Generalizing sample tree information with semiparametric and parametric models

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Calculation and comparison of different permanent sample plot types

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A method for using random parameters in analyzing permanent sample plots

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Cost-plus-loss analyses of forest inventory strategies based on kNN-assigned reference sample plot data

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Variation in forest fire ignition probability in Finland

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Natural development of stand structure in peatland Scots pine following drainage : results based on long-term monitoring of permanent sample plots

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Equilibrium curves and growth models to deal with forests in transition to uneven-aged structure : application in two sample stands

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The Effects of Multifactorial Fall Prevention on the Psychological Risk Factors of Falling

Psychological factors, such as depression or depressive symptoms and fear of falling are linked to falls among the aged. According to previous studies, they may increase the risk of falls and injurious falls. In addition, depression or a high amount of depressive symptoms and fear of falling may hinder participation in preventive activities. Despite the severe consequences of both conditions and their high prevalence among the aged, they have rarely been studied in the context of fall prevention. The study aimed to assess the effects of multifactorial fall prevention on the psychological risk factors of falling (depressive symptoms and fear of falling) among the community-dwelling aged at increased risk of falling. In addition, it aimed to determine factors predicting high adherence to preventive activities. Volunteers aged 65 or over, who had fallen during the year previous to randomisation were recruited. Participants (n=591) were randomised into an intervention or a control group. The intervention group received a multifactorial fall prevention programme including geriatric assessment, individual guidance on fall and fracture prevention, group- and home-based physical exercise, psychosocial group activities, lectures and home hazards assessment. The control group had a one-time counselling on fall and fracture prevention. The data on psychological risk factors of falling were collected by self-rated questionnaires. Multifactorial fall prevention was not effective in reducing depressive symptoms or fear of falling compared to one-time counselling in the total sample. However, in subgroup analyses, depressive symptoms reduced statistically significantly more among the men and older participants of the intervention group compared to the control group. Female gender, high physical and cognitive abilities and low self-perceived probability of falling were independent predictors of higher adherence in organised activities. In conclusion, few psychological benefits were gained during this multifactorial fall prevention trial. More attention should be focused on adherence, especially among the aged with functional disabilities.

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Size Effect and Notch Size Effect in Metal Fatigue

It is a well known phenomenon that the constant amplitude fatigue limit of a large component is lower than the fatigue limit of a small specimen made of the same material. In notched components the opposite occurs: the fatigue limit defined as the maximum stress at the notch is higher than that achieved with smooth specimens. These two effects have been taken into account in most design handbooks with the help of experimental formulas or design curves. The basic idea of this study is that the size effect can mainly be explained by the statistical size effect. A component subjected to an alternating load can be assumed to form a sample of initiated cracks at the end of the crack initiation phase. The size of the sample depends on the size of the specimen in question. The main objective of this study is to develop a statistical model for the estimation of this kind of size effect. It was shown that the size of a sample of initiated cracks shall be based on the stressed surface area of the specimen. In case of varying stress distribution, an effective stress area must be calculated. It is based on the decreasing probability of equally sized initiated cracks at lower stress level. If the distribution function of the parent population of cracks is known, the distribution of the maximum crack size in a sample can be defined. This makes it possible to calculate an estimate of the largest expected crack in any sample size. The estimate of the fatigue limit can now be calculated with the help of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. In notched components another source of size effect has to be taken into account. If we think about two specimens which have similar shape, but the size is different, it can be seen that the stress gradient in the smaller specimen is steeper. If there is an initiated crack in both of them, the stress intensity factor at the crack in the larger specimen is higher. The second goal of this thesis is to create a calculation method for this factor which is called the geometric size effect. The proposed method for the calculation of the geometric size effect is also based on the use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics. It is possible to calculate an accurate value of the stress intensity factor in a non linear stress field using weight functions. The calculated stress intensity factor values at the initiated crack can be compared to the corresponding stress intensity factor due to constant stress. The notch size effect is calculated as the ratio of these stress intensity factors. The presented methods were tested against experimental results taken from three German doctoral works. Two candidates for the parent population of initiated cracks were found: the Weibull distribution and the log normal distribution. Both of them can be used successfully for the prediction of the statistical size effect for smooth specimens. In case of notched components the geometric size effect due to the stress gradient shall be combined with the statistical size effect. The proposed method gives good results as long as the notch in question is blunt enough. For very sharp notches, stress concentration factor about 5 or higher, the method does not give sufficient results. It was shown that the plastic portion of the strain becomes quite high at the root of this kind of notches. The use of the linear elastic fracture mechanics becomes therefore questionable.

Simplified sample handing in mass spectrometry based protein research - focus on protein phosphorylation

The human genome comprises roughly 20 000 protein coding genes. Proteins are the building material for cells and tissues, and proteins are functional compounds having an important role in many cellular responses, such as cell signalling. In multicellular organisms such as humans, cells need to communicate with each other in order to maintain a normal function of the tissues within the body. This complex signalling between and within cells is transferred by proteins and their post-translational modifications, one of the most important being phosphorylation. The work presented here concerns the development and use of tools for phosphorylation analysis. Mass spectrometers have become essential tools to study proteins and proteomes. In mass spectrometry oriented proteomics, proteins can be identified and their post-translational modifications can be studied. In this Ph.D. thesis the objectives were to improve the robustness of sample handling methods prior to mass spectrometry analysis for peptides and their phosphorylation status. The focus was to develop strategies that enable acquisition of more MS measurements per sample, higher quality MS spectra and simplified and rapid enrichment procedures for phosphopeptides. Furthermore, an objective was to apply these methods to characterize phosphorylation sites of phosphopeptides. In these studies a new MALDI matrix was developed which allowed more homogenous, intense and durable signals to be acquired when compared to traditional CHCA matrix. This new matrix along with other matrices was subsequently used to develop a new method that combines multiple spectra from different matrises from identical peptides. With this approach it was possible to identify more phosphopeptides than with conventional LC/ESI-MS/MS methods, and to use 5 times less sample. Also, phosphopeptide affinity MALDI target was prepared to capture and immobilise phosphopeptides from a standard peptide mixture while maintaining their spatial orientation. In addition a new protocol utilizing commercially available conductive glass slides was developed that enabled fast and sensitive phosphopeptide purification. This protocol was applied to characterize the in vivo phosphorylation of a signalling protein, NFATc1. Evidence for 12 phosphorylation sites were found, and many of those were found in multiply phosphorylated peptides