Metabolic syndrome – early cardio-metabolic, vascular and hepatic changes

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a combination of several cardio-metabolic risk factors including obesity, hyperglycemia, hypertension and dyslipidemia. MetS has been associated with increased levels of apolipoprotein B (apoB) and low-density lipoprotein oxidation (OxLDL) and with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Aims: To establish the relation of apoB and OxLDL with the MetS development and to determine the status of MetS as a risk factor for adverse liver changes and for subclinical atherosclerosis. Subjects and Methods: The present thesis is part of the two large scale population-based, prospective, observational studies. Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study was launched in 1980 including 3,596 subjects aged 3-18 years. Thereafter follow-up studies have been conducted regularly. In the latest follow-ups that were performed in 2001 (N=2,283) and 2007 (N=2,204), non-invasive ultrasound studies were introduced to the study protocol to measure subclinical atherosclerosis i.e. carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), carotid artery distensibility (Cdist) and brachial flow-mediated dilatation (FMD). Alanine-aminotransferase (ALT) and gammaglutamyltransferase (GGT) were measured in 2007 to assess liver function. The Bogalusa Heart Study is a long-term epidemiologic study of cardiovascular risk factors launched in 1972 in a biracial community of Bogalusa, Louisiana, USA. Total of 374 youths (aged 9-18 years at baseline in 1984-88) who underwent non-invasive ultrasound studies of the carotid artery as adults, were included in the analyses of the present thesis. Results: The odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for MetS incidence during a 6-year follow-up by quartiles of apoB were 2.0(1.0-3.8) for the second quartile, 3.1(1.7-5.7) for the third quartile and 4.2(2.3-7.6) for the fourth quartile. OxLDL was not independently associated with incident MetS. Youth (aged 9-18 years) with MetS or with high body mass index were at 2-3 times the risk of having MetS, high IMT, and type 2 diabetes 24-years later as adults. IMT increased 79±7μm (mean±SEM) in subjects with MetS and 42±2μm in subjects without the MetS (P<0.0001) during 6- years. Subjects who lost the MetS diagnosis during 6-year follow-up had reduced IMT progression compared to persistent MetS group (0.036±0.005vs.0.079±0.010 mm, P=0.001) and reduced Cdist change compared to incident MetS group (-0.12±0.05vs.-0.38±0.10 %/mmHg, P=0.03) over 6-year follow-up. MetS predicted elevated ALT (β±SEM=0.380±0.052, P<0.0001 in men and 0.160±0.052, P=0.002 in women) and GGT (β±SEM=0.240±0.058, P<0.0001 in men and 0.262±0.053, P<0.0001 in women) levels after 6-years. Conclusions: These findings suggest that apoB may give additional information on early metabolic disturbances predisposing MetS. MetS may be used to identify individuals at increased risk of developing atherosclerosis and non-alcoholic liver disease. However, recovery from the MetS may have positive effects on liver and vascular properties.

The estimation of tuberculosis transmission parameters using ABC and MCMC methods

The aim of this work is to apply approximate Bayesian computation in combination with Marcov chain Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the parameters of tuberculosis transmission. The methods are applied to San Francisco data and the results are compared with the outcomes of previous works. Moreover, a methodological idea with the aim to reduce computational time is also described. Despite the fact that this approach is proved to work in an appropriate way, further analysis is needed to understand and test its behaviour in different cases. Some related suggestions to its further enhancement are described in the corresponding chapter.