From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Understanding organizational wrongdoing

The topic is white collar crime in its organizational form. The research question is why otherwise law-abiding people engage in wrongful behavior within legitimate organizations and what kinds of dynamics are involved in wrongful organizational processes. This is a theoretical inquiry the method of which is to bring together relevant literature on organizational behavior regardless of the branch of science. In addition to criminological and sociolegal writings, I mostly refer to works of social psychology and organization theory. At first, I discuss the terminological multiplicity related to organizational white collar crime. In conclusion from a critical analysis of the dominant terms and definitions, I argue for the concept of organizational wrongdoing. The approach of organizational wrongdoing captures unethical, illegal and criminal organizational behavior. Thus, it is not retricted by legislative categories but ethical reasoning. The approach aims at grasping a behavioral entity, and state law crimes do not constitute an ontology of behavior. In order to understand organizational wrongdoing, the dominant criminological theories applied to white collar crime are discussed. To a surprisingly large extent, they lack a sophisticated organizational perspective and do not offer viable frameworks for building a plausible theory of organizational white collar crime. In order to fill the gap, I incorporate the social psychological dynamics of organizational behavior and present several findings on collective behavior that criminological theorization must come to terms with. ------ This publication has been first presented and accepted as a master's thesis at the Faculty of Law, University of Turku. It has been published on the series: Criminal Law and Judicial Procedure, Series B: 15, in print format. The publication was digitized in 2015 and published online.