Modelling non-industrial private forest landowners' strategic decision making by using logistic regression and neural networks: case of predicting the choice of forest taxation basis

Summary

Application of Neural Network Methods in the Prediction of Stock Markets

The purpose of the research is to define practical profit which can be achieved using neural network methods as a prediction instrument. The thesis investigates the ability of neural networks to forecast future events. This capability is checked on the example of price prediction during intraday trading on stock market. The executed experiments show predictions of average 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes’ prices based on data of one day and made by two different types of forecasting systems. These systems are based on the recurrent neural networks and back propagation neural nets. The precision of the predictions is controlled by the absolute error and the error of market direction. The economical effectiveness is estimated by a special trading system. In conclusion, the best structures of neural nets are tested with data of 31 days’ interval. The best results of the average percent of profit from one transaction (buying + selling) are 0.06668654, 0.188299453, 0.349854787 and 0.453178626, they were achieved for prediction periods 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes. The investigation can be interesting for the investors who have access to a fast information channel with a possibility of every-minute data refreshment.

Use of neural networks in robot positioning of large flexible redundant manipulators

Deflection compensation of flexible boom structures in robot positioning is usually done using tables containing the magnitude of the deflection with inverse kinematics solutions of a rigid structure. The number of table values increases greatly if the working area of the boom is large and the required positioning accuracy is high. The inverse kinematics problems are very nonlinear, and if the structure is redundant, in some cases it cannot be solved in a closed form. If the structural flexibility of the manipulator arms is taken into account, the problem is almost impossible to solve using analytical methods. Neural networks offer a possibility to approximate any linear or nonlinear function. This study presents four different methods of using neural networks in the static deflection compensation and inverse kinematics solution of a flexible hydraulically driven manipulator. The training information required for training neural networks is obtained by employing a simulation model that includes elasticity characteristics. The functionality of the presented methods is tested based on the simulated and measured results of positioning accuracy. The simulated positioning accuracy is tested in 25 separate coordinate points. For each point, the positioning is tested with five different mass loads. The mean positioning error of a manipulator decreased from 31.9 mm to 4.1 mm in the test points. This accuracy enables the use of flexible manipulators in the positioning of larger objects. The measured positioning accuracy is tested in 9 separate points using three different mass loads. The mean positioning error decreased from 10.6 mm to 4.7 mm and the maximum error from 27.5 mm to 11.0 mm.

Forecasting of wind speeds and directions with artificial neural networks

In this master’s thesis, wind speeds and directions were modeled with the aim of developing suitable models for hourly, daily, weekly and monthly forecasting. Artificial Neural Networks implemented in MATLAB software were used to perform the forecasts. Three main types of artificial neural network were built, namely: Feed forward neural networks, Jordan Elman neural networks and Cascade forward neural networks. Four sub models of each of these neural networks were also built, corresponding to the four forecast horizons, for both wind speeds and directions. A single neural network topology was used for each of the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of wind speeds and directions collected over a period of two years in the municipal region of Puumala in Finland. Only 70% of the data was used for training, validation and testing of the models, while the second last 15% of the data was presented to the trained models for verification. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the mean square errors and sum square errors between them. Based on the results, the feed forward networks returned the lowest generalization errors for hourly, weekly and monthly forecasts of wind speeds; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for forecasting of daily wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors when used for forecasting daily, weekly and monthly wind directions; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for hourly forecasting. The errors were relatively low during training of the models, but shot up upon simulation with new inputs. In addition, a combination of hyperbolic tangent transfer functions for both hidden and output layers returned better results compared to other combinations of transfer functions. In general, wind speeds were more predictable as compared to wind directions, opening up opportunities for further research into building better models for wind direction forecasting.

Pretraining Convolutional Neural Networks for Visual Recognition

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have become the state-of-the-art methods on many large scale visual recognition tasks. For a lot of practical applications, CNN architectures have a restrictive requirement: A huge amount of labeled data are needed for training. The idea of generative pretraining is to obtain initial weights of the network by training the network in a completely unsupervised way and then fine-tune the weights for the task at hand using supervised learning. In this thesis, a general introduction to Deep Neural Networks and algorithms are given and these methods are applied to classification tasks of handwritten digits and natural images for developing unsupervised feature learning. The goal of this thesis is to find out if the effect of pretraining is damped by recent practical advances in optimization and regularization of CNN. The experimental results show that pretraining is still a substantial regularizer, however, not a necessary step in training Convolutional Neural Networks with rectified activations. On handwritten digits, the proposed pretraining model achieved a classification accuracy comparable to the state-of-the-art methods.

Deep convolutional neural networks for semantic video object segmentation

In this thesis, we propose to infer pixel-level labelling in video by utilising only object category information, exploiting the intrinsic structure of video data. Our motivation is the observation that image-level labels are much more easily to be acquired than pixel-level labels, and it is natural to find a link between the image level recognition and pixel level classification in video data, which would transfer learned recognition models from one domain to the other one. To this end, this thesis proposes two domain adaptation approaches to adapt the deep convolutional neural network (CNN) image recognition model trained from labelled image data to the target domain exploiting both semantic evidence learned from CNN, and the intrinsic structures of unlabelled video data. Our proposed approaches explicitly model and compensate for the domain adaptation from the source domain to the target domain which in turn underpins a robust semantic object segmentation method for natural videos. We demonstrate the superior performance of our methods by presenting extensive evaluations on challenging datasets comparing with the state-of-the-art methods.

Neural mechanisms underlying conscious and unconscious vision. Evidence from event-related potentials and transcranial magnetic stimulation

Vision affords us with the ability to consciously see, and use this information in our behavior. While research has produced a detailed account of the function of the visual system, the neural processes that underlie conscious vision are still debated. One of the aims of the present thesis was to examine the time-course of the neuroelectrical processes that correlate with conscious vision. The second aim was to study the neural basis of unconscious vision, that is, situations where a stimulus that is not consciously perceived nevertheless influences behavior. According to current prevalent models of conscious vision, the activation of visual cortical areas is not, as such, sufficient for consciousness to emerge, although it might be sufficient for unconscious vision. Conscious vision is assumed to require reciprocal communication between cortical areas, but views differ substantially on the extent of this recurrent communication. Visual consciousness has been proposed to emerge from recurrent neural interactions within the visual system, while other models claim that more widespread cortical activation is needed for consciousness. Studies I-III compared models of conscious vision by studying event-related potentials (ERP). ERPs represent the brain’s average electrical response to stimulation. The results support the model that associates conscious vision with activity localized in the ventral visual cortex. The timing of this activity corresponds to an intermediate stage in visual processing. Earlier stages of visual processing may influence what becomes conscious, although these processes do not directly enable visual consciousness. Late processing stages, when more widespread cortical areas are activated, reflect the access to and manipulation of contents of consciousness. Studies IV and V concentrated on unconscious vision. By using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) we show that when early visual cortical processing is disturbed so that subjects fail to consciously perceive visual stimuli, they may nevertheless guess (above chance-level) the location where the visual stimuli were presented. However, the results also suggest that in a similar situation, early visual cortex is necessary for both conscious and unconscious perception of chromatic information (i.e. color). Chromatic information that remains unconscious may influence behavioral responses when activity in visual cortex is not disturbed by TMS. Our results support the view that early stimulus-driven (feedforward) activation may be sufficient for unconscious processing. In conclusion, the results of this thesis support the view that conscious vision is enabled by a series of processing stages. The processes that most closely correlate with conscious vision take place in the ventral visual cortex ~200 ms after stimulus presentation, although preceding time-periods and contributions from other cortical areas such as the parietal cortex are also indispensable. Unconscious vision relies on intact early visual activation, although the location of visual stimulus may be unconsciously resolved even when activity in the early visual cortex is interfered with.

Fuzzy Principal Components Analysis

Due to the large number of characteristics, there is a need to extract the most relevant characteristicsfrom the input data, so that the amount of information lost in this way is minimal, and the classification realized with the projected data set is relevant with respect to the original data. In order to achieve this feature extraction, different statistical techniques, as well as the principal components analysis (PCA) may be used. This thesis describes an extension of principal components analysis (PCA) allowing the extraction ofa finite number of relevant features from high-dimensional fuzzy data and noisy data. PCA finds linear combinations of the original measurement variables that describe the significant variation in the data. The comparisonof the two proposed methods was produced by using postoperative patient data. Experiment results demonstrate the ability of using the proposed two methods in complex data. Fuzzy PCA was used in the classificationproblem. The classification was applied by using the similarity classifier algorithm where total similarity measures weights are optimized with differential evolution algorithm. This thesis presents the comparison of the classification results based on the obtained data from the fuzzy PCA.

On Modelling, System Identification and Control of Servo-Systems with a Flexible Load

The present study was done with two different servo-systems. In the first system, a servo-hydraulic system was identified and then controlled by a fuzzy gainscheduling controller. The second servo-system, an electro-magnetic linear motor in suppressing the mechanical vibration and position tracking of a reference model are studied by using a neural network and an adaptive backstepping controller respectively. Followings are some descriptions of research methods. Electro Hydraulic Servo Systems (EHSS) are commonly used in industry. These kinds of systems are nonlinearin nature and their dynamic equations have several unknown parameters.System identification is a prerequisite to analysis of a dynamic system. One of the most promising novel evolutionary algorithms is the Differential Evolution (DE) for solving global optimization problems. In the study, the DE algorithm is proposed for handling nonlinear constraint functionswith boundary limits of variables to find the best parameters of a servo-hydraulic system with flexible load. The DE guarantees fast speed convergence and accurate solutions regardless the initial conditions of parameters. The control of hydraulic servo-systems has been the focus ofintense research over the past decades. These kinds of systems are nonlinear in nature and generally difficult to control. Since changing system parameters using the same gains will cause overshoot or even loss of system stability. The highly non-linear behaviour of these devices makes them ideal subjects for applying different types of sophisticated controllers. The study is concerned with a second order model reference to positioning control of a flexible load servo-hydraulic system using fuzzy gainscheduling. In the present research, to compensate the lack of dampingin a hydraulic system, an acceleration feedback was used. To compare the results, a pcontroller with feed-forward acceleration and different gains in extension and retraction is used. The design procedure for the controller and experimental results are discussed. The results suggest that using the fuzzy gain-scheduling controller decrease the error of position reference tracking. The second part of research was done on a PermanentMagnet Linear Synchronous Motor (PMLSM). In this study, a recurrent neural network compensator for suppressing mechanical vibration in PMLSM with a flexible load is studied. The linear motor is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller, and the vibration of the flexible mechanism is suppressed by using a hybrid recurrent neural network. The differential evolution strategy and Kalman filter method are used to avoid the local minimum problem, and estimate the states of system respectively. The proposed control method is firstly designed by using non-linear simulation model built in Matlab Simulink and then implemented in practical test rig. The proposed method works satisfactorily and suppresses the vibration successfully. In the last part of research, a nonlinear load control method is developed and implemented for a PMLSM with a flexible load. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired position reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillation. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm whose stability is ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. The states of the system needed in the controller are estimated by using the Kalman filter. The proposed controller is implemented and tested in a linear motor test drive and responses are presented.

Älykäs sisältötuote monimediaympäristössä, case: AVO

Diplomityön teoriaosassa tutkittiin monimedian jakelukanavia ja niiden ominaisuuksia sisältöpalveluissa. Työssä esiteltiin keinoja älykkyyden lisäämiseksi monnimediasisältötuotannossa sekä tarkasteltiin sisältöpalvelujen käytettävyyttä. Työssä keskityttiin neuroverkkoteknologiaan, sen toteuttamiseen sekä ohjelmisto-agentteihin. Empiirisessä osassa tutustuttiin työministeriön AVO-ammatinvalintaohjelman toimintaan. Työssä määriteltiin Excel-taulukkoon 280 ammatin ominaisuudet, jotka pohjautuivat AVO:n 122 kysymykseen. Työministeriöstä on saatu 5115 henkilön vastaukset AVO-ammatinvalintaohjelman kysymyksiin. Tätä vastausaineistoa ja tutkimuksessa laadittua ammattitaulukkoa käytettiin neuroverkon opettamiseen. Lopuksi analysoitiin SOM-karttoja. Analyysin tarkoituksena oli tutkia laaditun ammattitaulukon oikeellisuutta ja eri ammattien sijoittumista SOM-kartalle. Tutkimus osoitti, että neuroverkkoteknologia soveltuisi uuden urasuunnittelupalvelun ydinteknologiaksi.

Päätöspuun käyttö tutkamaalien initialisoinnissa

Suomen ilmatilaa valvotaan reaaliaikaisesti, pääasiassa ilmavalvontatutkilla. Ilmatilassa on lentokoneiden lisäksi paljon muitakin kohteita, jotka tutka havaitsee. Tutka lähettää nämä tiedot edelleen ilmavalvontajärjestelmään. Ilmavalvontajärjestelmä käsittelee tiedot, sekä lähettää ne edelleen esitysjärjestelmään. Esitysjärjestelmässä tiedot esitetään synteettisinä merkkeinä, seurantoina joista käytetään nimitystä träkki. Näiden tietojen puitteissa sekä oman ammattitaitonsa perusteella ihmiset tekevät päätöksiä. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on tutkia tutkan havaintoja träkkien initialisointipisteessä siten, että voitaisiin määritellä tyypillinen rakenne sille mikä on oikea ja mikä väärä tai huono träkki. Tämän lisäksi tulisi ennustaa, mitkä Irakeista eivät aiheudu ilma- aluksista. Saadut tulokset voivat helpottaa työtä havaintojen tulkinnassa - jokainen lintuparvi ei ole ehdokas seurannaksi. Havaintojen luokittelu voidaan tehdä joko neurolaskennalla tai päätöspuulla. Neurolaskenta tehdään neuroverkoilla, jotka koostuvat neuroneista. Päätöspuu- luokittelijat ovat oppivia tietorakenteita kuten neuroverkotkin. Yleisin päätöpuu on binääripuu. Tämän työn tavoitteena on opettaa päätöspuuluokittelija havaintojen avulla siten, että se pystyy luokittelemaan väärät havainnot oikeista. Neurolaskennan mahdollisuuksia tässä työssä ei käsitellä kuin teoreettisesti. Työn tuloksena voi todeta, että päätöspuuluokittelijat ovat erittäin kykeneviä erottamaan oikeat havainnot vääristä. Vaikka tulokset olivat rohkaiseva, lisää tutkimusta tarvitaan määrittelemään luotettavammin tekijät, jotka parhaiten suorittavat luokittelun.

Älykkäiden ohjausjärjestelmien käyttö puutavarakuormaimen väsymiskestoiän parantamisessa

Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia älykkäiden ohjausjärjestelmien käyttöä mekatronisen koneen väsymiskeston parantamisessa. Älykkäiden järjestelmien osalta työssä keskityttiin lähinnä neuroverkkojen ja sumean logiikan mahdollisuuksien tutkimiseen. Tämän lisäksi työssä kehitettiin väsymiskestoikää lisäävä älykkäisiin järjestelmiin perustuva ohjausalgoritmi. Ohjausalgoritmi liitettiin osaksi puutavarakuormaimen ohjausta. Ohjaimen kehittely suoritettiin aluksi simulointimallien avulla. Laajemmat ohjaimen testaukset suoritettiin laboratoriossa fyysisen prototyypin avulla. Tuloksena puutavarakuormaimen puomin väsymiskestoikäennuste saatiin moninkertaistettua. Väsymiskestoiän parantumisen lisäksi ohjainalgoritmi myös vaimentaa kuormaimen värähtelyä.

Mittaustieto ilmiöstä Internetiin

Työn tavoitteena oli kehittää laajentumiskykyinen ja tarkka hajautettu mittajärjestelmä venymille ja vastaaville ilmiöille, joka silti kestäisi ankaria olosuhteita. Mittajärjestelmän tehtävä oli esittää keräämänsä tieto Internetissä. Työssä esitellään kehityksen avainkohdat. Työssä on käsitelty koko mittausjärjestelmän suunnitteluun vaikuttavien tekijöitten kaari. Esimerkki-ilmiönä käsitellään venymä. Esittelen sen fysikaalisen luonteen ja tavat joilla venymän rajat vaikuttavat mittausketjun vaatimuksiin. Samoin on esimerkein käsitelty itse anturointitapa ja sen häiriötyypit. Työ luo yhtenäisen matemaattisen katsauksen häiriöihin ja niiden hallitsemiseen ilmiöstä digitointivaiheeseen asti. Eri osa-alueiden häiriötekijät ilmaistaan valitun toisiinsa nivoutuvan terminologian kautta. Työ käsittelee tiedon digitoimisen ja verkottamisen problematiikkaa. Työssä verrataan tarjolla olleita vaihtoehtoja ja dokumentoidaan lopullisessa järjestelmässä käytetyt ratkaisut ja niiden valitsemisen syyt.