10 resultados para GLAUCOMA PROBABILITY SCORE

em Doria (National Library of Finland DSpace Services) - National Library of Finland, Finland


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Abstract

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In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

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Construction of multiple sequence alignments is a fundamental task in Bioinformatics. Multiple sequence alignments are used as a prerequisite in many Bioinformatics methods, and subsequently the quality of such methods can be critically dependent on the quality of the alignment. However, automatic construction of a multiple sequence alignment for a set of remotely related sequences does not always provide biologically relevant alignments.Therefore, there is a need for an objective approach for evaluating the quality of automatically aligned sequences. The profile hidden Markov model is a powerful approach in comparative genomics. In the profile hidden Markov model, the symbol probabilities are estimated at each conserved alignment position. This can increase the dimension of parameter space and cause an overfitting problem. These two research problems are both related to conservation. We have developed statistical measures for quantifying the conservation of multiple sequence alignments. Two types of methods are considered, those identifying conserved residues in an alignment position, and those calculating positional conservation scores. The positional conservation score was exploited in a statistical prediction model for assessing the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The residue conservation score was used as part of the emission probability estimation method proposed for profile hidden Markov models. The results of the predicted alignment quality score highly correlated with the correct alignment quality scores, indicating that our method is reliable for assessing the quality of any multiple sequence alignment. The comparison of the emission probability estimation method with the maximum likelihood method showed that the number of estimated parameters in the model was dramatically decreased, while the same level of accuracy was maintained. To conclude, we have shown that conservation can be successfully used in the statistical model for alignment quality assessment and in the estimation of emission probabilities in the profile hidden Markov models.

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Virtual screening is a central technique in drug discovery today. Millions of molecules can be tested in silico with the aim to only select the most promising and test them experimentally. The topic of this thesis is ligand-based virtual screening tools which take existing active molecules as starting point for finding new drug candidates. One goal of this thesis was to build a model that gives the probability that two molecules are biologically similar as function of one or more chemical similarity scores. Another important goal was to evaluate how well different ligand-based virtual screening tools are able to distinguish active molecules from inactives. One more criterion set for the virtual screening tools was their applicability in scaffold-hopping, i.e. finding new active chemotypes. In the first part of the work, a link was defined between the abstract chemical similarity score given by a screening tool and the probability that the two molecules are biologically similar. These results help to decide objectively which virtual screening hits to test experimentally. The work also resulted in a new type of data fusion method when using two or more tools. In the second part, five ligand-based virtual screening tools were evaluated and their performance was found to be generally poor. Three reasons for this were proposed: false negatives in the benchmark sets, active molecules that do not share the binding mode, and activity cliffs. In the third part of the study, a novel visualization and quantification method is presented for evaluation of the scaffold-hopping ability of virtual screening tools.