Modelling non-industrial private forest landowners' strategic decision making by using logistic regression and neural networks: case of predicting the choice of forest taxation basis

Summary

Multivariable regression analysis and hot-spot stress approach into fatigue life estimations of welded joints

Kolmen eri hitsausliitoksen väsymisikä arvio on analysoitu monimuuttuja regressio analyysin avulla. Regression perustana on laaja S-N tietokanta joka on kerätty kirjallisuudesta. Tarkastellut liitokset ovat tasalevy liitos, krusiformi liitos ja pitkittäisripa levyssä. Muuttujina ovat jännitysvaihtelu, kuormitetun levyn paksuus ja kuormitus tapa. Paksuus effekti on käsitelty uudelleen kaikkia kolmea liitosta ajatellen. Uudelleen käsittelyn avulla on varmistettu paksuus effektin olemassa olo ennen monimuuttuja regressioon siirtymistä. Lineaariset väsymisikä yhtalöt on ajettu kolmelle hitsausliitokselle ottaen huomioon kuormitetun levyn paksuus sekä kuormitus tapa. Väsymisikä yhtalöitä on verrattu ja keskusteltu testitulosten valossa, jotka on kerätty kirjallisuudesta. Neljä tutkimustaon tehty kerättyjen väsymistestien joukosta ja erilaisia väsymisikä arvio metodeja on käytetty väsymisiän arviointiin. Tuloksia on tarkasteltu ja niistä keskusteltu oikeiden testien valossa. Tutkimuksissa on katsottu 2mm ja 6mm symmetristäpitkittäisripaa levyssä, 12.7mm epäsymmetristä pitkittäisripaa, 38mm symmetristä pitkittäisripaa vääntökuormituksessa ja 25mm/38mm kuorman kantavaa krusiformi liitosta vääntökuormituksessa. Mallinnus on tehty niin lähelle testi liitosta kuin mahdollista. Väsymisikä arviointi metodit sisältävät hot-spot metodin jossa hot-spot jännitys on laskettu kahta lineaarista ja epälineaarista ekstrapolointiakäyttäen sekä paksuuden läpi integrointia käyttäen. Lovijännitys ja murtumismekaniikka metodeja on käytetty krusiformi liitosta laskiessa.

Product Platform Development from the Product Lines' Perspective: Case of Switching Platform

In the era of fast product development and customized product requirements, the concept of product platform has proven its power in practice. The product platform approach has enabledcompanies to increase the speed of product introductions while simultaneously benefit from efficiency and effectiveness in the development and production activities. The product platforms are technological bases, which can be used to develop several derivative products, and hence, the differentiation can be pushed closer to the product introduction. The product platform development has some specific features, which differ somewhat from the product development of single products. The time horizon is longer, since the product platform¿slife cycle is longer than individual product's. The long time-horizon also proposes higher market risks and the use of new technologies increases the technological risks involved. The end-customer interface might be far away, but there is not a lack of needs aimed at the product platforms ¿ in fact, the product platform development is very much balancing between the varying needs set to it by thederivative products. This dissertation concentrated on product platform development from the internal product lines' perspective of a singlecase. Altogether six product platform development factors were identified: 'Strategic and business fit of product platform', 'Project communication and deliverables', 'Cooperation with product platform development', 'Innovativeness of product platform architecture and features', 'Reliability and quality of product platform', and 'Promised schedules and final product platform meeting the needs'. From the six factors, three were found to influence quite strongly the overall satisfaction, namely 'Strategic and business fit of product platform', 'Reliability and quality of product platform', and 'Promised schedules and final product platform meeting the needs'. Hence, these three factors might be the ones a new product platform development unit should concentrate first in order to satisfy their closest customers, the product lines. The 'Project communication and deliverables' and 'Innovativeness of product platform architecture and features' were weaker contributors to the overall satisfaction. Overall, the factors explained quite well the satisfaction of the product lines with product platform development. Along the research, several interesting aspects about the very basic nature of the product platform development were found. The long time horizon of the product platform development caused challenges in the area of strategic fIT - a conflict between the short-term requirements and long term needs. The fact that a product platform was used as basis of several derivative products resulted into varying needs, and hence the match with the needs and the strategies. The opinions, that the releases of the larger product lines were given higher priorities, give an interesting contribution to the strategy theory of powerand politics. The varying needs of the product lines, the strengths of them as well as large number of concurrent releases set requirements to prioritization. Hence, the research showed the complicated nature of the product platform development in the case unIT - the very basic nature of the product platform development might be its strength (gaining efficiency and effectiveness in product development and product launches) but also the biggest challenge (developing products to meet several needs). As a single case study, the results of this research are not directly generalizable to all the product platform development activities. Instead, the research serves best as a starting point for additional research as well as gives some insights about the factors and challengesof one product development unit.

Mediating the Immediate – Endogenous meanings and simulated narratives in ludic spaces

The thesis discusses games and the gaming experience. It is divided into two main sections; the first examines games in general, while the second concentrates exclusively on electronic games. The text approaches games from two distinct directions by looking at both their spatiality and their narrativity at the same time. These two points of view are combined right from the beginning of the text as they are used in conceptualising the nature of the gaming experience. The purpose of the thesis is to investigate two closely related issues concerning both the field of game studies and the nature of games. In regard to studying games, the focus is placed on the juxtaposition of ludology and narratology, which acts as a framework for looking at gaming. In addition to aiming to find out whether or not it is possible to undermine the said state of affairs through the spatiality of games, the text looks at the interrelationships of games and their spaces as well as the role of narratives in those spaces. The thesis is characterised by discussing alternative points of view and its hypothetical nature. During the text, it becomes apparent that the relationship between games and narratives is strongly twofold: on one hand, the player continuously narrativizes the states the game is in while playing, while the narratives residing within the game space form their own partially separate narrative spaces, on the other. These spaces affect the conception the player has of the game states and the events taking place in the game space itself.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Switching components for medium voltage drives

Nowadays power drives are the essential part almost of all technological processes. Improvement of efficiency and reduction of losses require development of semiconductor switches. It has a particular meaning for the constantly growing market of renewable sources, especially for wind turbines, which demand more powerful semiconductor devices for control with growth of power. Also at present semiconductor switches are the key component in energy transmission, optimization of generation and network connection. The aim of this thesis is to make a survey of contemporary semiconductor components, showing difference in structures, advantages, disadvantages and most suitable applications. There is topical information about voltage, frequency and current limits of different switches. Study tries to compare dimensions and price of different components. Main manufacturers of semiconductor components are presented with the review of devices produced by them, and a conclusion about their availability was made. IGBT is selected as a main component in this study, because nowadays it is the most attractive component for usage in power drives, especially at the low levels of medium voltage. History of development of IGBT structure, static and dynamic characteristics are considered. Thesis tells about assemblies and connection of components and problems which can appear. One of key questions about semiconductor materials and their future development was considered. For the purpose of comparison strong and weak sides of different switches, calculation of losses of IGBT and its basic competitor – IGCT is presented. This master’s thesis makes an effort to answer the question if there are at present possibilities of accurate selection of switches for electrical drives of different rates of power and looks at future possible ways of development of semiconductor market.

Novel Regression Methods For Spectral Data

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) are some of the mathematical pre- liminaries that are discussed prior to explaining PLS and PCR models. Both PLS and PCR are applied to real spectral data and their di erences and similarities are discussed in this thesis. The challenge lies in establishing the optimum number of components to be included in either of the models but this has been overcome by using various diagnostic tools suggested in this thesis. Correspondence analysis (CA) and PLS were applied to ecological data. The idea of CA was to correlate the macrophytes species and lakes. The di erences between PLS model for ecological data and PLS for spectral data are noted and explained in this thesis. i

Ecosystem architecture design: endogenous and exogenous structural properties

The aim of this dissertation is to bridge and synthesize the different streams of literature addressing ecosystem architecture through a multiple‐lens perspective. In addition, the structural properties of and processes to design and manage the architecture will be examined. With this approach, the oft‐neglected actor‐structure duality is addressed and both the position and structure, and action and process are under scrutiny. Further, the developed framework and empirical evidence offer valuable insights on how firms collectively create value and individually appropriate value. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first part comprises a literature review, as well as the conclusions of the whole study, and the second part includes six research publications. The dissertation is based on three different reasoning logics: abduction, induction and deduction; related qualitative and quantitative methodologies are utilized in the empirical examination of the phenomenon in the information and communication technology industry. The results suggest firstly that there are endogenous and exogenous structural properties of the ecosystem architecture. Out of these, the former ones can be more easily influenced by a particular actor whereas the latter ones are taken more or less for granted. Secondly, the exogenous ecosystem design properties influence the value creation potential of the ecosystem whereas the endogenous ecosystem design properties influence the value appropriation potential of a particular actor in the ecosystem. Thirdly, the study suggests that there is a relationship between endogenous and exogenous structural properties in that the endogenous properties can be leveraged to create and reconfigure the exogenous properties whereas the exogenous properties prose opportunities and restrictions on the use of endogenous properties. In addition, the study suggests that there are different emergent and engineered processes to design and manage ecosystem architecture and to influence both the endogenous and exogenous structural properties of ecosystem architecture. This study makes three main contributions. First, on the conceptual level, it brings coherence and direction to the fast growing body of literature on novel inter‐organizational arrangements, such as ecosystems. It does this by bridging and synthetizing three different streams of literature, namely the boundary, design and orchestration conception. Secondly, it sets out a framework that enhances our understanding of the structural properties of ecosystem architecture; of the processes to design and manage ecosystem architecture; and of their influence on the value creation potential of the ecosystem and the value capture potential of a particular firm. Thirdly, it offers empirical evidence of the structural properties and processes.

Prediction of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange

This thesis studies the predictability of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange by using financial statement information and market information from 2007 to 2012. This study was conducted by using a three stage process. In first stage relevant theoretical framework and initial variable pool were constructed. Then, explanatory analysis of the initial variable pool was done in order to further limit and identify relevant variables. The explanatory analysis was conducted by using self-organizing map methodology. In the third stage, the predictive modeling was carried out with random forests and support vector machine methodologies. It was found that the explanatory analysis was able to identify relevant variables. The results indicate that the market switching and delisting events can be predicted in some extent. The empirical results also support the usability of financial statement and market information in the prediction of market switching and delisting events.

Regime-Switching in the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries

Research has highlighted the adequacy of Markov regime-switching model to address dynamic behavior in long term stock market movements. Employing a purposed Extended regime-switching GARCH(1,1) model, this thesis further investigates the regime dependent nonlinear relationship between changes in oil price and stock market volatility in Saudi Arabia, Norway and Singapore for the period of 2001-2014. Market selection is prioritized to national dependency on oil export or import, which also rationalizes the fitness of implied bivariate volatility model. Among two regimes identified by the mean model, high stock market return-low volatility regime reflects the stable economic growth periods. The other regime characterized by low stock market return-high volatility coincides with episodes of recession and downturn. Moreover, results of volatility model provide the evidence that shocks in stock markets are less persistent during the high volatility regime. While accelerated oil price rises the stock market volatility during recessions, it reduces the stock market risk during normal growth periods in Singapore. In contrast, oil price showed no significant notable impact on stock market volatility of target oil-exporting countries in either of the volatility regime. In light to these results, international investors and policy makers could benefit the risk management in relation to oil price fluctuation.

Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.