Variation in forest fire ignition probability in Finland

Abstract

Propagation of the Ignition Front against Airflow in Packed Beds of Wood Particles

Combustion of wood is increasing because of the needs of decreasing the emissions of carbon dioxide and the amount of waste going to landfills. Wood based fuels are often scattered on a large area. The transport distances should be short enough to prevent too high costs, and so the size of heating and power plants using wood fuels is often rather small. Combustion technologies of small-size units have to be developed to reach efficient and environmentally friendly energy production. Furnaces that use different packed bed combustion or gasification techniques areoften most economic in small-scale energy production. Ignition front propagation rate affects the stability, heat release rate and emissions of packed bed combustion. Ignition front propagation against airflow in packed beds of wood fuels has been studied. The research has been carried out mainly experimentally. Theoretical aspects have been considered to draw conclusions about the experimental results. The effects of airflow rate, moisture content of the fuel, size, shape and density of particles, and porosity of the bed on the propagation rate of the ignition front have been studied. The experiments were carried out in a pot furnace. The fuels used in the experiments were mainly real wood fuels that are often burned in the production of energy. The fuel types were thin wood chips, saw dust, shavings, wood chips, and pellets with different sizes. Also a few mixturesof the above were tested. Increase in the moisture content of the fuel decreases the propagation rates of the ignition front and makes the range of possible airflow rates narrower because of the energy needed for the evaporation of water and the dilution of volatile gases due to evaporated steam. Increase in the airflow rate increases the ignition rate until a maximum rate of propagation is reached after which it decreases. The maximum flame propagation rate is not always reached in stoichiometric combustion conditions. Increase in particle size and density transfers the optimum airflow rate towards fuel lean conditions. Mixing of small and large particles is often advantageous, because small particles make itpossible to reach the maximum ignition rate in fuel rich conditions, and large particles widen the range of possible airflow rates. A correlation was found forthe maximum rate of ignition front propagation in different wood fuels. According to the correlation, the maximum ignition mass flux is increased when the sphericity of the particles and the porosity of the bed are increased and the moisture content of the fuel is decreased. Another fit was found between sphericity and porosity. Increase in sphericity decreases the porosity of the bed. The reasons of the observed results are discussed.

Delay reduction in courts of justice – possibilities and challenges of process improvement in professional public organizations

Delays in the justice system have been undermining the functioning and performance of the court system all over the world for decades. Despite the widespread concern about delays, the solutions have not kept up with the growth of the problem. The delay problem existing in the justice courts processes is a good example of the growing need and pressure in professional public organizations to start improving their business process performance.This study analyses the possibilities and challenges of process improvement in professional public organizations. The study is based on experiences gained in two longitudinal action research improvement projects conducted in two separate Finnish law instances; in the Helsinki Court of Appeal and in the Insurance Court. The thesis has two objectives. First objective is to study what kinds of factors in court system operations cause delays and unmanageable backlogs and how to reduce and prevent delays. Based on the lessons learned from the case projects the objective is to give new insights on the critical factors of process improvement conducted in professional public organizations. Four main areas and factors behind the delay problem is identified: 1) goal setting and performance measurement practices, 2) the process control system, 3) production and capacity planning procedures, and 4) process roles and responsibilities. The appropriate improvement solutions include tools to enhance project planning and scheduling and monitoring the agreed time-frames for different phases of the handling process and pending inventory. The study introduces the identified critical factors in different phases of process improvement work carried out in professional public organizations, the ways the critical factors can be incorporated to the different stages of the projects, and discusses the role of external facilitator in assisting process improvement work and in enhancing ownership towards the solutions and improvement. The study highlights the need to concentrate on the critical factors aiming to get the employees to challenge their existing ways of conducting work, analyze their own processes, and create procedures for diffusing the process improvement culture instead of merely concentrating of finding tools, techniques, and solutions appropriate for applications from the manufacturing sector

Libyan breast cancer: Health services and biology. Diagnosis delay and prognostic value of DNA pploidy, S-phase fraction, and Ki-67 and Bcl-2 immunohistochemistry

The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnosis delay and its impact on the stage of disease. The study also evaluated a nuclear DNA content, immunohistochemical expression of Ki-67 and bcl-2, and the correlation of these biological features with the clinicopathological features and patient outcome. 200 Libyan women, diagnosed during 2008–2009 were interviewed about the period from the first symptoms to the final histological diagnosis of breast cancer. Also retrospective preclinical and clinical data were collected from medical records on a form (questionnaire) in association with the interview. Tumor material of the patients was collected and nuclear DNA content analysed using DNA image cytometry. The expression of Ki-67 and bcl-2 were assessed using immunohistochemistry (IHC). The studies described in this thesis show that the median of diagnosis time for women with breast cancer was 7.5 months and 56% of patients were diagnosed within a period longer than 6 months. Inappropriate reassurance that the lump was benign was an important reason for prolongation of the diagnosis time. Diagnosis delay was also associated with initial breast symptom(s) that did not include a lump, old age, illiteracy, and history of benign fibrocystic disease. The patients who showed diagnosis delay had bigger tumour size (p<0.0001), positive lymph nodes (p<0.0001), and high incidence of late clinical stages (p<0.0001). Biologically, 82.7% of tumors were aneuploid and 17.3% were diploid. The median SPF of tumors was 11% while the median positivity of Ki-67 was 27.5%. High Ki-67 expression was found in 76% of patients, and high SPF values in 56% of patients. Positive bcl-2 expression was found in 62.4% of tumors. 72.2% of the bcl-2 positive samples were ER-positive. Patients who had tumor with DNA aneuploidy, high proliferative activity and negative bcl-2 expression were associated with a high grade of malignancy and short survival. The SPF value is useful cell proliferation marker in assessing prognosis, and the decision cut point of 11% for SPF in the Libyan material was clearly significant (p<0.0001). Bcl-2 is a powerful prognosticator and an independent predictor of breast cancer outcome in the Libyan material (p<0.0001). Libyan breast cancer was investigated in these studies from two different aspects: health services and biology. The results show that diagnosis delay is a very serious problem in Libya and is associated with complex interactions between many factors leading to advanced stages, and potentially to high mortality. Cytometric DNA variables, proliferative markers (Ki-67 and SPF), and oncoprotein bcl-2 negativity reflect the aggressive behavior of Libyan breast cancer and could be used with traditional factors to predict the outcome of individual patients, and to select appropriate therapy.