A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Magnetic Resonance Experiments with Atomic Hydrogen

In this thesis three experiments with atomic hydrogen (H) at low temperatures T<1 K are presented. Experiments were carried out with two- (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) H gas, and with H atoms trapped in solid H2 matrix. The main focus of this work is on interatomic interactions, which have certain specific features in these three systems considered. A common feature is the very high density of atomic hydrogen, the systems are close to quantum degeneracy. Short range interactions in collisions between atoms are important in gaseous H. The system of H in H₂ differ dramatically because atoms remain fixed in the H₂ lattice and properties are governed by long-range interactions with the solid matrix and with H atoms. The main tools in our studies were the methods of magnetic resonance, with electron spin resonance (ESR) at 128 GHz being used as the principal detection method. For the first time in experiments with H in high magnetic fields and at low temperatures we combined ESR and NMR to perform electron-nuclear double resonance (ENDOR) as well as coherent two-photon spectroscopy. This allowed to distinguish between different types of interactions in the magnetic resonance spectra. Experiments with 2D H gas utilized the thermal compression method in homogeneous magnetic field, developed in our laboratory. In this work methods were developed for direct studies of 3D H at high density, and for creating high density samples of H in H₂. We measured magnetic resonance line shifts due to collisions in the 2D and 3D H gases. First we observed that the cold collision shift in 2D H gas composed of atoms in a single hyperfine state is much smaller than predicted by the mean-field theory. This motivated us to carry out similar experiments with 3D H. In 3D H the cold collision shift was found to be an order of magnitude smaller for atoms in a single hyperfine state than that for a mixture of atoms in two different hyperfine states. The collisional shifts were found to be in fair agreement with the theory, which takes into account symmetrization of the wave functions of the colliding atoms. The origin of the small shift in the 2D H composed of single hyperfine state atoms is not yet understood. The measurement of the shift in 3D H provides experimental determination for the difference of the scattering lengths of ground state atoms. The experiment with H atoms captured in H2 matrix at temperatures below 1 K originated from our work with H gas. We found out that samples of H in H2 were formed during recombination of gas phase H, enabling sample preparation at temperatures below 0.5 K. Alternatively, we created the samples by electron impact dissociation of H₂ molecules in situ in the solid. By the latter method we reached highest densities of H atoms reported so far, 3.5(5)x10¹⁹ cm^-3. The H atoms were found to be stable for weeks at temperatures below 0.5 K. The observation of dipolar interaction effects provides a verification for the density measurement. Our results point to two different sites for H atoms in H2 lattice. The steady-state nuclear polarizations of the atoms were found to be non-thermal. The possibility for further increase of the impurity H density is considered. At higher densities and lower temperatures it might be possible to observe phenomena related to quantum degeneracy in solid.

Stochastic variability of output levels in a pulp mill

Quite often, in the construction of a pulp mill involves establishing the size of tanks which will accommodate the material from the various processes in which case estimating the right tank size a priori would be vital. Hence, simulation of the whole production process would be worthwhile. Therefore, there is need to develop mathematical models that would mimic the behavior of the output from the various production units of the pulp mill to work as simulators. Markov chain models, Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, Mean reversion models with ensemble interaction together with Markov regime switching models are proposed for that purpose.

Comparison of Different Concentrated Solar Power Collector Designs and Development of a Linear Fresnel Solar Collector Model

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is a renewable energy technology, which could contribute to overcoming global problems related to pollution emissions and increasing energy demand. CSP utilizes solar irradiation, which is a variable source of energy. In order to utilize CSP technology in energy production and reliably operate a solar field including thermal energy storage system, dynamic simulation tools are needed in order to study the dynamics of the solar field, to optimize production and develop control systems. The object of this Master’s Thesis is to compare different concentrated solar power technologies and configure a dynamic solar field model of one selected CSP field design in the dynamic simulation program Apros, owned by VTT and Fortum. The configured model is based on German Novatec Solar’s linear Fresnel reflector design. Solar collector components including dimensions and performance calculation were developed, as well as a simple solar field control system. The preliminary simulation results of two simulation cases under clear sky conditions were good; the desired and stable superheated steam conditions were maintained in both cases, while, as expected, the amount of steam produced was reduced in the case having lower irradiation conditions. As a result of the model development process, it can be concluded, that the configured model is working successfully and that Apros is a very capable and flexible tool for configuring new solar field models and control systems and simulating solar field dynamic behaviour.

Long-term fertilizer field trials: comparison of three mathematical response models

Selostus: Lannoituksen pitkäaikaiset kenttäkokeet: kolmen matemaattisen mallin vertailu

Stochastic particle models: mean reversion and burgers dynamics. An application to commodity markets

The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic model for commodity markets linked with the Burgers equation from fluid dynamics. We construct a stochastic particles method for commodity markets, in which particles represent market participants. A discontinuity in the model is included through an interacting kernel equal to the Heaviside function and its link with the Burgers equation is given. The Burgers equation and the connection of this model with stochastic differential equations are also studied. Further, based on the law of large numbers, we prove the convergence, for large N, of a system of stochastic differential equations describing the evolution of the prices of N traders to a deterministic partial differential equation of Burgers type. Numerical experiments highlight the success of the new proposal in modeling some commodity markets, and this is confirmed by the ability of the model to reproduce price spikes when their effects occur in a sufficiently long period of time.

Numerical and ExperimentalModelling of Gas Flow and Heat Transfer in the Air Gap of An Electric Machine

This work deals with the cooling of high-speed electric machines, such as motors and generators, through an air gap. It consists of numerical and experimental modelling of gas flow and heat transfer in an annular channel. Velocity and temperature profiles are modelled in the air gap of a high-speed testmachine. Local and mean heat transfer coefficients and total friction coefficients are attained for a smooth rotor-stator combination at a large velocity range. The aim is to solve the heat transfer numerically and experimentally. The FINFLO software, developed at Helsinki University of Technology, has been used in the flow solution, and the commercial IGG and Field view programs for the grid generation and post processing. The annular channel is discretized as a sector mesh. Calculation is performed with constant mass flow rate on six rotational speeds. The effect of turbulence is calculated using three turbulence models. The friction coefficient and velocity factor are attained via total friction power. The first part of experimental section consists of finding the proper sensors and calibrating them in a straight pipe. After preliminary tests, a RdF-sensor is glued on the walls of stator and rotor surfaces. Telemetry is needed to be able to measure the heat transfer coefficients at the rotor. The mean heat transfer coefficients are measured in a test machine on four cooling air mass flow rates at a wide Couette Reynolds number range. The calculated values concerning the friction and heat transfer coefficients are compared with measured and semi-empirical data. Heat is transferred from the hotter stator and rotor surfaces to the coolerair flow in the air gap, not from the rotor to the stator via the air gap, althought the stator temperature is lower than the rotor temperature. The calculatedfriction coefficients fits well with the semi-empirical equations and precedingmeasurements. On constant mass flow rate the rotor heat transfer coefficient attains a saturation point at a higher rotational speed, while the heat transfer coefficient of the stator grows uniformly. The magnitudes of the heat transfer coefficients are almost constant with different turbulence models. The calibrationof sensors in a straight pipe is only an advisory step in the selection process. Telemetry is tested in the pipe conditions and compared to the same measurements with a plain sensor. The magnitudes of the measured data and the data from the semi-empirical equation are higher for the heat transfer coefficients than thenumerical data considered on the velocity range. Friction and heat transfer coefficients are presented in a large velocity range in the report. The goals are reached acceptably using numerical and experimental research. The next challenge is to achieve results for grooved stator-rotor combinations. The work contains also results for an air gap with a grooved stator with 36 slots. The velocity field by the numerical method does not match in every respect the estimated flow mode. The absence of secondary Taylor vortices is evident when using time averagednumerical simulation.

Novel Robot Solutions for Carrying out Field Joint Welding and Machining in the Assembly of the Vacuum Vessel of ITER

It is necessary to use highly specialized robots in ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) both in the manufacturing and maintenance of the reactor due to a demanding environment. The sectors of the ITER vacuum vessel (VV) require more stringent tolerances than normally expected for the size of the structure involved. VV consists of nine sectors that are to be welded together. The vacuum vessel has a toroidal chamber structure. The task of the designed robot is to carry the welding apparatus along a path with a stringent tolerance during the assembly operation. In addition to the initial vacuum vessel assembly, after a limited running period, sectors need to be replaced for repair. Mechanisms with closed-loop kinematic chains are used in the design of robots in this work. One version is a purely parallel manipulator and another is a hybrid manipulator where the parallel and serial structures are combined. Traditional industrial robots that generally have the links actuated in series are inherently not very rigid and have poor dynamic performance in high speed and high dynamic loading conditions. Compared with open chain manipulators, parallel manipulators have high stiffness, high accuracy and a high force/torque capacity in a reduced workspace. Parallel manipulators have a mechanical architecture where all of the links are connected to the base and to the end-effector of the robot. The purpose of this thesis is to develop special parallel robots for the assembly, machining and repairing of the VV of the ITER. The process of the assembly and machining of the vacuum vessel needs a special robot. By studying the structure of the vacuum vessel, two novel parallel robots were designed and built; they have six and ten degrees of freedom driven by hydraulic cylinders and electrical servo motors. Kinematic models for the proposed robots were defined and two prototypes built. Experiments for machine cutting and laser welding with the 6-DOF robot were carried out. It was demonstrated that the parallel robots are capable of holding all necessary machining tools and welding end-effectors in all positions accurately and stably inside the vacuum vessel sector. The kinematic models appeared to be complex especially in the case of the 10-DOF robot because of its redundant structure. Multibody dynamics simulations were carried out, ensuring sufficient stiffness during the robot motion. The entire design and testing processes of the robots appeared to be complex tasks due to the high specialization of the manufacturing technology needed in the ITER reactor, while the results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed solutions quite well. The results offer not only devices but also a methodology for the assembly and repair of ITER by means of parallel robots.

Modelling mean above and below ground litter production based on yield tables

Selective papers of the workshop on "Development of models and forest soil surveys for monitoring of soil carbon", Koli, Finland, April 5-9 2006.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Numerical Investigation of Flow Past a Circular Cylinder and in a Staggered Tube Bundle Using Various Turbulence Models

Transitional flow past a three-dimensional circular cylinder is a widely studied phenomenon since this problem is of interest with respect to many technical applications. In the present work, the numerical simulation of flow past a circular cylinder, performed by using a commercial CFD code (ANSYS Fluent 12.1) with large eddy simulation (LES) and RANS (κ - ε and Shear-Stress Transport (SST) κ - ω! model) approaches. The turbulent flow for ReD = 1000 & 3900 is simulated to investigate the force coefficient, Strouhal number, flow separation angle, pressure distribution on cylinder and the complex three dimensional vortex shedding of the cylinder wake region. The numerical results extracted from these simulations have good agreement with the experimental data (Zdravkovich, 1997). Moreover, grid refinement and time-step influence have been examined. Numerical calculations of turbulent cross-flow in a staggered tube bundle continues to attract interest due to its importance in the engineering application as well as the fact that this complex flow represents a challenging problem for CFD. In the present work a time dependent simulation using κ – ε, κ - ω! and SST models are performed in two dimensional for a subcritical flow through a staggered tube bundle. The predicted turbulence statistics (mean and r.m.s velocities) have good agreement with the experimental data (S. Balabani, 1996). Turbulent quantities such as turbulent kinetic energy and dissipation rate are predicted using RANS models and compared with each other. The sensitivity of grid and time-step size have been analyzed. Model constants sensitivity study have been carried out by adopting κ – ε model. It has been observed that model constants are very sensitive to turbulence statistics and turbulent quantities.

Studies on the Multifaceted Interaction of Atoms and an Electromagnetic Field

In this Thesis the interaction of an electromagnetic field and matter is studied from various aspects in the general framework of cold atoms. Our subjects cover a wide spectrum of phenomena ranging from semiclassical few-level models to fully quantum mechanical interaction with structured reservoirs leading to non-Markovian open quantum system dynamics. Within closed quantum systems, we propose a selective method to manipulate the motional state of atoms in a time-dependent double-well potential and interpret the method in terms of adiabatic processes. Also, we derive a simple wave-packet model, based on distributions of generalized eigenstates, explaining the finite visibility of interference in overlapping continuous-wave atom lasers. In the context of open quantum systems, we develop an unraveling of non-Markovian dynamics in terms of piecewise deterministic quantum jump processes confined in the Hilbert space of the reduced system - the non-Markovian quantum jump method. As examples, we apply it for simple 2- and 3-level systems interacting with a structured reservoir. Also, in the context of ion-cavity QED we study the entanglement generation based on collective Dicke modes in experimentally realistic conditions including photonic losses and an atomic spontaneous decay.

Some advances in mathematical models for preference relations

Preference relations, and their modeling, have played a crucial role in both social sciences and applied mathematics. A special category of preference relations is represented by cardinal preference relations, which are nothing other than relations which can also take into account the degree of relation. Preference relations play a pivotal role in most of multi criteria decision making methods and in the operational research. This thesis aims at showing some recent advances in their methodology. Actually, there are a number of open issues in this field and the contributions presented in this thesis can be grouped accordingly. The first issue regards the estimation of a weight vector given a preference relation. A new and efficient algorithm for estimating the priority vector of a reciprocal relation, i.e. a special type of preference relation, is going to be presented. The same section contains the proof that twenty methods already proposed in literature lead to unsatisfactory results as they employ a conflicting constraint in their optimization model. The second area of interest concerns consistency evaluation and it is possibly the kernel of the thesis. This thesis contains the proofs that some indices are equivalent and that therefore, some seemingly different formulae, end up leading to the very same result. Moreover, some numerical simulations are presented. The section ends with some consideration of a new method for fairly evaluating consistency. The third matter regards incomplete relations and how to estimate missing comparisons. This section reports a numerical study of the methods already proposed in literature and analyzes their behavior in different situations. The fourth, and last, topic, proposes a way to deal with group decision making by means of connecting preference relations with social network analysis.

Methods for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology : applications to the modelling of the heat shock response and the self-assembly of intermediate filaments

Systems biology is a new, emerging and rapidly developing, multidisciplinary research field that aims to study biochemical and biological systems from a holistic perspective, with the goal of providing a comprehensive, system- level understanding of cellular behaviour. In this way, it addresses one of the greatest challenges faced by contemporary biology, which is to compre- hend the function of complex biological systems. Systems biology combines various methods that originate from scientific disciplines such as molecu- lar biology, chemistry, engineering sciences, mathematics, computer science and systems theory. Systems biology, unlike “traditional” biology, focuses on high-level concepts such as: network, component, robustness, efficiency, control, regulation, hierarchical design, synchronization, concurrency, and many others. The very terminology of systems biology is “foreign” to “tra- ditional” biology, marks its drastic shift in the research paradigm and it indicates close linkage of systems biology to computer science. One of the basic tools utilized in systems biology is the mathematical modelling of life processes tightly linked to experimental practice. The stud- ies contained in this thesis revolve around a number of challenges commonly encountered in the computational modelling in systems biology. The re- search comprises of the development and application of a broad range of methods originating in the fields of computer science and mathematics for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology. In particular, the performed research is setup in the context of two biolog- ical phenomena chosen as modelling case studies: 1) the eukaryotic heat shock response and 2) the in vitro self-assembly of intermediate filaments, one of the main constituents of the cytoskeleton. The range of presented approaches spans from heuristic, through numerical and statistical to ana- lytical methods applied in the effort to formally describe and analyse the two biological processes. We notice however, that although applied to cer- tain case studies, the presented methods are not limited to them and can be utilized in the analysis of other biological mechanisms as well as com- plex systems in general. The full range of developed and applied modelling techniques as well as model analysis methodologies constitutes a rich mod- elling framework. Moreover, the presentation of the developed methods, their application to the two case studies and the discussions concerning their potentials and limitations point to the difficulties and challenges one encounters in computational modelling of biological systems. The problems of model identifiability, model comparison, model refinement, model inte- gration and extension, choice of the proper modelling framework and level of abstraction, or the choice of the proper scope of the model run through this thesis.

Of milquetoasts and daredevils : personalities in female eiders

Traditionally biologists have often considered individual differences in behaviour or physiology as a nuisance when investigating a population of individuals. These differences have mostly been dismissed as measurement errors or as non-adaptive variation around an adaptive population mean. Recent research, however, challenges this view. While long acknowledged in human personality studies, the importance of individual variation has recently entered into ecological and evolutionary studies in the form of animal personality. The concept of animal personality focuses on consistent differences within and between individuals in behavioural and physiological traits across time and contexts and its ecological and evolutionary consequences. Nevertheless, a satisfactory explanation for the existence of personality is still lacking. Although there is a growing number of explanatory theoretical models, there is still a lack of empirical studies on wild populations showing how traditional life-history tradeoffs can explain the maintenance of variation in personality traits. In this thesis, I first investigate the validity of variation in allostatic load or baseline corticosterone (CORT) concentrations as a measure for differences in individual quality. The association between CORT and quality has recently been summarised under the “CORT-fitness hypothesis”, which states that a general negative relationship between baseline CORT and fitness exists. I then continue to apply the concept of animal personality to depict how the life-history trade-off between survival and fecundity is mediated in incubating female eiders (Somateria mollissima), thereby maintaining variation in behaviour and physiology. To this end, I investigated breeding female eiders from a wild population that breeds in the archipelago around Tvärminne Zoological Station, SW Finland. The field data used was collected from 2008 to 2012. The overall aim of the thesis was to show how differences in personality and stress responsiveness are linked to a life-history context. In the four chapters I examine how the life-history trade-off between survival and fecundity could be resolved depending on consistent individual differences in escape behaviour, stress physiology, individual quality and nest-site selection. First, I corroborated the validity of the “CORT-fitness hypothesis”, by showing that reproductive success is generally negatively correlated with serum and faecal baseline CORT levels. The association between individual quality and baseline CORT is, however, context dependent. Poor body condition was associated with elevated serum baseline CORT only in older breeders, while a larger reproductive investment (clutch mass) was associated with elevated serum baseline CORT among females breeding late in the season. Interestingly, good body condition was associated with elevated faecal baseline CORT levels in late breeders. High faecal baseline CORT levels were positively related to high baseline body temperature, and breeders in poor condition showed an elevated baseline body temperature, but only on open islands. The relationship between stress physiology and individual quality is modulated by breeding experience and breeding phenology. Consequently, the context dependency highlights that this relationship has to be interpreted cautiously. Additionally, I verified if stress responsiveness is related to risk-taking behaviour. Females who took fewer risks (longer flight initiation distance) showed a stronger stress response (measured as an increase in CORT concentration after capture and handling of the bird). However, this association was modulated by breeding experience and body condition, with young breeders and those in poor body condition showing the strongest relationship between risktaking and stress responsiveness. Shy females (longer flight initiation distance) also incubated their clutch for a shorter time. Additionally, I demonstrated that stress responsiveness and predation risk interact with maternal investment and reproductive success. Under high risk of predation, females that incubated a larger clutch showed a stronger stress response. Surprisingly, these females also exhibited higher reproductive success than females with a weaker stress response. Again, these context dependent results suggest that the relationship between stress responsiveness and risk-taking behaviour should not be studied in isolation from individual quality and that stress responsiveness may show adaptive plasticity when individuals are exposed to different predation regimes. Finally, female risk-taking behaviour and stress coping styles were also related to nest-site choice. Less stress responsive females more frequently occupied nests with greater coverage that were farther away from the shoreline. Females nesting in nests with medium cover and farther from the shoreline had higher reproductive success. These results suggest that different personality types are distributed non-randomly in space. In this thesis I was able to demonstrate that personalities and stress coping strategies are persistent individual characteristics, which express measurable effects on fitness. This suggests that those traits are exposed to natural selection and thereby can evolve. Furthermore, individual variation in personality and stress coping strategy is linked to the alternative ways in which animals resolve essential life-history trade-offs.