Generating a raster map presentation of a forest resource by solving a transportation problem

Abstract

Product Standardization of Shell and Tube Heat Exchangers

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli selvittää, kuinka kohdeyrityksessä nykyhetkellä pitkältiräätälöitynä tuotetut putkilämmönvaihtimet voitaisiin standardisoida, jotta pystyttäisiin kohdistamaan resursseja oikein ja parantamaan siten yrityksen taloudellista suorituskykyä. Tutkimuksen edetessä määräävimmäksi tekijäksi työn tuloksia ajatellen nousi taloudellinen standardisointiaste, jonka perusteeksi kohdeyrityksen putkilämmönvaihtimissa valittiin standardisoitu suunnitteluohjeisto. Suunnitteluohjeiston lisäksi tuotestandardiin liitettiin ehdotus toimintapojen automatisoimisesta parametrisen valintataulukon sekä sähköisen manuaalin avulla. Työssä tuotestandardisointia tarkastellaan rationalisointi-investointina ja sen kannattavuutta on tarkasteltu investointilaskelmien sekä herkkyys analyysin avulla. Alkuarvot investointilaskelmissa perustuvat työssä yhdelle putkilämmönvaihtimelletoteutettuun tuotestandardisointitapaan, jos tätä tapaa käytettäisiin jatkossa kaikkiin kyseisen yksikön putkilämmönvaihtimiin.

Relative Technical Efficiency of European Transportation Systems

Talouden kasvaessa myös tavarankuljetusmäärät kasvavat. Kuljetusjärjestelmät ja niiden sujuva toiminta on erittäin tärkeää taloudellisen kasvun kannalta tällä hetkellä, ja se tulee olemaan yhä tärkeämpää tulevaisuudessa. Tulevaisuudessa tarvitaan kokonaisvaltainen ja selkeästi tehokkaampi kuljetusjärjestelmä, mikäli tulevaisuuden kuljetusvirrat halutaan hoitaa kestävästi. Tässä opinnäytetyössäni tutkin kolmen eurooppalaisen kuljetusjärjestelmän (rautatiet, lentoliikenne ja konttiliikenne meritse) suhteellista teknistä tehokkuutta ja menetelmänä on data envelopment analysis (DEA). Vertailtaessa kuljetusjärjestelmiä löytyi suuria eroja kuljetusmuotojen välille. lentoyhtiöt suoriutuivat huomattavan tasaisesti eli tehokkaiden ja ei-tehokkaiden toimijoiden välillä ei ollut suuria eroja. Rautatiepuolella erot venyivät huomattavan suuriksi niin eri yritysten välillä kuin jopa saman yrityksen sisällä eri vuosina. Pikaisemmassa laivayhtiöiden tarkastelussa erot niiden välillä olivat lähes yhtä pieniä kuin lentoyhtiöiden välillä. Tarkasteltaessa omistajuuden vaikutusta lentoyhtiöiden toiminnassa huomattiin, että yksityisessä omistuksessa olevat yritykset olivat huomattavasti tehokkaampia matkustajien kuljettamisessa. Rahtipuolella merkittäviä eroja ei havaittu. Merkittävät korrelaatiot eri mallien välillä antoivat joitain viitteitä myös kuljetuspoliittiseen päätöksentekoon; investoinnit matkustajienkuljetuksiin raiteilla parantaisivat koko rautatiepuolen teokkuutta, mutta myös samalla lentopuolen matkustajakuljetuksen tehokkuutta.

Railcarrier in Intermodal Freight Transportation Network

The major objective of this thesis is to describe and analyse how a railcarrier is engaged in an intermodal freight transportation network through its role and position. Because of the fact that the role as a conceptualisation has a lot of parallels with the position, both these phenomena are evaluated theoretically and empirically. VR Cargo (a strategical business unitof the Finnish railway company VR Ltd.) was chosen to be the focal firm surrounded by the actors of the focal net. Because of the fact that networks are sets of relationships rather than sets of actors, it is essential to describe the dimensions of the relationships created through the time thus having a past, presentand future. The roles are created during long common history shared by the actors especially when IM networks are considered. The presence of roles is embeddedin the tasks, and the future is anchored to the expectations. Furthermore, in this study role refers to network dynamics, and to incremental and radical changes in the network, in a similar way as position refers to stability and to the influences of bonded structures. The main purpose of the first part of the study was to examine how the two distinctive views that have a dominant position in modern logistics ¿ the network view (particularly IMP-based network approach) and the managerial view (represented by Supply Chain Management) differ, especially when intermodalism is under consideration. In this study intermodalism was defined as a form of interorganisational behaviour characterized by the physical movement of unitized goods with Intermodal Transport Units, using more than one mode as performed by the net of operators. In this particular stage the study relies mainly on theoretical evaluation broadened by some discussions with the practitioners. This is essential, because the continuous dialogue between theory and practice is highly emphasized. Some managerial implications are discussed on the basis of the theoretical examination. A tentative model for empirical analysis in subsequent research is suggested. The empirical investigation, which relies on the interviews among the members in the focal net, shows that the major role of the focal company in the network is the common carrier. This role has some behavioural and functional characteristics, such as an executive's disclosure expressing strategic will attached with stable and predictable managerial and organisational behaviour. Most important is the notion that the focal company is neutral for all the other operators, and willing to enhance and strengthen the collaboration with all the members in the IM network. This also means that all the accounts are aimed at being equal in terms of customer satisfaction. Besides, the adjustments intensify the adopted role. However, the focal company is also obliged tosustain its role as it still has a government-erected right to maintain solely the railway operations on domestic tracks. In addition, the roles of a dominator, principal, partner, subcontractor, and integrator were present appearing either in a dyadic relationship or in net(work) context. In order to reveal differentroles, a dualistic interpretation of the concept of role/position was employed.

Increasing Industrial Customer Value through the Internet in Transportation Services

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, kuinka sähköisiä palveluita tarjoamalla voidaan tuottaa asiakkaalle lisäarvoa yritysten välisessä kaupankäynnissä. Tarkastelunäkökulmana oli kuljetuspalveluita tarjoava yritys. Teoreettinen tutkimus pohjautui palveluiden markkinointiin, erityisesti palvelun laatuun, asiakkaan kokeman arvon lisäämiseen, asiakkaan odotuksiin, sekä Internetin välityksellä käytävään sähköiseen kauppaan. Kyselytutkimuksella selvitettiin lähinnä asiakkaiden odotuksia, koska sähköisiä palveluita ei vielä ole laajalti käytössä. Tutkimuksen mukaan asiakkaat kokivat useimmat ehdotetuista palveluista, kuten ajantasaisen reitti- ja aikataulupalvelun, tarkan lähtö- ja tuloinformaation, sekä konttien seurantapalvelun, lisäarvoa tuoviksi. Toisaalta yrityksen tarjoama uutispalvelu, tavaroiden tullaus ja keskustelufoorumi sähköisessä muodossa eivät tuntuneet luovan asiakkaille lisäarvoa.

The Optimisation of the Draft Tube of a Hydro Power Plant at Off-Design Conditions

Several possible methods of increasing the efficiency and power of hydro power plants by improving the flow passages are investigated in this stydy. The theoretical background of diffuser design and its application to the optimisation of hydraulic turbine draft tubes is presented in the first part of this study. Several draft tube modernisation projects that have been carried out recently are discussed. Also, a method of increasing the efficiency of the draft tube by injecting a high velocity jet into the boundary layer is presented. Methods of increasing the head of a hydro power plant by using an ejector or a jet pump are discussed in the second part of this work. The theoretical principles of various ejector and jet pump types are presented and four different methods of calculating them are examined in more detail. A self-made computer code is used to calculate the gain in the head for two example power plants. Suitable ejector installations for the example plants are also discussed. The efficiency of the ejector power was found to be in the range 6 - 15 % for conventional head increasers, and 30 % for the jet pump at its optimum operating point. In practice, it is impossible to install an optimised jet pump with a 30 % efficiency into the draft tube as this would considerabely reduce the efficiency of the draft tube at normal operating conditions. This demonstrates, however, the potential for improvement which lies in conventional head increaser technology. This study is based on previous publications and on published test results. No actual laboratory measurements were made for this study. Certain aspects of modelling the flow in the draft tube using computational fluid dynamics are discussed in the final part of this work. The draft tube inlet velocity field is a vital boundary condition for such a calculation. Several previously measured velocity fields that have successfully been utilised in such flow calculations are presented herein.

Pneumatic Conveying of Granular Materials in a Pilot Scale Downer-Riser System

Studies regarding the field of this work aim to substitute industrial mechanical conveyors with pneumatic conveyors to overcome the disadvantages in solids flow regulation and risks posed to production and health. The experimental part of this work examines how the granular material properties, fluidizing airflow rate, equipment geometry, and pressures along the pipes affect the mass flow rate through the system. The results are compared with those obtained from previous experiments conducted with alumina. Experiments were carried out with a pilot scale downer-riser system at Outotec Research Center Frankfurt. Granular materi-als used in this work are named as sand, ilmenite, iron ore 1 and iron ore 2.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)

Calculation of the critical crack size for cold form rectangular hollow section tube (CRHS) under bending load at -40º C temperature

To predict the capacity of the structure or the point which is followed by instability, calculation of the critical crack size is important. Structures usually contain several cracks but not necessarily all of these cracks lead to failure or reach the critical size. So, defining the harmful cracks or the crack size which is the most leading one to failure provides criteria for structure’s capacity at elevated temperature. The scope of this thesis was to calculate fracture parameters like stress intensity factor, the J integral and plastic and ultimate capacity of the structure to estimate critical crack size for this specific structure. Several three dimensional (3D) simulations using finite element method by Ansys program and boundary element method by Frank 3D program were carried out to calculate fracture parameters and results with the aid of laboratory tests (loaddisplacement curve, the J resistance curve and yield or ultimate stress) leaded to extract critical size of the crack. Two types of the fracture which is usually affected by temperature, Elastic and Elasti-Plastic fractures were simulated by performing several linear elastic and nonlinear elastic analyses. Geometry details of the weldment; flank angle and toe radius were also studied independently to estimate the location of crack initiation and simulate stress field in early stages of crack extension in structure. In this work also overview of the structure’s capacity in room temperature (20 ºC) was studied. Comparison of the results in different temperature (20 ºC and -40 ºC) provides a threshold of the structure’s behavior within the defined range.

Ruokohelven käytön lisääminen Joensuun voimalaitoksen kattilassa – käytettävyys, hyötysuhde ja taloudellisuus

Ruokohelpi soveltuu ympäristöystävällisyyden ja korkean lämpöarvon vuoksi hyvin energiantuotantoon. Fortumin Joensuun voimalaitoksella ruokohelpi on syötetty kattilaan tähän asti pääasiassa pääpolttoaineisiin, turpeeseen tai hakkeeseen seostettuna pieninä energiaosuuksina. Pääpolttoaineisiin verrattuna ruokohelvellä on alhaisempi irto- ja energiatiheys, korkeampi klooripitoisuus ja kattilaa likaavampi tuhka, mikä asettaa rajoitteita sen käytön lisäämiselle voimalaitoksella. Alhaisesta irto- ja energiatiheydestä johtuvan holvautumisen sekä tukoksien lisääntymisen ja Joensuun voimalaitoksen nykyisten kuljettimien kapasiteettiongelmien vuoksi ruokohelven osuuden lisääminen suuremmaksi kuin 5 % polttoaine-energiasisällöstä on riskialtista ja edellyttää täten investointia erilliseen ruokohelven käsittely- ja syöttöjärjestelmään. Yksi vaihtoehto on murskata ruokohelpipaalit joko sähkökäyttöisellä, puolikiinteällä ja nopeakäyntisellä Haybuster H1130 tilt -murskaimella tai kiinteällä ja hidaskäyntisellä Raumaster-murskaimella ja ohjata ruokohelpisilppu joko pitkän mekaanisen kuljettimen ja sen perässä olevien lyhyiden pneumalinjojen tai pelkkien pitkien pneumalinjojen kautta suoraan kattilapesään. Työssä tutkitut investoinnit ovat taloudellisesti sitä kannattavampia mitä enemmän ruokohelpeä voidaan vuositasolla polttaa voimalaitoksella. Ruokohelven käyttömäärää voimalaitoksella kannattanee lisätä kuljetusmatkaa pidentämällä. Investointien valinta ei ole itsestäänselvyys. Nopeakäyntinen murskain on hidaskäyntistä murskainta edullisempi investointi, tosin hidaskäyntisen murskaimen käyttövarmuus on parempi kuin nopeakäyntisen murskaimen. Kattilan käytettävyyden kannalta ruokohelven käytön lisääminen edellyttää kattilan palamistekniikan analysointia laskennallisesti virtausmallinnuksella ennen kuin lopullisia päätöksiä investointien suhteen voidaan tehdä.

Numerical Investigation of Flow Past a Circular Cylinder and in a Staggered Tube Bundle Using Various Turbulence Models

Transitional flow past a three-dimensional circular cylinder is a widely studied phenomenon since this problem is of interest with respect to many technical applications. In the present work, the numerical simulation of flow past a circular cylinder, performed by using a commercial CFD code (ANSYS Fluent 12.1) with large eddy simulation (LES) and RANS (κ - ε and Shear-Stress Transport (SST) κ - ω! model) approaches. The turbulent flow for ReD = 1000 & 3900 is simulated to investigate the force coefficient, Strouhal number, flow separation angle, pressure distribution on cylinder and the complex three dimensional vortex shedding of the cylinder wake region. The numerical results extracted from these simulations have good agreement with the experimental data (Zdravkovich, 1997). Moreover, grid refinement and time-step influence have been examined. Numerical calculations of turbulent cross-flow in a staggered tube bundle continues to attract interest due to its importance in the engineering application as well as the fact that this complex flow represents a challenging problem for CFD. In the present work a time dependent simulation using κ – ε, κ - ω! and SST models are performed in two dimensional for a subcritical flow through a staggered tube bundle. The predicted turbulence statistics (mean and r.m.s velocities) have good agreement with the experimental data (S. Balabani, 1996). Turbulent quantities such as turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation rate are predicted using RANS models and compared with each other. The sensitivity of grid and time-step size have been analyzed. Model constants sensitivity study have been carried out by adopting κ – ε model. It has been observed that model constants are very sensitive to turbulence statistics and turbulent quantities.

Corrosion behaviour of boiler tube materials during combustion of fuels containing Zn and Pb

Många förbränningsanläggningar som bränner utmanande bränslen såsom restfraktioner och avfall råkar ut för problem med ökad korrosion på överhettare och/eller vattenväggar pga. komponenter i bränslena som är korrosiva. För att minimera problemen i avfallseldade pannor hålls ångparametrarna på en relativt låg nivå, vilket drastiskt minskar energiproduktionen. Beläggningarna i avfallseldade pannor består till största delen av element som är förknippade med högtemperaturkorrosion: Cl, S, alkalimetaller, främst K och Na, och tungmetaller som Pb och Zn, och det finns också indikationer av Br-förekomst. Det låga ångtrycket i avfallseldade pannor påverkar också stålrörens temperatur i pannväggarna i eldstaden. I dagens läge hålls temperaturen normalt vid 300-400 °C. Alkalikloridorsakad (KCl, NaCl) högtemperaturkorrosion har inte rapporterats vara relevant vid såpass låga temperaturer, men närvaro av Zn- och Pb-komponenter i beläggningarna har påvisats förorsaka ökad korrosion redan vid 300-400 °C. Vid förbränning kan Zn och Pb reagera med S och Cl och bilda klorider och sulfater i rökgaserna. Dessa tungmetallföreningar är speciellt problematiska pga. de bildar lågsmältande saltblandningar. Dessa lågsmältande gasformiga eller fasta föreningar följer rökgasen och kan sedan fastna eller kondensera på kallare ytor på pannväggar eller överhettare för att sedan bilda aggressiva beläggningar. Tungmetallrika (Pb, Zn) klorider och sulfater ökar risken för korrosion, och effekten förstärks ytterligare vid närvaro av smälta. Motivet med den här studien var att få en bättre insikt i högtemperaturkorrosion förorsakad av Zn och Pb, samt att undersöka och prediktera beteendet och motståndskraften hos några stålkvaliteter som används i överhettare och pannväggar i tungmetallrika förhållanden och höga materialtemperaturer. Omfattande laboratorie-, småskale- och fullskaletest utfördes. Resultaten kan direkt utnyttjas i praktiska applikationer, t.ex. vid materialval, eller vid utveckling av korrosionsmotverkande verktyg för att hitta initierande faktorer och förstå deras effekt på högtemperaturkorrosion.

Improving Transportation and Warehousing Efficiency with Simulation-Based Decision Support Systems

Transportation and warehousing are large and growing sectors in the society, and their efficiency is of high importance. Transportation also has a large share of global carbondioxide emissions, which are one the leading causes of anthropogenic climate warming. Various countries have agreed to decrease their carbon emissions according to the Kyoto protocol. Transportation is the only sector where emissions have steadily increased since the 1990s, which highlights the importance of transportation efficiency. The efficiency of transportation and warehousing can be improved with the help of simulations, but models alone are not sufficient. This research concentrates on the use of simulations in decision support systems. Three main simulation approaches are used in logistics: discrete-event simulation, systems dynamics, and agent-based modeling. However, individual simulation approaches have weaknesses of their own. Hybridization (combining two or more approaches) can improve the quality of the models, as it allows using a different method to overcome the weakness of one method. It is important to choose the correct approach (or a combination of approaches) when modeling transportation and warehousing issues. If an inappropriate method is chosen (this can occur if the modeler is proficient in only one approach or the model specification is not conducted thoroughly), the simulation model will have an inaccurate structure, which in turn will lead to misleading results. This issue can further escalate, as the decision-maker may assume that the presented simulation model gives the most useful results available, even though the whole model can be based on a poorly chosen structure. In this research it is argued that simulation- based decision support systems need to take various issues into account to make a functioning decision support system. The actual simulation model can be constructed using any (or multiple) approach, it can be combined with different optimization modules, and there needs to be a proper interface between the model and the user. These issues are presented in a framework, which simulation modelers can use when creating decision support systems. In order for decision-makers to fully benefit from the simulations, the user interface needs to clearly separate the model and the user, but at the same time, the user needs to be able to run the appropriate runs in order to analyze the problems correctly. This study recommends that simulation modelers should start to transfer their tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge. This would greatly benefit the whole simulation community and improve the quality of simulation-based decision support systems as well. More studies should also be conducted by using hybrid models and integrating simulations with Graphical Information Systems.

Survey of transportation of liquid bulk chemicals in the Baltic Sea

This study is made as a part of the Chembaltic (Risks of Maritime Transportation of Chemicals in Baltic Sea) project which gathers information on the chemicals transported in the Baltic Sea. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of handling volumes of liquid bulk chemicals (including liquefied gases) in the Baltic Sea ports and to find out what the most transported liquid bulk chemicals in the Baltic Sea are. Oil and oil products are also viewed in this study but only in a general level. Oils and oil products may also include chemical-related substances (e.g. certain bio-fuels which belong to MARPOL annex II category) in some cargo statistics. Chemicals in packaged form are excluded from the study. Most of the facts about the transport volumes of chemicals presented in this study are based on secondary written sources of Scandinavian, Russian, Baltic and international origin. Furthermore, statistical sources, academic journals, periodicals, newspapers and in later years also different homepages on the Internet have been used as sources of information. Chemical handling volumes in Finnish ports were examined in more detail by using a nationwide vessel traffic system called PortNet. Many previous studies have shown that the Baltic Sea ports are annually handling more than 11 million tonnes of liquid chemicals transported in bulk. Based on this study, it appears that the number may be even higher. The liquid bulk chemicals account for approximately 4 % of the total amount of liquid bulk cargoes handled in the Baltic Sea ports. Most of the liquid bulk chemicals are handled in Finnish and Swedish ports and their proportion of all liquid chemicals handled in the Baltic Sea is altogether over 50 %. The most handled chemicals in the Baltic Sea ports are methanol, sodium hydroxide solution, ammonia, sulphuric and phosphoric acid, pentanes, aromatic free solvents, xylenes, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and ethanol and ethanol solutions. All of these chemicals are handled at least hundred thousand tonnes or some of them even over 1 million tonnes per year, but since chemical-specific data from all the Baltic Sea countries is not available, the exact tonnages could not be calculated in this study. In addition to these above-mentioned chemicals, there are also other high volume chemicals handled in the Baltic Sea ports (e.g. ethylene, propane and butane) but exact tonnes are missing. Furthermore, high amounts of liquid fertilisers, such as solution of urea and ammonium nitrate in water, are transported in the Baltic Sea. The results of the study can be considered indicative. Updated information about transported chemicals in the Baltic Sea is the first step in the risk assessment of the chemicals. The chemical-specific transportation data help to target hazard or e.g. grounding/collision risk evaluations to chemicals that are handled most or have significant environmental hazard potential. Data gathered in this study will be used as background information in later stages of the Chembaltic project when the risks of the chemicals transported in the Baltic Sea are assessed to highlight the chemicals that require special attention from an environmental point of view in potential marine accident situations in the Baltic Sea area.

Oil Transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2020 and 2030

This study is part of the Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies (MIMIC) project. The purpose of this study is to provide a current state analysis of oil transportation volumes in the Baltic Sea and to create scenarios for oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland for the years 2020 and 2030. Future scenarios and information about oil transportation will be utilized in the modelling of oil transportation risks, which will be carried out as part of the MIMIC project. Approximately 290 million tons of oil and oil products were transported in the Baltic Sea in 2009, of which 55% (160 million tons) via the Gulf of Finland. Oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland have increased from 40 million to almost 160 million tonnes over the last ten years. In Russia and Estonia, oil transportation mainly consists of export transports of the Russian oil industry. In Finnish ports in the Gulf of Finland, the majority of oil traffic is concentrated to the port of Sköldvik, while the remainder mainly consists of different oil products for domestic use. Transit transports to/from Russia make up small volumes of oil transportation. The largest oil ports in the Gulf of Finland are Primorsk, Tallinn, St. Petersburg and Sköldvik. The basis for the scenarios for the years 2020 and 2030 is formed by national energy strategies, the EU`s climate and energy strategies as well other energy and transportation forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030. Three alternative scenarios were produced for both 2020 and 2030. The oil volumes are based on the expert estimates of nine specialists. The specialists gave three volumes for each scenario: the expected oil transport volumes, and the minimum and maximum volumes. Variations in the volumes between the scenarios are not large, but each scenario tends to have rather a large difference between the figures for minimum and maximum volumes. This variation between the minimum and maximum volumes ranges around 30 to 40 million tonnes depending on the scenario. On the basis of this study, no a dramatic increase in oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland is to be expected. Most of the scenarios only forecasted a moderate growth in maritime oil transportation compared to the current levels. The effects of the European energy policy favouring renewable energy sources can be seen in the 2030 scenarios, in which the transported oil volumes are smaller than in the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow development 2020 scenario, oil transport volumes for 2020 are expected to be 170.6 Mt (million tonnes), in the Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil volumes for the 2030 scenarios were 165 Mt for the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, 177.5 Mt for the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario and 169.5 Mt in the Decarbonising society 2030 scenario.