12 resultados para Epidemics spatial analysis

em Doria (National Library of Finland DSpace Services) - National Library of Finland, Finland


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Finland has large forest fuel resources. However, the use of forest fuels for energy production has been low, except for small-scale use in heating. According to national action plans and programs related to wood energy promotion, the utilization of such resources will be multiplied over the next few years. The most significant part of this growth will be based on the utilization of forest fuels, produced from logging residues of regeneration fellings, in industrial and municipal power and heating plants. Availability of logging residues was analyzed by means of resource and demand approaches in order to identify the most suitable regions with focus on increasing the forest fuel usage. The analysis included availability and supply cost comparisons between power plant sites and resource allocation in a least cost manner, and between a predefined power plant structure under demand and supply constraints. Spatial analysis of worksite factors and regional geographies were carried out using the GIS-model environment via geoprocessing and cartographic modeling tools. According to the results of analyses, the cost competitiveness of forest fuel supply should be improved in order to achieve the designed objectives in the near future. Availability and supply costs of forest fuels varied spatially and were very sensitive to worksite factors and transport distances. According to the site-specific analysis the supply potential between differentlocations can be multifold. However, due to technical and economical reasons ofthe fuel supply and dense power plant infrastructure, the supply potential is limited at plant level. Therefore, the potential and supply cost calculations aredepending on site-specific matters, where regional characteristics of resourcesand infrastructure should be taken into consideration, for example by using a GIS-modeling approach constructed in this study.

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The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

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Wind power is a low-carbon energy production form that reduces the dependence of society on fossil fuels. Finland has adopted wind energy production into its climate change mitigation policy, and that has lead to changes in legislation, guidelines, regional wind power areas allocation and establishing a feed-in tariff. Wind power production has indeed boosted in Finland after two decades of relatively slow growth, for instance from 2010 to 2011 wind energy production increased with 64 %, but there is still a long way to the national goal of 6 TWh by 2020. This thesis introduces a GIS-based decision-support methodology for the preliminary identification of suitable areas for wind energy production including estimation of their level of risk. The goal of this study was to define the least risky places for wind energy development within Kemiönsaari municipality in Southwest Finland. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) has been used for searching suitable wind power areas along with many other location-allocation problems. SMCDA scrutinizes complex ill-structured decision problems in GIS environment using constraints and evaluation criteria, which are aggregated using weighted linear combination (WLC). Weights for the evaluation criteria were acquired using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with nine expert interviews. Subsequently, feasible alternatives were ranked in order to provide a recommendation and finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the determination of recommendation robustness. The first study aim was to scrutinize the suitability and necessity of existing data for this SMCDA study. Most of the available data sets were of sufficient resolution and quality. Input data necessity was evaluated qualitatively for each data set based on e.g. constraint coverage and attribute weights. Attribute quality was estimated mainly qualitatively by attribute comprehensiveness, operationality, measurability, completeness, decomposability, minimality and redundancy. The most significant quality issue was redundancy as interdependencies are not tolerated by WLC and AHP does not include measures to detect them. The third aim was to define the least risky areas for wind power development within the study area. The two highest ranking areas were Nordanå-Lövböle and Påvalsby followed by Helgeboda, Degerdal, Pungböle, Björkboda, and Östanå-Labböle. The fourth aim was to assess the recommendation reliability, and the top-ranking two areas proved robust whereas the other ones were more sensitive.

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The dynamical properties ofshaken granular materials are important in many industrial applications where the shaking is used to mix, segregate and transport them. In this work asystematic, large scale simulation study has been performed to investigate the rheology of dense granular media, in the presence of gas, in a three dimensional vertical cylinder filled with glass balls. The base wall of the cylinder is subjected to sinusoidal oscillation in the vertical direction. The viscoelastic behavior of glass balls during a collision, have been studied experimentally using a modified Newton's Cradle device. By analyzing the results of the measurements, using numerical model based on finite element method, the viscous damping coefficient was determinedfor the glass balls. To obtain detailed information about the interparticle interactions in a shaker, a simplified model for collision between particles of a granular material was proposed. In order to simulate the flow of surrounding gas, a formulation of the equations for fluid flow in a porous medium including particle forces was proposed. These equations are solved with Large Eddy Simulation (LES) technique using a subgrid-model originally proposed for compressible turbulent flows. For a pentagonal prism-shaped container under vertical vibrations, the results show that oscillon type structures were formed. Oscillons are highly localized particle-like excitations of the granular layer. This self-sustaining state was named by analogy with its closest large-scale analogy, the soliton, which was first documented by J.S. Russell in 1834. The results which has been reportedbyBordbar and Zamankhan(2005b)also show that slightly revised fluctuation-dissipation theorem might apply to shaken sand, which appears to be asystem far from equilibrium and could exhibit strong spatial and temporal variations in quantities such as density and local particle velocity. In this light, hydrodynamic type continuum equations were presented for describing the deformation and flow of dense gas-particle mixtures. The constitutive equation used for the stress tensor provides an effective viscosity with a liquid-like character at low shear rates and a gaseous-like behavior at high shear rates. The numerical solutions were obtained for the aforementioned hydrodynamic equations for predicting the flow dynamics ofdense mixture of gas and particles in vertical cylindrical containers. For a heptagonal prism shaped container under vertical vibrations, the model results were found to predict bubbling behavior analogous to those observed experimentally. This bubbling behavior may be explained by the unusual gas pressure distribution found in the bed. In addition, oscillon type structures were found to be formed using a vertically vibrated, pentagonal prism shaped container in agreement with computer simulation results. These observations suggest that the pressure distribution plays a key rolein deformation and flow of dense mixtures of gas and particles under vertical vibrations. The present models provide greater insight toward the explanation of poorly understood hydrodynamic phenomena in the field of granular flows and dense gas-particle mixtures. The models can be generalized to investigate the granular material-container wall interactions which would be an issue of high interests in the industrial applications. By following this approach ideal processing conditions and powder transport can be created in industrial systems.

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Online paper web analysis relies on traversing scanners that criss-cross on top of a rapidly moving paper web. The sensors embedded in the scanners measure many important quality variables of paper, such as basis weight, caliper and porosity. Most of these quantities are varying a lot and the measurements are noisy at many different scales. The zigzagging nature of scanning makes it difficult to separate machine direction (MD) and cross direction (CD) variability from one another. For improving the 2D resolution of the quality variables above, the paper quality control team at the Department of Mathematics and Physics at LUT has implemented efficient Kalman filtering based methods that currently use 2D Fourier series. Fourier series are global and therefore resolve local spatial detail on the paper web rather poorly. The target of the current thesis is to study alternative wavelet based representations as candidates to replace the Fourier basis for a higher resolution spatial reconstruction of these quality variables. The accuracy of wavelet compressed 2D web fields will be compared with corresponding truncated Fourier series based fields.

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Coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) microscopy is rapidly developing into a unique microscopic tool in biophysics, biology and the material sciences. The nonlinear nature of CARS spectroscopy complicates the analysis of the received spectra. There were developed mathematical methods for signal processing and for calculations spectra. Fourier self-deconvolution is a special high pass FFT filter which synthetically narrows the effective trace bandwidth features. As Fourier self-deconvolution can effectively reduce the noise, which may be at a higher spatial frequency than the peaks, without losing peak resolution. The idea of the work is to experiment the possibility of using wavelet decomposition in spectroscopic for background and noise removal, and Fourier transformation for linenarrowing.

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The present study investigates the spatial and spectral discrimination potential for grassland patches in the inner Turku Archipelago using Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery. The spatial discrimination potential was computed through overlay analysis using official grassland parcel data and a hypothetical 30 m resolution satellite image capturing the site. It found that Landsat TM imagery’s ability to retrieve pure or near-pure pixels (90% purity or more) from grassland patches smaller than 1 hectare was limited to 13% success, compared to 52% success when upscaling the resolution to 10 x 10 m pixel size. Additionally, the perimeter/area patch metric is proposed as a predictor for the suitability of the spatial resolution of input imagery. Regression analysis showed that there is a strong negative correlation between a patch’s perimeter/area ratio and its pure pixel potential. The study goes on to characterise the spectral response and discrimination potential for the five main grassland types occurring in the study area: recreational grassland, traditional pasture, modern pasture, fodder production grassland and overgrown grassland. This was done through the construction of spectral response curves, a coincident spectral plot and a contingency matrix as well as by calculating the transformed divergence for the spectral signatures, all based on training samples from the TM imagery. Substantial differences in spectral discrimination potential between imagery from the beginning of the growing season and the middle of summer were found. This is because the spectral responses for these five grassland types converge as the peak of the growing season draws nearer. Recreational grassland shows a consistent discrimination advantage over other grassland types, whereas modern pasture is most easily confused. Traditional pasture land, perhaps the most biologically valuable grassland type, can be spectrally discriminated from other grassland types with satisfactory success rates provided early growing season imagery is used.

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The purpose of this academic economic geographical dissertation is to study and describe how competitiveness in the Finnish paper industry has developed during 2001–2008. During these years, the Finnish paper industry has faced economically challenging times. This dissertation attempts to fill the existing gap between theoretical and empirical discussions concerning economic geographical issues in the paper industry. The main research questions are: How have the supply chain costs and margins developed during 2001–2008? How do sales prices, transportation, and fixed and variable costs correlate with gross margins in a spatial context? The research object for this case study is a typical large Finnish paper mill that exports over 90 % of its production. The economic longitudinal research data were obtained from the case mill’s controlled economic system and, correlation (R2) analysis was used as the main research method. The time series data cover monthly economic and manufacturing observations from the mill from 2001 to 2008. The study reveals the development of prices, costs and transportation in the case mill, and it shows how economic variables correlate with the paper mills’ gross margins in various markets in Europe. The research methods of economic geography offer perspectives that pay attention to the spatial (market) heterogeneity. This type of research has been quite scarce in the research tradition of Finnish economic geography and supply chain management. This case study gives new insight into the research tradition of Finnish economic geography and supply chain management and its applications. As a concrete empirical result, this dissertation states that the competitive advantages of the Finnish paper industry were significantly weakened during 2001–2008 by low paper prices, costly manufacturing and expensive transportation. Statistical analysis expose that, in several important markets, transport costs lower gross margins as much as decreasing paper prices, which was a new finding. Paper companies should continuously pay attention to lowering manufacturing and transporting costs to achieve more profitable economic performance. The location of a mill being far from markets clearly has an economic impact on paper manufacturing, as paper demand is decreasing and oversupply is pressuring paper prices down. Therefore, market and economic forecasting in the paper industry is advantageous at the country and product levels while simultaneously taking into account the economic geographically specific dimensions.

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In 2006 UPM was able to gain a level of social legitimacy that allowed it to carry out one of the largest industrial restructuring programmes in Finnish industrial history, shut down major operations in Finland and still appear to be functioning in the interests of the nation as well as itself. This study considers and examines various contexts of this shutdown with the aim of demonstrating how profoundly mediated such organizational events are though they appear to be produced primarily through strategic company decisions. The study aims to examine the processes of mediation at two levels. At one level, through close analysis of press releases and newspaper reports in local and national newspapers, the study presents a discursive analysis of the Voikkaa case. The discursive analysis focuses on providing historical contexts for understanding why this organizational event was also an occasion for reimagining the past and future of the Finnish nation; spatial contexts for understanding the differing struggles over the meaning of the event nationally and regionally; and the temporal dynamics of the media reports. At another level, the study considers and refines methods for reading and analyzing mediation in organization studies. Bringing together recent research of media text–based legitimation studies, emerging research on organizational memory and organizational death and a Foucaultian analytics of power, this work suggests that organizational research needs to be less concerned with particular typologies and narratives of shutdowns, and more curious about the processes of mediation through which organizational events are imagined and remembered.

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JNK1 is a MAP-kinase that has proven a significant player in the central nervous system. It regulates brain development and the maintenance of dendrites and axons. Several novel phosphorylation targets of JNK1 were identified in a screen performed in the Coffey lab. These proteins were mainly involved in the regulation of neuronal cytoskeleton, influencing the dynamics and stability of microtubules and actin. These structural proteins form the dynamic backbone for the elaborate architecture of the dendritic tree of a neuron. The initiation and branching of the dendrites requires a dynamic interplay between the cytoskeletal building blocks. Both microtubules and actin are decorated by associated proteins which regulate their dynamics. The dendrite-specific, high molecular weight microtubule associated protein 2 (MAP2) is an abundant protein in the brain, the binding of which stabilizes microtubules and influences their bundling. Its expression in non-neuronal cells induces the formation of neurite-like processes from the cell body, and its function is highly regulated by phosphorylation. JNK1 was shown to phosphorylate the proline-rich domain of MAP2 in vivo in a previous study performed in the group. Here we verify three threonine residues (T1619, T1622 and T1625) as JNK1 targets, the phosphorylation of which increases the binding of MAP2 to microtubules. This binding stabilizes the microtubules and increases process formation in non-neuronal cells. Phosphorylation-site mutants were engineered in the lab. The non-phosphorylatable mutant of MAP2 (MAP2- T1619A, T1622A, T1625A) in these residues fails to bind microtubules, while the pseudo-phosphorylated form, MAP2- T1619D, T1622D, Thr1625D, efficiently binds and induces process formation even without the presence of active JNK1. Ectopic expression of the MAP2- T1619D, T1622D, Thr1625D in vivo in mouse brain led to a striking increase in the branching of cortical layer 2/3 (L2/3) pyramidal neurons, compared to MAP2-WT. The dendritic complexity defines the receptive field of a neuron and dictates the output to the postsynaptic cells. Previous studies in the group indicated altered dendrite architecture of the pyramidal neurons in the Jnk1-/- mouse motor cortex. Here, we used Lucifer Yellow loading and Sholl analysis of neurons in order to study the dendritic branching in more detail. We report a striking, opposing effect in the absence of Jnk1 in the cortical layers 2/3 and 5 of the primary motor cortex. The basal dendrites of pyramidal neurons close to the pial surface at L2/3 show a reduced complexity. In contrast, the L5 neurons, which receive massive input from the L2/3 neurons, show greatly increased branching. Another novel substrate identified for JNK1 was MARCKSL1, a protein that regulates actin dynamics. It is highly expressed in neurons, but also in various cancer tissues. Three phosphorylation target residues for JNK1 were identified, and it was demonstrated that their phosphorylation reduces actin turnover and retards migration of these cells. Actin is the main cytoskeletal component in dendritic spines, the site of most excitatory synapses in pyramidal neurons. The density and gross morphology of the Lucifer Yellow filled dendrites were characterized and we show reduced density and altered morphology of spines in the motor cortex and in the hippocampal area CA3. The dynamic dendritic spines are widely considered to function as the cellular correlate during learning. We used a Morris water maze to test spatial memory. Here, the wild-type mice outperformed the knock-out mice during the acquisition phase of the experiment indicating impaired special memory. The L5 pyramidal neurons of the motor cortex project to the spinal cord and regulate the movement of distinct muscle groups. Thus the altered dendrite morphology in the motor cortex was expected to have an effect on the input-output balance in the signaling from the cortex to the lower motor circuits. A battery of behavioral tests were conducted for the wild-type and Jnk1-/- mice, and the knock-outs performed poorly compared to wild-type mice in tests assessing balance and fine motor movements. This study expands our knowledge of JNK1 as an important regulator of the dendritic fields of neurons and their manifestations in behavior.

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Diabetic retinopathy, age-related macular degeneration and glaucoma are the leading causes of blindness worldwide. Automatic methods for diagnosis exist, but their performance is limited by the quality of the data. Spectral retinal images provide a significantly better representation of the colour information than common grayscale or red-green-blue retinal imaging, having the potential to improve the performance of automatic diagnosis methods. This work studies the image processing techniques required for composing spectral retinal images with accurate reflection spectra, including wavelength channel image registration, spectral and spatial calibration, illumination correction, and the estimation of depth information from image disparities. The composition of a spectral retinal image database of patients with diabetic retinopathy is described. The database includes gold standards for a number of pathologies and retinal structures, marked by two expert ophthalmologists. The diagnostic applications of the reflectance spectra are studied using supervised classifiers for lesion detection. In addition, inversion of a model of light transport is used to estimate histological parameters from the reflectance spectra. Experimental results suggest that the methods for composing, calibrating and postprocessing spectral images presented in this work can be used to improve the quality of the spectral data. The experiments on the direct and indirect use of the data show the diagnostic potential of spectral retinal data over standard retinal images. The use of spectral data could improve automatic and semi-automated diagnostics for the screening of retinal diseases, for the quantitative detection of retinal changes for follow-up, clinically relevant end-points for clinical studies and development of new therapeutic modalities.