Geneettisten ja ympäristötekijöiden merkitys toiminnanvajausten kehittymisessä - The Finnish Twin Study on Aging (FITSA)

Summary: Genetic and environmental factors in the disablement process. The Finnish Twin Study on Aging (FITSA)

Demographic Modelling of Human Population Growth

This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.

Aging based maintenance and reinvestment scheduling of electric distribution

The maintenance of electric distribution network is a topical question for distribution system operators because of increasing significance of failure costs. In this dissertation the maintenance practices of the distribution system operators are analyzed and a theory for scheduling maintenance activities and reinvestment of distribution components is created. The scheduling is based on the deterioration of components and the increasing failure rates due to aging. The dynamic programming algorithm is used as a solving method to maintenance problem which is caused by the increasing failure rates of the network. The other impacts of network maintenance like environmental and regulation reasons are not included to the scope of this thesis. Further the tree trimming of the corridors and the major disturbance of the network are not included to the problem optimized in this thesis. For optimizing, four dynamic programming models are presented and the models are tested. Programming is made in VBA-language to the computer. For testing two different kinds of test networks are used. Because electric distribution system operators want to operate with bigger component groups, optimal timing for component groups is also analyzed. A maintenance software package is created to apply the presented theories in practice. An overview of the program is presented.

Towards sustainable transport: A comparison of demographic and behavioural characteristics of Finnish and international car sharing users

SStrong evidence suggests that the climate is changing and that these changes are largely caused by human activities. A consensus exists among researchers that human activity is causing global warming and that actions to mitigate global warming need to be taken swiftly. The transportation sector, which relies heavily on fossil fuel burning and primarily oil, is one of the big contributors to air pollution problems at local, regional and global levels. It is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions and is estimated to be responsible for nearly a quarter of global energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions. Car sharing is a mobility solution encouraging its users to decrease private car usage in favour of communal transit and environmental goals. The idea of car sharing originates from the aspiration to decrease personal car ownership and to reduce vehicle distance travelled. This thesis seeks to complement the understanding of Finnish car sharing users and their usage through better categorization. Through better categorization and segmentation of Finnish car sharing users the thesis seeks to provide information for improved marketing insight. Research is done on the demographic and behavioural characteristics of Finnish car sharing users and they are compared with international findings about the characteristics of International car sharing users. The main research problem is Are Finnish car sharing users similar to international ones? A theoretical research framework on the determinants of individual car sharing usage is built based on international research about demographic and behaviouristic characteristics. After this a quantitative survey is performed to the customers of a Finnish car sharing organization. The data analysed in the thesis consist out of 532 answers received from the car sharing organizations customers. The data is analysed with descriptive and other exploratory methods, which create an understanding of Finnish car sharing users. At the end of the analysis the demographic and behavioural characteristics of Finnish car sharing users are compared with international ones. The research findings of the thesis indicate that the demographic and behavioural characteristics of Finnish car sharing usage largely follow those of their international counterparts. Thanks to the thesis results the car sharing organization is able to better target their customers through improved marketing insight.