Demographic Modelling of Human Population Growth

This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.

The many faces of strikes : attitudes towards industrial action by labour, management and human resources

Strikes provide a current, fresh but also a seldom-addressed issue to study from economic sciences perspective. This study provides to filling this research gap by trying to identify attitudes towards strikes that can be found inside organizations. The research problem this study then sets out to answer is: “What kinds of attitudes exist inside organizations towards industrial actions and how attitudes vary between labour, management and human resources?” This study has been planned with a view to test how qualitative attitudinal research, as a method, is suited to studying a phenomenon such as strike. At the heart of this research approach lies an assumption linked to rhetoric social psychology, that attitude is a phenomenon that can be identified in argumentation. For this research 10 semi-structured interviews in 4 organizations were conducted utilizing statements and pictures as stimulants for discussion. The material was transcribed and analysed following the two levels, categorical and interpretive, demanded by the chosen method. Altogether five attitudes were discovered; three of them negative, one indifferent and one positive by nature. The negative attitudes of unfairness, failure and personification towards strikes represented the side of strikes that was perhaps the most anticipated, portraying the contradictions between employees and employer. The attitude of ordinariness, which portrayed indifference, and the positive attitude of change however, were more unanticipated findings. They reflect shared understanding and trust between conflict parties. The utilization of qualitative attitudinal approach to study strikes was deemed successful. The results of this study support prior literature on workplace conflicts for example in regards of the definition of conflict and typologies conflicts. In addition the multifaceted nature of strikes can be perceived as one statement supported by this study. It arises in the nature of the attitudes, the diversity of discussion themes during the interviews as well as in the extent of possible theories to apply.