Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Distribution and role of macrophytes in coastal lagoons : implications of critical shifts

Crossroads, crucibles and refuges are three words that may describe natural coastal lagoon environments. The words refer to the complex mix of marine and terrestrial influences, prolonged dilution due to the semi-enclosed nature and the function of a habitat for highly diverse plant and animal communities, some of which are endangered. To attain a realistic picture of the present situation, high vulnerability to anthropogenic impact should be added to the description. As the sea floor in coastal lagoons is usually entirely photic, macrophyte primary production is accentuated compared with open sea environments. There is, however, a lack of proper knowledge on the importance of vegetation for the general functioning of coastal lagoon ecosystems. The aim of this thesis is to assess the role of macrophyte diversity, cover and species identity over temporal and spatial scales for lagoon functions, and to determine which steering factors primarily restrict the qualitative and quantitative composition of vegetation in coastal lagoons. The results are linked to patterns of related trophic levels and the indicative potential of vegetation for assessment of general conditions in coastal lagoons is evaluated. This thesis includes five field studies conducted in flads and glo-flads in the brackish water northern Baltic Sea. Flads and glo-flads are defined as a Baltic variety of coastal lagoons, which due to an inlet threshold and post-glacial landuplift slowly will be isolated from the open sea. This process shrinks inlet size, increases exposure and water retention, and is called habitat isolation. The studied coastal lagoons are situated in the archipelago areas of the eastern coast of Sweden, the Åland Islands and the south-west mainland of Finland, where land-uplift amounts to ca. 5 mm/ per year. Out of 400 evaluated sites, a total of 70 lagoons varying in inlet size, archipelago position and anthropogenic influence to cover for essential environmental variation were chosen for further inventory. Vegetation composition, cover and richness were measured together with several hydrographic and morphometric variables in the lagoons both seasonally and inter-annually to cover for general regional, local and temporal patterns influencing lagoon and vegetation development. On smaller species-level scale, the effects of macrophyte species identity and richness for the fish habitat function were studied by examining the influence of plant interaction on juvenile fish diversity. Thus, the active election of plant monoand polycultures by fish and the diversity of fish in the respective culture were examined and related to plant height and water depth. The lagoons and vegetation composition were found to experience a regime shift initiated by increased habitat isolation along with land-uplift. Vegetation composition altered, richness decreased and cover increased forming a less isolated and more isolated regime, named the vascular plant regime and charophyte regime, respectively according to the dominant vegetation. As total phosphorus in the water, turbidity and the impact of regional influences decreased in parallel, the dominance of charophytes and increasing cover seemed to buffer and stabilize conditions in the charophyte regime and indicated an increased functional role of vegetation for the lagoon ecosystem. The regime pattern was unaffected by geographical differences, while strong anthropogenic impact seemed to distort the pattern due to loss of especially Chara tomentosa L. in the charophyte regime. The regimes were further found unperturbed by short-time temporal fluctuations. In fact the seasonal and inter-annual dynamics reinforced the functional difference between the regimes by the increasing role of vegetation along habitat isolation and the resemblance to lake environments for the charophyte regime. For instance, greater total phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in the water in the beginning of the season in the charophyte regime compared with the vascular plant regime presented a steeper reduction to even lower values than in the vascular plant regime along the season. Despite a regional importance and positive relationship of macrophyte diversity in relation to trophic diversity, species identity was underlined in the results of this thesis, especially with decreasing spatial scale. This result was supported partly by the increased role of charophytes in the functioning of the charophyte regime, but even more explicitly by the species-specific preference of juvenile fish for tall macrophyte monocultures. On a smaller species-level scale, tall plant species in monoculture seemed to be able to increase their length, indicating that negative selection forms preferred habitat structures, which increase fish diversity. This negative relationship between plant and fish diversity suggest a shift in diversity patterns among trohic levels on smaller scale. Thus, as diversity patterns seem complex and diverge among spatial scales, it might be ambiguous to extend the understanding of diversity relationships from one trophic level to the other. All together, the regime shift described here presents similarities to the regime development in marine lagoon environments and shallow lakes subjected to nutrient enrichment. However, due to nutrient buffering by vegetation with increased isolation and water retention as a consequence of the inlet threshold, the development seems opposite to the course along an eutrophication gradient described in marine lagoons lacking an inlet threshold, where the role of vegetation decreases. Thus, the results imply devastating consequences of inlet dredging (decreasing isolation) in terms of vegetation loss and nutrient release, and call for increased conservational supervision. Especially the red listed charophytes would suffer negatively from such interference and the consequences are likely to also deteriorate juvenile fish production. The fact that a new species to Finland, Chara connivens Salzm. Ex. Braun 1835 was discovered during this study further indicates a potential of the lagoons serving as refuges for rare species.

The TTIP, ISDS and the shift towards transparency in investor-state arbitration

The negotiations between the EU and the US over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have generated a lot of discussion about investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS). This discussion provided the inspiration for this thesis, with the TTIP in the background, setting the scene. In this thesis I study the nature of ISDS and the principle of transparency within investor-state arbitration. I aim to determine whether the use of ISDS is restricted to international arbitration and whether ISDS can be considered to constitute a system or regime. Furthermore, I consider whether the introduction of the UNCITRAL Rules on Transparency in Treaty-based Investor-State Arbitration (2014, the UNCITRAL Transparency Rules) changes investor-state arbitration in relation to transparency. To achieve this, I examine ISDS provisions in several different international investment agreements (IIAs) and evaluate the ways in which transparency is incorporated into investment law. Moreover, I compare the provisions on transparency and confidentiality in institutional arbitration rules with the UNCITRAL Transparency Rules. I have formed several conclusions, including that the ISDS provisions may contain methods other than international arbitration and that ISDS does not constitute a system. Furthermore, the UNCITRAL Transparency Rules do change – theoretically, at least – investor-state arbitration to become more transparent. Whether the UNCITRAL Transparency Rules will make investor-state arbitration fully transparent depends on the actions of the contracting state parties when negotiating new IIAs and whether they choose to incorporate the UNCITRAL Transparency Rules in the IIAs already concluded.

Influence of silvicultural regime on wood structure characteristics and mechanical properties of clear wood in Pinus sylvestris

Abstract

Dynamics of Appropriability - Finding a Balance between Efficiency and Strength in the Appropriability Regime

Building and sustaining competitive advantage through the creation of market imperfections is challenging in a constantly changing business environment - particularly since the sources of such advantages are increasingly knowledge-based. Facilitated by improved networks and communication, knowledge spills over to competitors more easily than before,thus creating an appropriability problem: the inability of an innovating firm to utilize its innovations commercially. Consequently, as the importance of intellectual assets increases, their protection also calls for new approaches. Companies have various means of protection at their disposal, and by taking advantage of them they can make intangibles more non-transferable and prevent, or at leastdelay, imitation of their most crucial intellectual assets. However, creating barriers against imitation has another side to it, and the transfer of knowledge in situations requiring knowledge sharing may be unintentionally obstructed. Theaim of this thesis is to increase understanding of how firms can balance knowledge protection and sharing so as to benefit most from their knowledge assets. Thus, knowledge protection is approached through an examination of the appropriability regime of a firm, i.e., the combination of available and effective means ofprotecting innovations, their profitability, and the increased rents due to R&D. A further aim is to provide a broader understanding of the formation and structure of the appropriability regime. The study consists of two parts. The first part introduces the research topic and the overall results of the study, and the second part consists of six complementary research publications covering various appropriability issues. The thesis contributes to the existing literature in several ways. Although there is a wide range of prior research on appropriability issues, a lot of it is restricted either to the study of individual appropriability mechanisms, or to comparing certain features of them. These approaches are combined, and the relevant theoretical concepts are clarified and developed. In addition, the thesis provides empirical evidence of the formation of the appropriability regime, which is consequently presented as an adaptive process. Thus, a framework is provided that better corresponds to the complex reality of the current business environment.

Innovations of ageing and societal transition : Dynamics of change of the socio-technical regime of ageing

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the dynamics of the socio-technical system in the field of ageing. The study stems from the notion that the ageing of the population as a powerful megatrend has wide societal effects, and is not just a matter for the social and health sector. The central topic in the study is change: not only the age structures and structures of society are changing, but also at the same time there is constant development, for instance, in technologies, infrastructures and cultural perceptions. The changing concept of innovation has widened the understanding of innovations related to ageing from medical and assistive technological innovations to service and social innovations, as well as systemic innovations at different levels, which means the intertwined and co-evolutionary change in technologies, structures, services and thinking models. By the same token, the perceptions of older people and old age are becoming more multi-faceted: old age is no longer equated to illnesses and decline, but visions of active ageing and a third age have emerged, which are framed by choices, opportunities, resources and consumption in later life. The research task in this study is to open up the processes and mechanisms of change in the field of ageing, which are studied as a complex, multi-level and interrelated socio-technical system. The question is about co-effective elements consisting of macro-level landscape changes, the existing socio-technical regime (the rule system, practices and structures) and bottom-up niche-innovations. Societal transitions do not account for the things inside the regime alone, or for the long-term changes in the landscape, nor for the radical innovations, but for the interplay between all these levels. The research problem is studied through five research articles, which offer micro-level case studies to macro-level phenomenon. Each of the articles focus on different aspects related to ageing and change, and utilise various datasets. The framework of this study leans on the studies of socio-technical systems and multi-level perspective on transitions mainly developed by Frank Geels. Essential factors in transition from one socio-technological regime to another are the co-evolutionary processes between landscape changes, regime level and experimental niches. Landscape level changes, like the ageing of the population, destabilise the regime in the forms of coming pressures. This destabilization offers windows for opportunity to niche-innovations outside or at fringe of the regime, which, through their breakthrough, accelerate the transition process. However, the change is not easy because of various kinds of lock-ins and inertia, which tend to maintain the stability of the regime. In this dissertation, a constructionist approach of society is applied leaning mainly to the ideas of Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration, with the dual nature of structures. The change is taking place in the interplay between actors and structures: structures shape people’s practices, but at the same time these practices constitute and reproduce social systems. Technology and other material aspects, as part of socio-technical systems, and the use of them, also take part in the structuration process. The findings of the study point out that co-evolutionary and co-effective relationships between economic, cultural, technological and institutional fields, as well as relationships between landscape changes, changes in the local and regime-level practices and rule systems, are a very complex and multi-level dynamic socio-technical phenomenon. At the landscape level of ageing, which creates the pressures and triggers to the regime change, there are three remarkable megatrends: demographic change, changes in the global economy and the development of technologies. These exert pressures to the socio-technical regime, which as a rule system is experiencing changes in the form of new markets and consumer habits, new ways of perceiving ageing, new models of organising the health care and other services and as new ways of considering innovation and innovativeness. There are also inner dynamics in the relationships between these aspects within the regime. These are interrelated and coconstructed: the prevailing perceptions of ageing and innovation, for instance, reflect the ageing policies, innovation policies, societal structures, organising models, technology and scientific discussion, and vice versa. Technology is part of the inner dynamics of the sociotechnological regime. Physical properties of the artefacts set limitations and opportunities with regard to their functions and uses. The use of and discussion about technology, contributes producing and reproducing the perceptions of old age. For societal transition, micro-level changes are also needed, in form of niche-innovations, for instance new services, organisational models or new technologies, Regimes, as stabilitystriven systems, tend to generate incremental innovations, but radically new innovations are generated in experimental niches protected from ‘normal’ market selection. The windows of opportunity for radical novelties may be opened if the circumstances are favourable for instance by tensions in the socio-technical regime affected by landscape level changes. This dissertation indicates that a change is taking place, firstly, in the dynamic interactionbetween levels, as a result of purposive action and governance to some extent. Breaking the inertia and using the window of opportunity for change and innovation offered by dynamics between levels, presupposes the actors’ special capabilities and actions such as dynamic capabilities and distance management. Secondly, the change is taking place the socio-technological negotiations inside the regime: interaction between technological and social, which is embodied in the use of technology. The use of technology includes small-level contextual scripts that also participate in forming broader societal scripts (for instance defining old age at the society level), which in their turn affect the formation of policies for innovation and ageing. Thirdly, the change is taking place by the means of active formation of the multi-actor innovation networks, where the role of distance management is crucial to facilitate the communication between actors coming from different backgrounds as well as to help the niches born outside the regime to utilise the window of opportunity offered by regime destabilisation. This dissertation has both theoretical and practical contributions. This study participates in the discussion of action-oriented view on transition by opening up of the socio-technological, coevolutionary processes of the multi-faceted phenomenon of ageing, which has lacked systematic analyses. The focus of this study, however, is not on the large-scale coordination and governance, but rather on opening up the incremental elements and structuration processes, which contribute to the transition little by little, and which can be affected to. This increases the practical importance of this dissertation, by highlighting the importance of very tiny, everyday elements in the change processes in the long run.

Adult education policy in the European Union during the Lisbon decade : the shift to vocational adult learning and work skills matching

This doctoral dissertation investigates the adult education policy of the European Union (EU) in the framework of the Lisbon agenda 2000–2010, with a particular focus on the changes of policy orientation that occurred during this reference decade. The year 2006 can be considered, in fact, a turning point for the EU policy-making in the adult learning sector: a radical shift from a wide--ranging and comprehensive conception of educating adults towards a vocationally oriented understanding of this field and policy area has been observed, in particular in the second half of the so--called ‘Lisbon decade’. In this light, one of the principal objectives of the mainstream policy set by the Lisbon Strategy, that of fostering all forms of participation of adults in lifelong learning paths, appears to have muted its political background and vision in a very short period of time, reflecting an underlying polarisation and progressive transformation of European policy orientations. Hence, by means of content analysis and process tracing, it is shown that the new target of the EU adult education policy, in this framework, has shifted from citizens to workers, and the competence development model, borrowed from the corporate sector, has been established as the reference for the new policy road maps. This study draws on the theory of governance architectures and applies a post-ontological perspective to discuss whether the above trends are intrinsically due to the nature of the Lisbon Strategy, which encompasses education policies, and to what extent supranational actors and phenomena such as globalisation influence the European governance and decision--making. Moreover, it is shown that the way in which the EU is shaping the upgrading of skills and competences of adult learners is modeled around the needs of the ‘knowledge economy’, thus according a great deal of importance to the ‘new skills for new jobs’ and perhaps not enough to life skills in its broader sense which include, for example, social and civic competences: these are actually often promoted but rarely implemented in depth in the EU policy documents. In this framework, it is conveyed how different EU policy areas are intertwined and interrelated with global phenomena, and it is emphasised how far the building of the EU education systems should play a crucial role in the formation of critical thinking, civic competences and skills for a sustainable democratic citizenship, from which a truly cohesive and inclusive society fundamentally depend, and a model of environmental and cosmopolitan adult education is proposed in order to address the challenges of the new millennium. In conclusion, an appraisal of the EU’s public policy, along with some personal thoughts on how progress might be pursued and actualised, is outlined.

Regime-Switching in the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries

Research has highlighted the adequacy of Markov regime-switching model to address dynamic behavior in long term stock market movements. Employing a purposed Extended regime-switching GARCH(1,1) model, this thesis further investigates the regime dependent nonlinear relationship between changes in oil price and stock market volatility in Saudi Arabia, Norway and Singapore for the period of 2001-2014. Market selection is prioritized to national dependency on oil export or import, which also rationalizes the fitness of implied bivariate volatility model. Among two regimes identified by the mean model, high stock market return-low volatility regime reflects the stable economic growth periods. The other regime characterized by low stock market return-high volatility coincides with episodes of recession and downturn. Moreover, results of volatility model provide the evidence that shocks in stock markets are less persistent during the high volatility regime. While accelerated oil price rises the stock market volatility during recessions, it reduces the stock market risk during normal growth periods in Singapore. In contrast, oil price showed no significant notable impact on stock market volatility of target oil-exporting countries in either of the volatility regime. In light to these results, international investors and policy makers could benefit the risk management in relation to oil price fluctuation.