Proportionality and Party Success in Europe

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles are about proportionality and party success in Europe, at European, national or district levels. Proportionality in this thesis denotes the proximity of seat shares parties receive compared to their respective vote shares, after the electoral system’s allocation process. This proportionality can be measured through numerous indices that illustrate either the overall proportionality of an electoral system or a particular election. The correspondence of a single party’s seat shares to its vote shares can also be measured. The overall proportionality is essential in three of the articles (1, 2 and 4), where the system’s performance is studied by means of plots. In article 3, minority party success is measured by advantage-ratios that reveal single party’s winnings or losses in the votes to seat allocation process. The first article asks how proportional are the European parliamentary (EP) electoral systems, how do they compare with results gained from earlier studies and how do the EP electoral systems treat different sized parties. The reasons for different outcomes are looked for in explanations given by traditional electoral studies i.e. electoral system variables. The countries studied (EU15) apply electoral systems that vary in many important aspects, even though a certain amount of uniformity has been aspired to for decades. Since the electoral systems of the EP elections closely resemble the national elections, the same kinds of profiles emerge as in the national elections. The electoral systems indeed treat the parties differentially and six different profile types can be found. The counting method seems to somewhat determine the profile group, but the strongest variables determining the shape of a countries’ profile appears to be the average district magnitude and number of seats allocated to each country. The second article also focuses on overall proportionality performance of an electoral system, but here the focus is on the impact of electoral system changes. I have developed a new method of visualizing some previously used indices and some new indices for this purpose. The aim is to draw a comparable picture of these electoral systems’ changes and their effects. The cases, which illustrate this method, are four elections systems, where a change has occurred in one of the system variables, while the rest remained unchanged. The studied cases include the French, Greek and British European parliamentary systems and the Swedish national parliamentary system. The changed variables are electoral type (plurality changed to PR in the UK), magnitude (France splitting the nationwide district into eight smaller districts), legal threshold (Greece introducing a three percent threshold) and counting method (d’Hondt was changed to modified Sainte-Laguë in Sweden). The radar plots from elections after and before the changes are drawn for all country cases. When quantifying the change, the change in the plots area that is created has also been calculated. Using these radar plots we can observe that the change in electoral system type, magnitude, and also to some extent legal threshold had an effect on overall proportionality and accessibility for small parties, while the change between the two highest averages counting method had none. The third article studies the success minority parties have had in nine electoral systems in European heterogeneous countries. This article aims to add more motivation as to why we should care how different sized parties are treated by the electoral systems. Since many of the parties that aspire to represent minorities in European countries are small, the possibilities for small parties are highlighted. The theory of consociational (or power-sharing) democracy suggests that, in heterogeneous societies, a proportional electoral system will provide the fairest treatment of minority parties. The OSCE Lund Recommendations propose a number of electoral system features, which would improve minority representation. In this article some party variables, namely the unity of the minority parties and the geographical concentration of the minorities were included among possible explanations. The conclusions are that the central points affecting minority success were indeed these non-electoral system variables rather than the electoral system itself. Moreover, the size of the party was a major factor governing success in all the systems investigated; large parties benefited in all the studied electoral systems. In the fourth article the proportionality profiles are again applied, but this time to district level results in Finnish parliamentary elections. The level of proportionality distortion is also studied by way of indices. The average magnitudes during the studied periodrange from 7.5 to 26.2 in the Finnish electoral districts and this opens up unequal opportunities for parties in different districts and affects the shape of the profiles. The intra-country case allows the focus to be placed on the effect of district magnitude, since all other electoral systems are kept constant in an intra-country study. The time span in the study is from 1962 to 2007, i.e. the time that the districts have largely been the same geographically. The plots and indices tell the same story, district magnitude and electoral alliances matter. The district magnitude is connected to the overall proportionality of the electoral districts according to both indices, and the profiles are, as expected, also closer to perfect proportionality in large districts. Alliances have helped some small parties to gain a much higher seat share than their respective vote share and these successes affect some of the profiles. The profiles also show a consistent pattern of benefits for the small parties who ally with the larger parties.

From women to gender: a diachronic exploration of participant representation in texts from the United Nations

De förändrade ansatserna inom feministisk utvecklingsekonomi för med sig nya sätt att tala om kvinnor, män och utveckling. Genom att analysera texter skrivna inom området feministisk ekonomi från 1960-talet fram till början av 2000-talet dokumenterar den föreliggande studien på vilket sätt språket hos textproducenter inom utvecklingsekonomi konstituerar och är beroende av dessa skribenters inställning till utvecklingsfrågor och till kvinnor och män. Analysen fokuserar på hur aktiverings- och passiveringsprocesser används i representationen av de två huvuddeltagarna, kvinnor och män, hur begreppet genus introduceras och hur utvecklingsfrågor förändras genom ansatser, över tid och mellan genrer. Den teoretiska ramen sträcker sig över olika discipliner: systemisk funktionell grammatik och kritisk diskursanalys, men även organisatorisk diskursanalys och utvecklingsstudier. Texterna som valts för analysen härstammar från tre olika källor: planer från världskvinnokonferenserna organiserade av Förenta Nationerna, resolutioner om kvinnor och utveckling antagna av Förenta Nationernas generalförsamling samt handlingsplaner för kvinnor och utveckling författade av Förenta Nationernas livsmedels- och jordbruksorganisation FAO. Den lingvistiska analysmetoden bygger på det system av roller och sätt att representera deltagare som utvecklats av Halliday och Van Leeuwen. För varje årtionde och varje genre granskar studien förändringarna i processtyper och deltagarroller, samt förändringen av fokus på kvinnorelaterade frågor och konceptualiseringen av genus. Den kvantitativa analysen kompletteras och förstärks av en detaljerad analys av textfragment från olika tidpunkter och ansatser. Studiens resultat är av grammatisk och lexikal natur och de är relaterade till genus, genre och tid. Studien visar att aktiveringsprocesserna är betydligt talrikare än passiveringsprocesserna i representationen av kvinnor. En bättre förståelse av deltagarrepresentation uppnås dock via en omgruppering av de grammatiska processerna i identifierande, aktiverande och riktade processer. Skiftet från fokus på kvinnor till fokus på genus är inte så mycket en förändring av processerna som representerar deltagarna, utan mer en förändring av retoriken i ansatserna och deras fokus: från integration av kvinnor till kvinnors empowerment, från kvinnors situation till genusrelationer, från brådskande tillägg till social konflikt och samarbete.

Dialogue in the crisis of representation : realism and antirealism in the context of the conversation between theologians and quantum physicists in Göttingen 1949-1961

The aim of this study is to analyse the content of the interdisciplinary conversations in Göttingen between 1949 and 1961. The task is to compare models for describing reality presented by quantum physicists and theologians. Descriptions of reality indifferent disciplines are conditioned by the development of the concept of reality in philosophy, physics and theology. Our basic problem is stated in the question: How is it possible for the intramental image to match the external object?Cartesian knowledge presupposes clear and distinct ideas in the mind prior to observation resulting in a true correspondence between the observed object and the cogitative observing subject. The Kantian synthesis between rationalism and empiricism emphasises an extended character of representation. The human mind is not a passive receiver of external information, but is actively construing intramental representations of external reality in the epistemological process. Heidegger's aim was to reach a more primordial mode of understanding reality than what is possible in the Cartesian Subject-Object distinction. In Heidegger's philosophy, ontology as being-in-the-world is prior to knowledge concerning being. Ontology can be grasped only in the totality of being (Dasein), not only as an object of reflection and perception. According to Bohr, quantum mechanics introduces an irreducible loss in representation, which classically understood is a deficiency in knowledge. The conflicting aspects (particle and wave pictures) in our comprehension of physical reality, cannot be completely accommodated into an entire and coherent model of reality. What Bohr rejects is not realism, but the classical Einsteinian version of it. By the use of complementary descriptions, Bohr tries to save a fundamentally realistic position. The fundamental question in Barthian theology is the problem of God as an object of theological discourse. Dialectics is Barth¿s way to express knowledge of God avoiding a speculative theology and a human-centred religious self-consciousness. In Barthian theology, the human capacity for knowledge, independently of revelation, is insufficient to comprehend the being of God. Our knowledge of God is real knowledge in revelation and our words are made to correspond with the divine reality in an analogy of faith. The point of the Bultmannian demythologising programme was to claim the real existence of God beyond our faculties. We cannot simply define God as a human ideal of existence or a focus of values. The theological programme of Bultmann emphasised the notion that we can talk meaningfully of God only insofar as we have existential experience of his intervention. Common to all these twentieth century philosophical, physical and theological positions, is a form of anti-Cartesianism. Consequently, in regard to their epistemology, they can be labelled antirealist. This common insight also made it possible to find a common meeting point between the different disciplines. In this study, the different standpoints from all three areas and the conversations in Göttingen are analysed in the frameworkof realism/antirealism. One of the first tasks in the Göttingen conversations was to analyse the nature of the likeness between the complementary structures inquantum physics introduced by Niels Bohr and the dialectical forms in the Barthian doctrine of God. The reaction against epistemological Cartesianism, metaphysics of substance and deterministic description of reality was the common point of departure for theologians and physicists in the Göttingen discussions. In his complementarity, Bohr anticipated the crossing of traditional epistemic boundaries and the generalisation of epistemological strategies by introducing interpretative procedures across various disciplines.

Of pearls and pigs : a conceptual-semantic Tiernet approach to formal representation of structure and variation of phraseological units

"Helmiä sioille", pärlor för svin, säger man på finska om någonting bra och fint som tas emot av en mottagare som inte vill eller har ingen förmåga att förstå, uppskatta eller utnyttja hela den potential som finns hos det mottagna föremålet, är ointresserad av den eller gillar den inte. För sådana relativt stabila flerordiga uttryck, som är lagrade i språkbrukarnas minnen och som demonstrerar olika slags oregelbundna drag i sin struktur använder man inom lingvistiken bl.a. termerna "idiom" eller "fraseologiska enheter". Som en oregelbundenhet kan man t.ex. beskriva det faktum att betydelsen hos uttrycket inte är densamma som man skulle komma till ifall man betraktade det som en vanlig regelbunden fras. En annan oregelbundenhet, som idiomforskare har observerat, ligger i den begränsade förmågan att varieras i form och betydelse, som många idiom har jämfört med regelbundna fraser. Därför talas det ofta om "grundform" och "grundbetydelse" hos idiom och variationen avses som avvikelse från dessa. Men när man tittar på ett stort antal förekomstexempel av idiom i språkbruk, märker man att många av dem tillåter variation, t.o.m. i sådan utsträckning att gränserna mellan en variant och en "grundform" suddas ut, och istället för ett idiom råkar vi plötsligt på en "familj" av flera besläktade uttryck. Allt detta väcker frågan om hur dessa uttryck egentligen ska vara representerade i språket. I avhandlingen utförs en kritisk granskning av olika tidigare tillvägagångssätt att beskriva fraseologiska enheter i syfte att klargöra vilka svårigheter deras struktur och variation erbjuder för den lingvistiska teorin. Samtidigt presenteras ett alternativt sätt att beskriva dessa uttryck. En systematisk och formell modell som utvecklas i denna avhandling integrerar en beskrivning av idiom på många olika språkliga nivåer och skildrar deras variation i form av ett nätverk och som ett resultat av samspel mellan idiomets struktur och kontexter där det förekommer, samt av interaktion med andra fasta uttryck. Modellen bygger på en fördjupande, språkbrukbaserad analys av det finska idiomet "X HEITTÄÄ HELMIÄ SIOILLE" (X kastar pärlor för svin).

Effect of the Knowledge Representation Form on the Efficiency of Knowledge Sharing

The goal of this thesis is to estimate the effect of the form of knowledge representation on the efficiency of knowledge sharing. The objectives include the design of an experimental framework which would allow to establish this effect, data collection, and statistical analysis of the collected data. The study follows the experimental quantitative design. The experimental questionnaire features three sample forms of knowledge: text, mind maps, concept maps. In the interview, these forms are presented to an interviewee, afterwards the knowledge sharing time and knowledge sharing quality are measured. According to the statistical analysis of 76 interviews, text performs worse in both knowledge sharing time and quality compared to visualized forms of knowledge representation. However, mind maps and concept maps do not differ in knowledge sharing time and quality, since this difference is not statistically significant. Since visualized structured forms of knowledge perform better than unstructured text in knowledge sharing, it is advised for companies to foster the usage of these forms in knowledge sharing processes inside the company. Aside of performance in knowledge sharing, the visualized structured forms are preferable due the possibility of their usage in the system of ontological knowledge management within an enterprise.

Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.