From Fluid Dynamics to Human Psychology.What Drives Financial Markets Towards Extreme Events

For decades researchers have been trying to build models that would help understand price performance in financial markets and, therefore, to be able to forecast future prices. However, any econometric approaches have notoriously failed in predicting extreme events in markets. At the end of 20th century, market specialists started to admit that the reasons for economy meltdowns may originate as much in rational actions of traders as in human psychology. The latter forces have been described as trading biases, also known as animal spirits. This study aims at expressing in mathematical form some of the basic trading biases as well as the idea of market momentum and, therefore, reconstructing the dynamics of prices in financial markets. It is proposed through a novel family of models originating in population and fluid dynamics, applied to an electricity spot price time series. The main goal of this work is to investigate via numerical solutions how well theequations succeed in reproducing the real market time series properties, especially those that seemingly contradict standard assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, in particular the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The results show that the proposed model is able to generate price realizations that closely reproduce the behaviour and statistics of the original electricity spot price. That is achieved in all price levels, from small and medium-range variations to price spikes. The latter were generated from price dynamics and market momentum, without superimposing jump processes in the model. In the light of the presented results, it seems that the latest assumptions about human psychology and market momentum ruling market dynamics may be true. Therefore, other commodity markets should be analyzed with this model as well.

Open science, citizen science, crowd science – promises and challenges

Presentation at the Nordic Perspectives on Open Access and Open Science seminar, Helsinki, October 15, 2013

Distributed Repositories of Medieval Calendars and Crowd-Sourcing of Transcription

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Value Creation in Crowd-Business: Developing a Framework for Successful Implementation of Crowdsourcing Initiatives

By recent years the phenomenon called crowdsourcing has been acknowledged as an innovative form of value creation that must be taken seriously. Crowdsourcing can be defined as an act of outsourcing tasks originally performed inside an organization, or assigned externally in form of a business relationship, to an undefinably large, heterogeneous mass of potential actors. This thesis constructs a framework for successful implementation of crowdsourcing initiatives. Firms that rely entirely on their own research and ideas cannot compete with the innovative capacity that crowd-powered firms have. Nowadays, crowdsourcing has become one of the key capabilities of businesses due to its innovative capabilities, in addition to the existing internal resources of the firm. By utilizing crowdsourcing the business gains access to an enormous pool of competence and knowledge. However, various risks remain such as uncertainty of crowd structure and loss of internal know-how. Crowdsourcing Success Framework introduces a step by step model for implementing crowdsourcing into the everyday operations of the business. It starts from the decision to utilize crowdsourcing and continues further into planning, organizing and execution. Finally, this thesis presents the success factors of crowdsourcing initiative.