Demographic Modelling of Human Population Growth

This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.

Eksponentiaalinen kasvu ja kasvun rajat: 2010-luvun haasteet

Tämän työn tavoitteena oli tutkia eksponentiaalista kasvua ja kasvun rajoja väestönkasvun, talouskasvun ja öljynkulutuksen kasvun kohdalla. Työssä käytiin aluksi läpi eksponentiaalisen kasvun määritelmä, jonka jälkeen määriteltiin väestönkasvu, talouskasvu ja öljynkulutuksen kasvu ja tutkittiin niiden historiaa, nykytilaa ja arvioitiin tulevaisuutta ja mahdollisisa lähitulevaisuuden ongelmia. Samalla pyrittiin löytämään kyseisiä kasvuilmiöitä mahdollisesti rajoittavia tekijöitä. Lopuksi analysoitiin tuloksia ja käsiteltyjen ilmiöiden yhteyksiä ja pohdittiin teknologian merkitystä eksponentiaalisen kasvun kestävyydelle. Tarkastelluista ilmiöistä öljynkulutuksen kasvu kohtaa rajansa ensimmäisenä jopa kuluvan vuosikymmenen aikana. Talouskasvu ja väestönkasvu eivät sinällään aiheuta lähitulevaisuudessa ongelmia, mutta öljyntuotannon kasvun taittuminen ja kysynnän kasvun jatkuminen johtavat heikkenevään öljyn saatavuuteen. Öljyn niukkuus tulee aiheuttamaan ongelmia etenkin taloudelle, ja on myös mahdollista että talouden heikkenemisen ja ruuantuotannon vaikeutumisen kautta se vaikuttaa negatiivisesti myös väestönkasvuun.

Identification of research trends in the field of separation processes. Application of epidemiological model, citation analysis, text mining, and technical analysis of the financial markets

Choice of industrial development options and the relevant allocation of the research funds become more and more difficult because of the increasing R&D costs and pressure for shorter development period. Forecast of the research progress is based on the analysis of the publications activity in the field of interest as well as on the dynamics of its change. Moreover, allocation of funds is hindered by exponential growth in the number of publications and patents. Thematic clusters become more and more difficult to identify, and their evolution hard to follow. The existing approaches of research field structuring and identification of its development are very limited. They do not identify the thematic clusters with adequate precision while the identified trends are often ambiguous. Therefore, there is a clear need to develop methods and tools, which are able to identify developing fields of research. The main objective of this Thesis is to develop tools and methods helping in the identification of the promising research topics in the field of separation processes. Two structuring methods as well as three approaches for identification of the development trends have been proposed. The proposed methods have been applied to the analysis of the research on distillation and filtration. The results show that the developed methods are universal and could be used to study of the various fields of research. The identified thematic clusters and the forecasted trends of their development have been confirmed in almost all tested cases. It proves the universality of the proposed methods. The results allow for identification of the fast-growing scientific fields as well as the topics characterized by stagnant or diminishing research activity.

Suomen peliteollisuuden kasvu ja kansainvälistyminen

Suomen peliteollisuus on ollut erittäin puhuttu aihe mediassa viime vuosien ajan. Työmme pyrkii selvittämään Suomen peliteollisuuden kasvun ja kansainvälistymisprosessin taustalla olleita tekijöitä sekä niiden suhteita toisiinsa. Työssä keskitytään analysoimaan jo tapahtunutta kasvua ja kansainvälistymistä, joiden tarkastelussa käytetään hyväksi Porterin jalostamaa Klusteri -teoriaa sekä kasvuyritysten uutta kansainvälistymisilmiötä, Born Global -teoriaa. Suomen peliteollisuuden klusterista esitetään hahmotelma pelialan kattavan kokonaiskuvan rakentamiseksi. Lopuksi kootaan havaintoja ja johtopäätöksiä Suomen peliteollisuusalan kasvuprosessista eri aikakausilta sekä analysoidaan kansainvälistymisprosessin kulkua ja metodologiaa. Myös näkemyksiä Suomen peliteollisuuden tulevaisuudesta esitetään. Suomen peliteollisuuden kasvua arvioidessa voidaan havaita, että sen kasvunopeus on lisääntynyt huomattavasti viimeisen muutaman vuoden aikana. Alan yritysten kasvu painottuu erittäin vahvasti globaaleille markkinoille. Peliteollisuus on kuitenkin edelleen erittäin pieni teollisuudenala Suomessa. Tulevaisuudessa sen koko ja merkitys tulevat kasvamaan, ja varsinkin Suomen mobiilipeliteollisuuden tulevaisuus näyttää valoisalta.

Thermal-Aware Networked Many-Core Systems

Advancements in IC processing technology has led to the innovation and growth happening in the consumer electronics sector and the evolution of the IT infrastructure supporting this exponential growth. One of the most difficult obstacles to this growth is the removal of large amount of heatgenerated by the processing and communicating nodes on the system. The scaling down of technology and the increase in power density is posing a direct and consequential effect on the rise in temperature. This has resulted in the increase in cooling budgets, and affects both the life-time reliability and performance of the system. Hence, reducing on-chip temperatures has become a major design concern for modern microprocessors. This dissertation addresses the thermal challenges at different levels for both 2D planer and 3D stacked systems. It proposes a self-timed thermal monitoring strategy based on the liberal use of on-chip thermal sensors. This makes use of noise variation tolerant and leakage current based thermal sensing for monitoring purposes. In order to study thermal management issues from early design stages, accurate thermal modeling and analysis at design time is essential. In this regard, spatial temperature profile of the global Cu nanowire for on-chip interconnects has been analyzed. It presents a 3D thermal model of a multicore system in order to investigate the effects of hotspots and the placement of silicon die layers, on the thermal performance of a modern ip-chip package. For a 3D stacked system, the primary design goal is to maximise the performance within the given power and thermal envelopes. Hence, a thermally efficient routing strategy for 3D NoC-Bus hybrid architectures has been proposed to mitigate on-chip temperatures by herding most of the switching activity to the die which is closer to heat sink. Finally, an exploration of various thermal-aware placement approaches for both the 2D and 3D stacked systems has been presented. Various thermal models have been developed and thermal control metrics have been extracted. An efficient thermal-aware application mapping algorithm for a 2D NoC has been presented. It has been shown that the proposed mapping algorithm reduces the effective area reeling under high temperatures when compared to the state of the art.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.