodynamic models’ sensitivity to user-defined parameters is tested, and the modelling results are assessed against detailed field measurement. The study is implemented in the meandering sub-Arctic Pulmanki River in Finland. The river is unregulated and sand-bed and major morphological changes occur annually on the meander point bars, which are inundated only during the snow-melt-induced spring floods. The outcome of this study applies to sandbed meandering rivers in regions where normally one significant flood event occurs annually, such as Arctic areas with snow-melt induced spring floods, and where the point bars of the meander bends are inundated only during the flood events.

Remote sensing for three-dimensional modelling of hydromorphology

Successful management of rivers requires an understanding of the fluvial processes that govern them. This, in turn cannot be achieved without a means of quantifying their geomorphology and hydrology and the spatio-temporal interactions between them, that is, their hydromorphology. For a long time, it has been laborious and time-consuming to measure river topography, especially in the submerged part of the channel. The measurement of the flow field has been challenging as well, and hence, such measurements have long been sparse in natural environments. Technological advancements in the field of remote sensing in the recent years have opened up new possibilities for capturing synoptic information on river environments. This thesis presents new developments in fluvial remote sensing of both topography and water flow. A set of close-range remote sensing methods is employed to eventually construct a high-resolution unified empirical hydromorphological model, that is, river channel and floodplain topography and three-dimensional areal flow field. Empirical as well as hydraulic theory-based optical remote sensing methods are tested and evaluated using normal colour aerial photographs and sonar calibration and reference measurements on a rocky-bed sub-Arctic river. The empirical optical bathymetry model is developed further by the introduction of a deep-water radiance parameter estimation algorithm that extends the field of application of the model to shallow streams. The effect of this parameter on the model is also assessed in a study of a sandy-bed sub-Arctic river using close-range high-resolution aerial photography, presenting one of the first examples of fluvial bathymetry modelling from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Further close-range remote sensing methods are added to complete the topography integrating the river bed with the floodplain to create a seamless high-resolution topography. Boat- cart- and backpack-based mobile laser scanning (MLS) are used to measure the topography of the dry part of the channel at a high resolution and accuracy. Multitemporal MLS is evaluated along with UAV-based photogrammetry against terrestrial laser scanning reference data and merged with UAV-based bathymetry to create a two-year series of seamless digital terrain models. These allow the evaluation of the methodology for conducting high-resolution change analysis of the entire channel. The remote sensing based model of hydromorphology is completed by a new methodology for mapping the flow field in 3D. An acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) is deployed on a remote-controlled boat with a survey-grade global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receiver, allowing the positioning of the areally sampled 3D flow vectors in 3D space as a point cloud and its interpolation into a 3D matrix allows a quantitative volumetric flow analysis. Multitemporal areal 3D flow field data show the evolution of the flow field during a snow-melt flood event. The combination of the underwater and dry topography with the flow field yields a compete model of river hydromorphology at the reach scale.

Monitoring and predicting crop growth and analysing agricultural ecosystems by remote sensing

Selostus: Maatalousekosysteemien analysointi ja sadon ennustaminen kaukokartoituksen avulla

Three mathematical models for bucking-to-order

Abstract

Applying geostatistics for investigations of forest ecosystems using remote sensing imagery

Abstract

Some advances in mathematical models for preference relations

Preference relations, and their modeling, have played a crucial role in both social sciences and applied mathematics. A special category of preference relations is represented by cardinal preference relations, which are nothing other than relations which can also take into account the degree of relation. Preference relations play a pivotal role in most of multi criteria decision making methods and in the operational research. This thesis aims at showing some recent advances in their methodology. Actually, there are a number of open issues in this field and the contributions presented in this thesis can be grouped accordingly. The first issue regards the estimation of a weight vector given a preference relation. A new and efficient algorithm for estimating the priority vector of a reciprocal relation, i.e. a special type of preference relation, is going to be presented. The same section contains the proof that twenty methods already proposed in literature lead to unsatisfactory results as they employ a conflicting constraint in their optimization model. The second area of interest concerns consistency evaluation and it is possibly the kernel of the thesis. This thesis contains the proofs that some indices are equivalent and that therefore, some seemingly different formulae, end up leading to the very same result. Moreover, some numerical simulations are presented. The section ends with some consideration of a new method for fairly evaluating consistency. The third matter regards incomplete relations and how to estimate missing comparisons. This section reports a numerical study of the methods already proposed in literature and analyzes their behavior in different situations. The fourth, and last, topic, proposes a way to deal with group decision making by means of connecting preference relations with social network analysis.

Along-scan radiometric gradient in Landsat images: understanding the relation between floristic and remote sensing information in tropical forests

The along-scan radiometric gradient causes severe interpretation problems in Landsat images of tropical forests. It creates a decreasing trend in pixel values with the column number of the image. In practical applications it has been corrected assuming the trend to be linear within structurally similar forests. This has improved the relation between floristic and remote sensing information, but just in some cases. I use 3 Landsat images and 105 floristic inventories to test the assumption of linearity, and to examine how the gradient and linear corrections affect the relation between floristic and Landsat data. Results suggest the gradient to be linear in infrared bands. Also, the relation between floristic and Landsat data could be conditioned by the distribution of the sampling sites and the direction in which images are mosaicked. Additionally, there seems to be a conjunction between the radiometric gradient and a natural east-west vegetation gradient common in Western Amazonia. This conjunction might have enhanced artificially correlations between field and remotely-sensed information in previous studies. Linear corrections may remove such artificial enhancement, but along with true and relevant spectral information about floristic patterns, because they can´t separate the radiometric gradient from a natural one.

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Automated, adaptive methods for forest inventory

Forest inventories are used to estimate forest characteristics and the condition of forest for many different applications: operational tree logging for forest industry, forest health state estimation, carbon balance estimation, land-cover and land use analysis in order to avoid forest degradation etc. Recent inventory methods are strongly based on remote sensing data combined with field sample measurements, which are used to define estimates covering the whole area of interest. Remote sensing data from satellites, aerial photographs or aerial laser scannings are used, depending on the scale of inventory. To be applicable in operational use, forest inventory methods need to be easily adjusted to local conditions of the study area at hand. All the data handling and parameter tuning should be objective and automated as much as possible. The methods also need to be robust when applied to different forest types. Since there generally are no extensive direct physical models connecting the remote sensing data from different sources to the forest parameters that are estimated, mathematical estimation models are of "black-box" type, connecting the independent auxiliary data to dependent response data with linear or nonlinear arbitrary models. To avoid redundant complexity and over-fitting of the model, which is based on up to hundreds of possibly collinear variables extracted from the auxiliary data, variable selection is needed. To connect the auxiliary data to the inventory parameters that are estimated, field work must be performed. In larger study areas with dense forests, field work is expensive, and should therefore be minimized. To get cost-efficient inventories, field work could partly be replaced with information from formerly measured sites, databases. The work in this thesis is devoted to the development of automated, adaptive computation methods for aerial forest inventory. The mathematical model parameter definition steps are automated, and the cost-efficiency is improved by setting up a procedure that utilizes databases in the estimation of new area characteristics.

Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Linguistic models for decision support

Linguistic modelling is a rather new branch of mathematics that is still undergoing rapid development. It is closely related to fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic, but knowledge and experience from other fields of mathematics, as well as other fields of science including linguistics and behavioral sciences, is also necessary to build appropriate mathematical models. This topic has received considerable attention as it provides tools for mathematical representation of the most common means of human communication - natural language. Adding a natural language level to mathematical models can provide an interface between the mathematical representation of the modelled system and the user of the model - one that is sufficiently easy to use and understand, but yet conveys all the information necessary to avoid misinterpretations. It is, however, not a trivial task and the link between the linguistic and computational level of such models has to be established and maintained properly during the whole modelling process. In this thesis, we focus on the relationship between the linguistic and the mathematical level of decision support models. We discuss several important issues concerning the mathematical representation of meaning of linguistic expressions, their transformation into the language of mathematics and the retranslation of mathematical outputs back into natural language. In the first part of the thesis, our view of the linguistic modelling for decision support is presented and the main guidelines for building linguistic models for real-life decision support that are the basis of our modeling methodology are outlined. From the theoretical point of view, the issues of representation of meaning of linguistic terms, computations with these representations and the retranslation process back into the linguistic level (linguistic approximation) are studied in this part of the thesis. We focus on the reasonability of operations with the meanings of linguistic terms, the correspondence of the linguistic and mathematical level of the models and on proper presentation of appropriate outputs. We also discuss several issues concerning the ethical aspects of decision support - particularly the loss of meaning due to the transformation of mathematical outputs into natural language and the issue or responsibility for the final decisions. In the second part several case studies of real-life problems are presented. These provide background and necessary context and motivation for the mathematical results and models presented in this part. A linguistic decision support model for disaster management is presented here – formulated as a fuzzy linear programming problem and a heuristic solution to it is proposed. Uncertainty of outputs, expert knowledge concerning disaster response practice and the necessity of obtaining outputs that are easy to interpret (and available in very short time) are reflected in the design of the model. Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered in two case studies - first in the context of the evaluation of works of art, where a weak consistency condition is introduced and an adaptation of AHP for large matrices of preference intensities is presented. The second AHP case-study deals with the fuzzified version of AHP and its use for evaluation purposes – particularly the integration of peer-review into the evaluation of R&D outputs is considered. In the context of HR management, we present a fuzzy rule based evaluation model (academic faculty evaluation is considered) constructed to provide outputs that do not require linguistic approximation and are easily transformed into graphical information. This is achieved by designing a specific form of fuzzy inference. Finally the last case study is from the area of humanities - psychological diagnostics is considered and a linguistic fuzzy model for the interpretation of outputs of multidimensional questionnaires is suggested. The issue of the quality of data in mathematical classification models is also studied here. A modification of the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) method is presented to reflect variable quality of data instances in the validation set during classifier performance assessment. Twelve publications on which the author participated are appended as a third part of this thesis. These summarize the mathematical results and provide a closer insight into the issues of the practicalapplications that are considered in the second part of the thesis.