Variation in forest fire ignition probability in Finland

Abstract

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Clean development mechanism and joint implementation in China and Russia as related to industrial energy projects

Being highly discussed the problem of climate change and global warming has been keeping importance for several of decades. As a response to the world’s need in solution for climate change disasters, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted in 1992 and supplemented with the Kyoto protocol in 1997. This work is aimed to give better understanding of the Convention, Kyoto Protocol with its mechanisms and their function, related to energy projects in such case countries, as Russia and China, in order to assist evaluation of projects cost-effectiveness. It provides basic information about the Convention and the Protocol with their regulations, overview of present situation and future post-Kyoto forecasts, while the most attention is concentrated on the clean development mechanism and joint implementation step-by-step project cycles and specific regulations in given countries. The current study disclosed that CDM and JI project cycles are resulting in a complicated process. By the moment it requires step-by-step following of a number of methodologies, spending time and finance to particular project development. Uncertainties about post-Kyoto period bring additional risk to the projects and complicate any business decision concerning Kyoto Protocol.

Novel Robot Solutions for Carrying out Field Joint Welding and Machining in the Assembly of the Vacuum Vessel of ITER

It is necessary to use highly specialized robots in ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) both in the manufacturing and maintenance of the reactor due to a demanding environment. The sectors of the ITER vacuum vessel (VV) require more stringent tolerances than normally expected for the size of the structure involved. VV consists of nine sectors that are to be welded together. The vacuum vessel has a toroidal chamber structure. The task of the designed robot is to carry the welding apparatus along a path with a stringent tolerance during the assembly operation. In addition to the initial vacuum vessel assembly, after a limited running period, sectors need to be replaced for repair. Mechanisms with closed-loop kinematic chains are used in the design of robots in this work. One version is a purely parallel manipulator and another is a hybrid manipulator where the parallel and serial structures are combined. Traditional industrial robots that generally have the links actuated in series are inherently not very rigid and have poor dynamic performance in high speed and high dynamic loading conditions. Compared with open chain manipulators, parallel manipulators have high stiffness, high accuracy and a high force/torque capacity in a reduced workspace. Parallel manipulators have a mechanical architecture where all of the links are connected to the base and to the end-effector of the robot. The purpose of this thesis is to develop special parallel robots for the assembly, machining and repairing of the VV of the ITER. The process of the assembly and machining of the vacuum vessel needs a special robot. By studying the structure of the vacuum vessel, two novel parallel robots were designed and built; they have six and ten degrees of freedom driven by hydraulic cylinders and electrical servo motors. Kinematic models for the proposed robots were defined and two prototypes built. Experiments for machine cutting and laser welding with the 6-DOF robot were carried out. It was demonstrated that the parallel robots are capable of holding all necessary machining tools and welding end-effectors in all positions accurately and stably inside the vacuum vessel sector. The kinematic models appeared to be complex especially in the case of the 10-DOF robot because of its redundant structure. Multibody dynamics simulations were carried out, ensuring sufficient stiffness during the robot motion. The entire design and testing processes of the robots appeared to be complex tasks due to the high specialization of the manufacturing technology needed in the ITER reactor, while the results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed solutions quite well. The results offer not only devices but also a methodology for the assembly and repair of ITER by means of parallel robots.

The Methods of Possible Joint Treatment of Manure and Sewage Sludge in the Leningrad Region

The nutrient load to the Gulf of Finland has started to increase as a result of the strong economic recovery in agriculture and livestock farming in the Leningrad region. Also sludge produced from municipal wastewater treatment plant of the Leningrad region causes the great impact on the environment, but still the main options for its treatment is disposal on the sludge beds or Landfills. The aim of this study was to evaluate the implementation of possible joint treatment methods of manure form livestock and poultry enterprises and sewage sludge produced from municipal wastewater treatment plants in the Leningrad region. The study is based on published data. The most attention was put on the anaerobic digestion and incineration methods. The manure and sewage sludge generation for the whole Leningrad region and energy potential produced from their treatment were estimated. The calculations showed that total amount of sewage sludge generation is 1 348 000 t/a calculated on wet matter and manure generation is 3 445 000 t/a calculated on wet matter. The potential heat release from anaerobic digestion process and incineration process is 4 880 000 GJ/a and 5 950 000 GJ/a, respectively. Furthermore, the work gives the overview of the general Russian and Finnish legislation concerning manure and sewage sludge treatment. In the Gatchina district it was chosen the WWTP and livestock and poultry enterprises for evaluation of the centralized treatment plant implementation based on anaerobic digestion and incineration methods. The electricity and heat power of plant based on biogas combustion process is 4.3 MW and 7.8 MW, respectively. The electricity and heat power of plant based on manure and sewage sludge incineration process is 3.0 MW and 6.1 MW, respectively.

Developing co-operation of business units – exploring synergies and a joint business model

The purpose of this study was to develop co-operation between business units of the company operating in graphic industry. The development was done by searching synergy opportunities between these business units. The final aim was to form a business model, which is based on co-operation of these business units.The literature review of this thesis examines synergies and especially the process concerning the search and implementation of synergies. Also the concept of business model and its components are examined. The research was done by using qualitative research method. The main data acquiring method to the empirical part was theme interviews. The data was analyzed using thematisation and content analysis.The results of the study include seven identified possible synergies and a business model, which is based on the co-operation of the business units. The synergy opportunities are evaluated and the implementation order of the synergies is suggested. The presented synergies create the base for the proposed business model.

Viipurinlahden taistelu 1944 joint-operaation näkökulmasta tarkasteltuna

Viipurinlahden taistelun kesällä 1944 on monesti esitetty olevan ensimmäinen suomalainen joint- eli yhteisoperaatio. Työ käsittelee Viipurinlahden taistelua nykyaikaisen jointoperaation periaatteiden näkökulmasta. Viipurinlahden taistelussa toimi kaikkien kolmen puolustushaaran joukkoja pienellä taistelualueella. Joint-käsitettä tarkastellaan yhdysvaltalaisten ohjesääntöjen ja suomalaisten näkemysten kautta. Yhdysvallat on yksi maailman johtavin joint-doktriinin käyttäjä. Tämän vuoksi joint-käsitettä tarkastellaan työssä pääasiassa Yhdysvaltojen ohjesääntöjen ja niihin perustuvan tiedon kautta.

Design of Instrument for Knee Joint Kinematics Measurement

This thesis describes the process of design and modeling of instrument for knee joint kinematics measurement that can work for both in-vivo and in-vitro subjects. It is designed to be compatible with imaging machine in a sagittal plane. Due to the invasiveness of the imaging machine, the instrument is designed to be able to function independently. The flexibility of this instrument allows to measure anthropometrically different subject. Among the sixth degree of freedom of a knee, three rotational and one translational degree of freedom can be measured for both type of subject. The translational, proximal-distal, motion is stimulated by external force directly applied along its axis. These angular and linear displacements are measured by magnetic sensors and high precision potentiometers respectively

IT Investment Portfolio Management Over Joint Ventures: Case Study in a Multinational Oil & Gas Company

With information technology (IT) playing an increasing important role in driving the business, the value of IT investment is often challenged because not all of those investment decisions are made in a reasonable way or aligned with business strategies. IT investment portfolio management (PfM) is an effective way to prioritize and select the right IT projects to invest in, by taking all the project proposals into consideration as a whole, based on their business value, risks, costs, and interrelationships. There are different decision models to prioritise projects, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most commonly-used methods and is discussed in this master thesis. At the same time, there are IT projects on different levels for a multinational company, from global to local. For instance, many of them are probably proposed by joint ventures on local level. In the oil & gas industry, joint ventures are often formed especially in the area of the upstream (exploration & production). How to involve those projects into the IT investment PfM approach of the parent company is a challenge, because the parent company cannot make the decisions on its own. It needs to prioritize all projects in an adequate way, communicate with JVs and influence them. Also, different control levels on JVs need to be considered. This paper hence attempts to introduce a tailored approach of IT investment PfM for a multinational oil & gas company to address the issues around JVs.