Ennakoiva vikojen havaitseminen liityntäverkosta

Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu mahdollisuuksia ennakoida ja havaita kaapelivikoja mahdollisimman varhaisessa vaiheessa teleoperaattorin liityntäverkosta, joka käsittää optisen rajapinnan ja asiakkaan välisen parikaapeleilla toteutetun osan verkkoa. Liityntäverkon ikääntyessä kaapeleiden ja liitosten viat yleistyvät sekä niiden korjauskustannukset kasvavat. Mahdollisimmanvarhaisessa vaiheessa vikoja havaitsemalla ehkäistään vikojen laajentumista sekä asiakkaiden palveluiden katkeamista. Kannattavin tapa toteuttaa liityntäverkon vikoja ennakoiva järjestelmä Elisa Oyj:n tapauksessa on hyödyntää yrityksessä uudistettua DSL-tekniikkaa. DSLAM:eilla päivittäin suoritetuilla mittauksilla voidaan havaita liityntäverkon kaapeleiden kunnon heikkeneminen sekä vikaantumiset. Työssä on tutkittu vikatapausten aiheuttamia muutoksia linjojen sähköisiin ominaisuuksiin sekä niiden näkymistä mittaustuloksissa. Työssä löydettiin menetelmät toteuttaa liityntäverkon kuntoa mittaava ja tarkkaileva järjestelmä. Ennakoivalla toiminnalla voidaan aikaansaada merkittäviä kustannussäästöjä viankorjausprosessin eri vaiheissa sekä parantaa palveluiden laatua.

Covariance Matrix Estimation and Mean-Variance Optimization in application to International Diversification

Tutkimus keskittyy kansainväliseen hajauttamiseen suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite on selvittää tehostavatko uudet kovarianssimatriisiestimaattorit minimivarianssiportfolion optimointiprosessia. Tavallisen otoskovarianssimatriisin lisäksi optimoinnissa käytetään kahta kutistusestimaattoria ja joustavaa monimuuttuja-GARCH(1,1)-mallia. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu Dow Jonesin toimialaindekseistä ja OMX-H:n portfolioindeksistä. Kansainvälinen hajautusstrategia on toteutettu käyttäen toimialalähestymistapaa ja portfoliota optimoidaan käyttäen kahtatoista komponenttia. Tutkimusaieisto kattaa vuodet 1996-2005 eli 120 kuukausittaista havaintoa. Muodostettujen portfolioiden suorituskykyä mitataan Sharpen indeksillä. Tutkimustulosten mukaan kansainvälisesti hajautettujen investointien ja kotimaisen portfolion riskikorjattujen tuottojen välillä ei ole tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa. Myöskään uusien kovarianssimatriisiestimaattoreiden käytöstä ei synnytilastollisesti merkitsevää lisäarvoa verrattuna otoskovarianssimatrisiin perustuvaan portfolion optimointiin.

A novel approachfor assessing the fatigue strength of ultrasonic impact treated welded structures.

It is commonly observed that complex fabricated structures subject tofatigue loading fail at the welded joints. Some problems can be corrected by proper detail design but fatigue performance can also be improved using post-weld improvement methods. In general, improvement methods can be divided into two main groups: weld geometry modification methods and residual stress modification methods. The former remove weld toe defects and/or reduce the stress concentrationwhile the latter introduce compressive stress fields in the area where fatigue cracks are likely to initiate. Ultrasonic impact treatment (UIT) is a novel post-weld treatment method that influences both the residual stress distribution andimproves the local geometry of the weld. The structural fatigue strength of non-load carrying attachments in the as-welded condition has been experimentally compared to the structural fatigue strength of ultrasonic impact treated welds. Longitudinal attachment specimens made of two thicknesses of steel S355 J0 have been tested for determining the efficiency of ultrasonic impacttreatment. Treated welds were found to have about 50% greater structural fatigue strength, when the slope of the S-N-curve is three. High mean stress fatigue testing based on the Ohta-method decreased the degree of weld improvement only 19%. This indicated that the method could be also applied for large fabricated structures operating under high reactive residual stresses equilibrated within the volume of the structure. The thickness of specimens has no significant effect tothe structural fatigue strength. The fatigue class difference between 5 mm and 8 mm specimen was only 8%. It was hypothesized that the UIT method added a significant crack initiation period to the total fatigue life of the welded joints. Crack initiation life was estimated by a local strain approach. Material parameters were defined using a modified Uniform Material Law developed in Germany. Finite element analysis and X-ray diffraction were used to define, respectively, the stress concentration and mean stress. The theoretical fatigue life was found to have good accuracy comparing to experimental fatigue tests.The predictive behaviour of the local strain approach combined with the uniformmaterial law was excellent for the joint types and conditions studied in this work.

Development of Color Difference Equations Matching to Human Vision System

Research on color difference evaluation has been active in recent thirty years. Several color difference formulas were developed for industrial applications. The aims of this thesis are to develop the color density which is denoted by comb g and to propose the color density based chromaticity difference formulas. Color density is derived from the discrimination ellipse parameters and color positions in the xy , xyY and CIELAB color spaces, and the color based chromaticity difference formulas are compared with the line element formulas and CIE 2000 color difference formulas. As a result of the thesis, color density represents the perceived color difference accurately, and it could be used to characterize a color by the attribute of perceived color difference from this color.

Modelling mean above and below ground litter production based on yield tables

Selective papers of the workshop on "Development of models and forest soil surveys for monitoring of soil carbon", Koli, Finland, April 5-9 2006.

Venous thromboembolism and obstruction after pacemaker implantation. - A Prospective Study of 150 Consecutive Cardiac Pacing Device Implantations

Background: Pacemaker implantation (PMI) may predispose to venous thromboembolism (VTE) and obstruction (VO). This prospective study aimed at quantifying changes in venous calibers, and at determining the incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic VTE/VO after PMI. Further goals included an assessment of the role of transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) in the diagnosis of lead-related central venous thrombi (CVT), and determination of predictors for VTE/VO. Methods: 150 (mean age 67; 61% male) consecutive patients with first PMI were enrolled and followed for 6 months. Contrast venography was performed at baseline and 6 months after PMI to measure venous diameters, and to detect stenosis, total occlusions and thrombi. TEE was conducted in 66 patients. Based on clinical suspicion, work-up for pulmonary embolism (PE) or acute deep vein thrombosis (DVT) were performed as needed. A total of 50 cases underwent longer-term (mean 2.4 years) follow-up venography. All cases with VTE/VO during the initial 6 months, and their matched controls, were selected for a case-control study focused on possible predictive role of laboratory and patient-related factors for the development of VTE/VO. Results: 10 (7 %) patients were found to have baseline venous abnormalities (e.g. 8 obstructions). Mean venous diameters diminished significantly during the first 6 months, but no further reduction occurred in late follow-up. New VO was discovered in 19 patients (14 %; 14 stenosis, 5 total occlusions; all asymptomatic). Small non-obstructive thrombi were found in 20/140 (14 %) 6-month venograms. TEE at 6 months disclosed CVT in 6 (9 %) patients. One (0.7 %) patient had acute symptomatic upper-extremity DVT, and PE was discovered in 5/150 (3.3 %) patients during the first 6 months with no further cases thereafter. At 6 months, the total number of cases with VTE/VO amounted to 47 (31.3 %). Additionally, the later 2-year venograms (n=50) disclosed 4 (8 %) total occlusions and 1 (2 %) stenosis. In the case-control study, no parameter was predictive of venous end-points as a single variable, but there appeared to be significant clustering of traditional VTE risk-factors among the cases. Laboratory parameters showed a definite acute hypercoagulative state induced by PMI, but its degree did not predict subsequent development of VTE/VO. Conclusions: This study shows that VTE/VO is relatively common after PMI with an overall incidence of at least 30 %. Although the majority of the lesions are asymptomatic and clinically benign, cases of PE were also encountered, and totally occluded veins may hamper future upgrading or replacement of pacing system. Venous complications seem difficult to prognosticate as firm predictors were not identified from a wide range of parameters analyzed in this study, although clustering of classic VTE risk factors may be a predisposing factor. Parameters related to implantation procedure or pacing systems and the severity of implantation-induced trauma did not emerge as predictors.

A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Ostotapahtuman ennustemallin kehittäminen ajoneuvomarkkinoinnin tueksi

Perinteisesti ajoneuvojen markkinointikampanjoissa kohderyhmät muodostetaan yksinkertaisella kriteeristöllä koskien henkilön tai hänen ajoneuvonsa ominaisuuksia. Ennustavan analytiikan avulla voidaan tuottaa kohderyhmänmuodostukseen teknisesti kompleksisia mutta kuitenkin helppokäyttöisiä menetelmiä. Tässä työssä on sovellettu luokittelu- ja regressiomenetelmiä uuden auton ostajien joukkoon. Tämän työn menetelmiksi on rajattu tukivektorikone sekä Coxin regressiomalli. Coxin regression avulla on tutkittu elinaika-analyysien soveltuvuutta ostotapahtuman tapahtumahetken mallintamiseen. Luokittelu tukivektorikonetta käyttäen onnistuu tehtävässään noin 72% tapauksissa. Tukivektoriregressiolla mallinnetun hankintahetken virheen keskiarvo on noin neljä kuukautta. Työn tulosten perusteella myös elinaika-analyysin käyttö ostotapahtuman tapahtumahetken mallintamiseen on menetelmänä käyttökelpoinen.

The prognostic and predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer

Tissue-based biomarkers are studied to receive information about the pathologic processes and cancer outcome, and to enable development of patient-tailored treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential prognostic and/or predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC). Group IIA secretory phospholipase A2 (IIA PLA2) expression was assessed in 114 samples presenting different phases of human colorectal carcinogenesis. Securin, Ki-67, CD44 variant 6 (CD44v6), aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) and β-catenin were studied in a material including 227 rectal carcinoma patients treated with short-course preoperative radiotherapy (RT), long-course preoperative (chemo)RT (CRT) or surgery only. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene copy number (GCN), its heterogeneity in CRC tissue, and association with response to EGFR-targeted antibodies cetuximab and panitumumab were analyzed in a cohort of 76 metastatic CRC. IIA PLA2 expression was decreased in invasive carcinomas compared to adenomas, but did not relate to patient survival. High securin expression after long-course (C)RT and high ALDH1 expression in node-negative rectal cancer were independent adverse prognostic factors, ALDH1 specifically in patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. The lack of membranous CD44v6 in the rectal cancer invasive front associated with infiltrative growth pattern and the risk of disease recurrence. Heterogeneous EGFR GCN increase predicted benefit from EGFR-targeted antibodies, also in the chemorefractory patient population. In summary, high securin and ALDH1 protein expression independently relate to poor outcome in subgroups of rectal cancer patients, potentially because of resistance to conventional chemotherapeutics. Heterogeneous increase in EGFR GCN was validated to be a promising predictive factor in the treatment of metastatic CRC.

Adult education policy in the European Union during the Lisbon decade : the shift to vocational adult learning and work skills matching

This doctoral dissertation investigates the adult education policy of the European Union (EU) in the framework of the Lisbon agenda 2000–2010, with a particular focus on the changes of policy orientation that occurred during this reference decade. The year 2006 can be considered, in fact, a turning point for the EU policy-making in the adult learning sector: a radical shift from a wide--ranging and comprehensive conception of educating adults towards a vocationally oriented understanding of this field and policy area has been observed, in particular in the second half of the so--called ‘Lisbon decade’. In this light, one of the principal objectives of the mainstream policy set by the Lisbon Strategy, that of fostering all forms of participation of adults in lifelong learning paths, appears to have muted its political background and vision in a very short period of time, reflecting an underlying polarisation and progressive transformation of European policy orientations. Hence, by means of content analysis and process tracing, it is shown that the new target of the EU adult education policy, in this framework, has shifted from citizens to workers, and the competence development model, borrowed from the corporate sector, has been established as the reference for the new policy road maps. This study draws on the theory of governance architectures and applies a post-ontological perspective to discuss whether the above trends are intrinsically due to the nature of the Lisbon Strategy, which encompasses education policies, and to what extent supranational actors and phenomena such as globalisation influence the European governance and decision--making. Moreover, it is shown that the way in which the EU is shaping the upgrading of skills and competences of adult learners is modeled around the needs of the ‘knowledge economy’, thus according a great deal of importance to the ‘new skills for new jobs’ and perhaps not enough to life skills in its broader sense which include, for example, social and civic competences: these are actually often promoted but rarely implemented in depth in the EU policy documents. In this framework, it is conveyed how different EU policy areas are intertwined and interrelated with global phenomena, and it is emphasised how far the building of the EU education systems should play a crucial role in the formation of critical thinking, civic competences and skills for a sustainable democratic citizenship, from which a truly cohesive and inclusive society fundamentally depend, and a model of environmental and cosmopolitan adult education is proposed in order to address the challenges of the new millennium. In conclusion, an appraisal of the EU’s public policy, along with some personal thoughts on how progress might be pursued and actualised, is outlined.