Mechanistic population Models in Biology: Model Derivation and Application

In general, models of ecological systems can be broadly categorized as ’top-down’ or ’bottom-up’ models, based on the hierarchical level that the model processes are formulated on. The structure of a top-down, also known as phenomenological, population model can be interpreted in terms of population characteristics, but it typically lacks an interpretation on a more basic level. In contrast, bottom-up, also known as mechanistic, population models are derived from assumptions and processes on a more basic level, which allows interpretation of the model parameters in terms of individual behavior. Both approaches, phenomenological and mechanistic modelling, can have their advantages and disadvantages in different situations. However, mechanistically derived models might be better at capturing the properties of the system at hand, and thus give more accurate predictions. In particular, when models are used for evolutionary studies, mechanistic models are more appropriate, since natural selection takes place on the individual level, and in mechanistic models the direct connection between model parameters and individual properties has already been established. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. Firstly, a systematical way to derive mechanistic discrete-time population models is presented. The derivation is based on combining explicitly modelled, continuous processes on the individual level within a reproductive period with a discrete-time maturation process between reproductive periods. Secondly, as an example of how evolutionary studies can be carried out in mechanistic models, the evolution of the timing of reproduction is investigated. Thus, these two lines of research, derivation of mechanistic population models and evolutionary studies, are complementary to each other.

People and the intertidal : human induced changes, biodiversity loss, livelihood implications and management in the Western Indian Ocean

Vad händer i tidvattenzonen? Var går gränsen mellan land och hav, vad händer i tidvattenzonen och vem ansvarar för detta? I västra Indiska oceanen (VIO) kan avståndet mellan den lägsta nivån för lågvattnet och den högsta nivån för högvattnet vara flera kilometer och nivåskillnaderna upp till 6 meter och detta skapar ett stort och föränderligt område. Syftet med min avhandling är att öka förståelsen för tidvattenzonen i tropiska och subtropiska västra Indiska oceanen. Sammanfattningsvis visar mina studier att det finns ett mycket stort värde i den komplexa tidvattenzonen, men också att det här området hotas från både land och hav, genom t.ex. överexploatering, erosion och föroreningar. Uttnyttjandet av tidvattenzonen är stort och min avhandling har visat att aktiviteter såsom fiske i form av plocking av musslor och andra ryggradslösa djur och hamnaktiviteter påverkar den biologiska mångfalden negativt, vilket leder till försämrad levnadsstandard för resursutnyttjande människor i regionen. För att förbättra situationen krävs det mer forskning, miljöövervakning och bättre förvaltning av tidvattenzonen. Experter i regionen har rangordnat förslag på förvaltningsstrategier som skulle kunna testas för att förbättra miljön och skapa ett mer hållbart nyttjande. Avhandlingen visar även att det är möjligt att använda fjärranalysteknik såsom satellitbildsanalys för att kvantifiera mängden sjögräsvegetation (i form av biomassa), vilket kan ha stor betydelse för att förbättra storskalig miljöövervakning av kustnära naturtyper (habitat). I avhandlingsarbetet har jag använt mig av ett multidisciplinärt tillvägagångssätt och använt metoder såsom ekologisk och biologisk provtagning, intervjuer, observationer, diskussionsgrupper, frågeformulär och fjärranalys. Resultaten presenterade i denna avhandling ger en ökad kunskap om tidvattenzonen i utvecklingsländerna inom VIO-regionen som kan användas för att initiera och fortsätta att utveckla hållbara förvaltningsstrategier av biologiska resurser.

Social class as a factor for the construction of a musician’s identity : The Musician’s social background and identity questionnaire (MSBIQ) – a cross-sectional comparative quantitative online survey research study of music students at two higher education institutions in Finland

There is currently little empirical knowledge regarding the construction of a musician’s identity and social class. With a theoretical framework based on Bourdieu’s (1984) distinction theory, Bronfenbrenner’s (1979) theory of ecological systems, and the identity theories of Erikson (1950; 1968) and Marcia (1966), a survey called the Musician’s Social Background and Identity Questionnaire (MSBIQ) is developed to test three research hypotheses related to the construction of a musician’s identity, social class and ecological systems of development. The MSBIQ is administered to the music students at Sibelius Academy of the University of Arts Helsinki and Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences, representing the ’highbrow’ and the ’middlebrow’ samples in the field of music education in Finland. Acquired responses (N = 253) are analyzed and compared with quantitative methods including Pearson’s chi-square test, factor analysis and an adjusted analysis of variance (ANOVA). The study revealed that (1) the music students at Sibelius Academy and Metropolia construct their subjective musician’s identity differently, but (2) social class does not affect this identity construction process significantly. In turn, (3) the ecological systems of development, especially the individual’s residential location, do significantly affect the construction of a musician’s identity, as well as the age at which one starts to play one’s first musical instrument. Furthermore, a novel finding related to the structure of a musician’s identity was the tripartite model of musical identity consisting of the three dimensions of a musician’s identity: (I) ’the subjective dimension of a musician’s identity’, (II) ’the occupational dimension of a musician’s identity’ and, (III) ’the conservative-liberal dimension of a musician’s identity’. According to this finding, a musician’s identity is not a uniform, coherent entity, but a structure consisting of different elements continuously working in parallel within different dimensions. The results and limitations related to the study are discussed, as well as the objectives related to future studies using the MSBIQ to research the identity construction and social backgrounds of a musician or other performing artists.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.