Using time and stochastic models for software reliability forecasting and analysis

Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.

Demographic Modelling of Human Population Growth

This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.

An EDTA-β-cyclodextrin adsorbent for the adsorption of rare earth elements and its application in preconcentration of ultratrace rare earth elements from seawater

The objectives of this work were synthesizing an EDTA-β-CD adsorbent and investigating its adsorption potential and applications in preconcentration of REEs from aqueous phase. The adsorption capacity of EDTA-β-CD was investigated. The adsorption studies were performed by batch techniques both in one- and multi-component systems. The effects of pH, contact time and initial concentration were evaluated. The analytical detection methods and characterization methods were presented. EDTA-β-CD adsorbent was synthesized successfully with high EDTA coverage. The maximum REEs uptake was 0.310 mmol g-1 for La(III), 0.337 mmol g-1 for Ce(III) and 0.353 mmol g-1 for Eu(III), respectively. The kinetics of REEs onto EDTA-β-CD fitted well to pseudo-second-order model and the adsorption rate was affected by intra-particle diffusion. The experimental data of one component studies fitted to Langmuir isotherm model indicating the homogeneous surface of the adsorbent. The extended Sips model was applicable for the isotherm studies in three-component system. The electrostatic interaction, chelation and complexation were all involved in the adsorption mechanism. The preconcentration of RE ions and regeneration of EDTA-β-CD were successful. Overall, EDTA-β-CD is an effective adsorbent in adsorption and preconcentration of REEs.

Lectio praecursoria : Systems between information and knowledge : in a memory management model of an extended enterprise

VTT Jouni Meriluodon valtio-opin alaan kuuluva väitöskirja Systems between information and knowledge : in a memory management model of an extended enterprise tarkastettiin 21.6.2011 Helsingin yliopistossa.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.

An Experimental Model of Prostatic Inflammation for Drug Discovery

There is increasing evidence to support a significant role for chronic non-bacterial, prostatic inflammation in the development of human voiding dysfunction and prostate cancer. Their increased prevalence with age suggests that the decrease of testosterone concentration and/or the ratio of testosterone-to-estradiol in serum may have a role in their development. The main objective of this study was to explore prostatic inflammation and its relationship with voiding dysfunction and prostate carcinogenesis by developing an experimental model. A novel selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM), fispemifene, was tested for the prevention and treatment of prostatic inflammation in this model. Combined treatment of adult Noble rats with testosterone and estradiol for 3 to 6 weeks induced gradually developing prostatic inflammation in the dorsolateral prostatic lobes. Inflammatory cells, mainly T-lymphocytes, were first seen around capillaries. Thereafter, the lymphocytes migrated into the stroma and into periglandular space. When the treatment time was extended to 13 weeks, the number of inflamed acini increased. Urodynamical recordings indicated voiding dysfunction. When the animals had an above normal testosterone and estradiol concentrations but still had a decreased testosterone-to-estradiol ratio in serum, they developed obstructive voiding. Furthermore, they developed precancerous lesions and prostate cancers in the ducts of the dorsolateral prostatic lobes. Interestingly, inflammatory infiltrates were observed adjacent to precancerous lesions but not in the adjacency of adenocarcinomas suggesting that inflammation has a role in the early stages of prostate carcinogenesis. Fispemifene, a novel SERM tested in this experimental model, showed anti-inflammatory action by attenuating the number of inflamed acini in the dorsolateral prostate. Fispemifene exhibited also antiestrogenic properties by decreasing expression of estrogen-induced biomarkers in the acinar epithelium. These findings suggest that SERMs could be considered as a new therapeutic possibility in the prevention and in the treatment of chronic prostatic inflammation

Licensing Model Development for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) - Focusing on the Finnish Regulatory Framework

Recently, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) have attracted increased public discussion. While large nuclear power plant new build projects are facing challenges, the focus of attention is turning to small modular reactors. One particular project challenge arises in the area of nuclear licensing, which plays a significant role in new build projects affecting their quality as well as costs and schedules. This dissertation - positioned in the field of nuclear engineering but also with a significant section in the field of systems engineering - examines the nuclear licensing processes and their suitability for the characteristics of SMRs. The study investigates the licensing processes in selected countries, as well as other safety critical industry fields. Viewing the licensing processes and their separate licensing steps in terms of SMRs, the study adopts two different analysis theories for review and comparison. The primary data consists of a literature review, semi-structured interviews, and questionnaire responses concerning licensing processes and practices. The result of the study is a recommendation for a new, optimized licensing process for SMRs. The most important SMR-specific feature, in terms of licensing, is the modularity of the design. Here the modularity indicates multi-module SMR designs, which creates new challenges in the licensing process. As this study focuses on Finland, the main features of the new licensing process are adapted to the current Finnish licensing process, aiming to achieve the main benefits with minimal modifications to the current process. The application of the new licensing process is developed using Systems Engineering, Requirements Management, and Project Management practices and tools. Nuclear licensing includes a large amount of data and documentation which needs to be managed in a suitable manner throughout the new build project and then during the whole life cycle of the nuclear power plant. To enable a smooth licensing process and therefore ensure the success of the new build nuclear power plant project, management processes and practices play a significant role. This study contributes to the theoretical understanding of how licensing processes are structured and how they are put into action in practice. The findings clarify the suitability of different licensing processes and their selected licensing steps for SMR licensing. The results combine the most suitable licensing steps into a new licensing process for SMRs. The results are also extended to the concept of licensing management practices and tools.

Identification of research trends in the field of separation processes. Application of epidemiological model, citation analysis, text mining, and technical analysis of the financial markets

Choice of industrial development options and the relevant allocation of the research funds become more and more difficult because of the increasing R&D costs and pressure for shorter development period. Forecast of the research progress is based on the analysis of the publications activity in the field of interest as well as on the dynamics of its change. Moreover, allocation of funds is hindered by exponential growth in the number of publications and patents. Thematic clusters become more and more difficult to identify, and their evolution hard to follow. The existing approaches of research field structuring and identification of its development are very limited. They do not identify the thematic clusters with adequate precision while the identified trends are often ambiguous. Therefore, there is a clear need to develop methods and tools, which are able to identify developing fields of research. The main objective of this Thesis is to develop tools and methods helping in the identification of the promising research topics in the field of separation processes. Two structuring methods as well as three approaches for identification of the development trends have been proposed. The proposed methods have been applied to the analysis of the research on distillation and filtration. The results show that the developed methods are universal and could be used to study of the various fields of research. The identified thematic clusters and the forecasted trends of their development have been confirmed in almost all tested cases. It proves the universality of the proposed methods. The results allow for identification of the fast-growing scientific fields as well as the topics characterized by stagnant or diminishing research activity.

Extended hydrogen photoproduction by nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria

Cyanobacteria are the only prokaryotic organisms performing oxygenic photosynthesis. They comprise a diverse and versatile group of organisms in aquatic and terrestrial environments. Increasing genomic and proteomic data launches wide possibilities for their employment in various biotechnical applications. For example, cyanobacteria can use solar energy to produce H2. There are three different enzymes that are directly involved in cyanobacterial H2 metabolism: nitrogenase (nif) which produces hydrogen as a byproduct in nitrogen fixation; bidirectional hydrogenase (hox) which functions both in uptake and in production of H2; and uptake hydrogenase (hup) which recycles the H2 produced by nitrogenase back for the utilization of the cell. Cyanobacterial strains from University of Helsinki Cyanobacteria Collection (UHCC), isolated from the Baltic Sea and Finnish lakes were screened for efficient H2 producers. Screening about 400 strains revealed several promising candidates producing similar amounts of H2 (during light) as the ΔhupL mutant of Anabaena PCC 7120, which is specifically engineered to produce higher amounts of H2 by the interruption of uptake hydrogenase. The optimal environmental conditions for H2 photoproduction were significantly different between various cyanobacterial strains. All suitable strains revealed during screening were N2-fixing, filamentous and heterocystous. The top ten H2 producers were characterized for the presence and activity of the enzymes involved in H2 metabolism. They all possess the genes encoding the conventional nitrogenase (nifHDK1). However, the high H2 photoproduction rates of these strains were shown not to be directly associated with the maximum capacities of highly active nitrogenase or bidirectional hydrogenase. Most of the good producers possessed a highly active uptake hydrogenase, which has been considered as an obstacle for efficient H2 production. Among the newly revealed best H2 producing strains, Calothrix 336/3 was chosen for further, detailed characterization. Comparative analysis of the structure of the nif and hup operons encoding the nitrogenase and uptake hydrogenase enzymes respectively showed minor differences between Calothrix 336/3 and other N2-fixing model cyanobacteria. Calothrix 336/3 is a filamentous, N2-fixing cyanobacterium with ellipsoidal, terminal heterocysts. A common feature of Calothrix 336/3 is that the cells readily adhere to substrates. To make use of this feature, and to additionally improve H2 photoproduction capacity of the Calothrix 336/3 strain, an immobilization technique was applied. The effects of immobilization within thin alginate films were evaluated by examining the photoproduction of H2 of immobilized Calothrix 336/3 in comparison to model strains, the Anabaena PCC 7120 and its ΔhupL mutant. In order to achieve optimal H2 photoproduction, cells were kept under nitrogen starved conditions (Ar atmosphere) to ensure the selective function of nitrogenase in reducing protons to H2. For extended H2 photoproduction, cells require CO2 for maintenance of photosynthetic activity and recovery cycles to fix N2. Application of regular H2 production and recovery cycles, Ar or air atmospheres respectively, resulted in prolongation of H2 photoproduction in both Calothrix 336/3 and the ΔhupL mutant of Anabaena PCC 7120. However, recovery cycles, consisting of air supplemented with CO2, induced a strong C/N unbalance in the ΔhupL mutant leading to a decrease in photosynthetic activity, although total H2 yield was still higher compared to the wild-type strain. My findings provide information about the diversity of cyanobacterial H2 capacities and mechanisms and provide knowledge of the possibilities of further enhancing cyanobacterial H2 production.