Epävarmuuden haltuunotosta Venäjälle suuntautuvissa hankkeissa - tapaustutkimus

Tämä tutkimus tarkastelee epävarmuutta Venäjälle suuntautuvissa hankkeissa. Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan Venäjän liiketoimintaympäristöön liittyvää epävarmuutta. Tutkimusongelman muodostaa näiden epävarmuuksien haltuunotto Venäjälle suuntautuvissa investoinneissa. Tutkimuksen teoreettisena viitekehyksenä käytetään 1970-luvulta lähtien kehitettyä reaalioptiolähestymistapaa. Tutkimusmenetelmänä käytetään tapaustutkimusta, jossa esimerkkiyritysten tekemiä valintoja pohditaan reaalioptioviitekehyksen lävitse. Tutkimuksen empiirisessä osassa on haastateltu esimerkkiyritysten edustajia sekämuita venäjänkaupan ammattilaisia ja tiedusteltu heidän näkemyksiään markkinoiden kehityksestä ja erityispiirteistä. Reaalioptiolähestymistapaa käytetään apuvälineenä hankkeisiin sisältyvää epävarmuutta jäsenneltäessä ja päätöksentekijöiden kommunikaatiovälineenä päätöstilanteissa. Sen sijaan Venäjälle suuntautuvien hankkeiden (reaalioptioiden) matemaattinen arvottaminen on hankalaa liiketoimintaympäristön ominaispiirteiden vuoksi.

MCMC Analysis for Optimization of Stochastic Models

In any decision making under uncertainties, the goal is mostly to minimize the expected cost. The minimization of cost under uncertainties is usually done by optimization. For simple models, the optimization can easily be done using deterministic methods.However, many models practically contain some complex and varying parameters that can not easily be taken into account using usual deterministic methods of optimization. Thus, it is very important to look for other methods that can be used to get insight into such models. MCMC method is one of the practical methods that can be used for optimization of stochastic models under uncertainty. This method is based on simulation that provides a general methodology which can be applied in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state models. MCMC method is very important for practical applications because it is a uni ed estimation procedure which simultaneously estimates both parameters and state variables. MCMC computes the distribution of the state variables and parameters of the given data measurements. MCMC method is faster in terms of computing time when compared to other optimization methods. This thesis discusses the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for optimization of Stochastic models under uncertainties .The thesis begins with a short discussion about Bayesian Inference, MCMC and Stochastic optimization methods. Then an example is given of how MCMC can be applied for maximizing production at a minimum cost in a chemical reaction process. It is observed that this method performs better in optimizing the given cost function with a very high certainty.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Ohjaus ja oppilaiden urapohdinta. Turkulaisten peruskoulun päättöluokkalaisten ohjauskokemukset urapohdinnan selittäjinä

Tutkimuksessa selvitetään turkulaisten peruskoulun päättöluokkalaisten urapohdintaeroja ja sitä, miten oppilaiden arviot opettajien ja oppilaanohjaajien toteuttamasta ohjauksesta ovat yhteydessä heidän urapohdintaansa. Tutkimuksen kohdejoukkona ovat ensi sijassa yleisopetusta antavien suomenkielisten peruskoulujen yhdeksäsluokkalaiset. Tutkimus on poikkileikkaustutkimus, jossa tarkastellaan oppilaiden kokemuksia ohjauksen saatavuudesta ja hyödyllisyydestä sekä urapohdinnasta peruskoulun päättyessä. Tutkimusaineisto koottiin yhteishaun jälkeen huhti–toukokuussa 2014. Vuoden 2004 perusopetuksen opetussuunnitelman perusteista johdettujen väittämien avulla selitetään urapohdinta-mittarin sisältämien muuttujien vaihtelua. Taustamuuttujina käytetään oppilaiden koti- ja koulutaustaa. Urapohdinta-mittari on johdettu CIP-teoriasta (Cognitive Information Processing) ja muokattu CTI-mittarista (Career Thoughts Inventory). Tutkimusaineisto (N = 887) on koottu Webropol-kyselyn avulla. Oppilaiden urapohdintaa mitattiin neljän summamuuttujien avulla. Mittariston 48 väittämästä muodostettiin urapohdinta-summamuuttuja. Tämän lisäksi urapohdinnan osa-alueita arvioitiin sitoutuminen-, epävarmuus- ja konflikti-summamuuttujan avulla. Sitoutuminen-summamuuttuja mittasi sitä, miten vaikeaksi oppilas koki yhteen ura- ja jatkokoulutusvalintaan sitoutumisen. Epävarmuus-summamuuttuja mittasi päätöksenteon epävarmuutta ja konflikti-summamuuttuja vaikeutta tasapainoilla omien ajatusten ja toisaalta merkittäviksi koettujen läheisten ajatusten välillä. Kaikkien opettajien ohjaustyön näkökulmasta parhaiten hyvää urapohdintatulosta, jatkokoulutukseen sitoutumista ja päätöksentekovarmuutta ennustivat oppilaan hyvät kokemukset yhteistoiminnasta, hänen myönteinen suhtautumisensa koulunkäyntiin ja opintosuoritukset. Myös itseohjautuvuus oli tilastollisesti merkitsevässä yhteydessä urapohdintaan. Itseohjautuvuus-summamuuttuja mittasi sitä, oliko oppilas kokenut, että ohjaukselle asetetut tavoitteet saavutettiin. Opettajien tulisi kiinnittää ohjauksessaan huomiota hiljaisiin ja vähän huomiota vaativiin oppilaisiin ja tukea kaikkien oppilaiden toimintakykyä. Opinto-ohjaajan taas tulisi panostaa oppilaan itsetuntemuksen kehittämiseen ja valmiuteen toimia suunnitelmallisesti. Toisen asteen nivelvaiheohjauksen painopiste tulisi siirtää päättöluokkaa varhaisemmaksi. Tutkimustulos ei tue ajatusta, että tehostettu oppilaanohjaus kohdennettaisiin opintomenestyksen mukaan, koska heikkoja urapohtijoita oli kaikissa keskiarvosanaluokissa. Opinto-ohjaajien tulisi panostaa tieto- ja viestintätekniikan hyödyntämiseen ja tehostaa koko koulun työelämäyhteistyötä.

Offshoring and outsourcing under demand uncertainty -a supply chain management analysis

Outsourcing and offshoring or any combinations of these have not just become a popular phenomenon, but are viewed as one of the most important management strategies due to the new possibilities from globalization. They have been seen as a possibility to save costs and improve customer service. Executing offshoring and offshore outsourcing successfully can be more complex than initially expected. Potential cost savings resulting from of offshoring and offshore outsourcing are often based on lower manufacturing costs. However, these benefits might be conflicted by a more complex supply chain with service level challenges that can respectively increase costs. Therefore analyzing the total cost effects of offshoring and outsourcing is necessary. The aim of this Master´s Thesis was to to construct a total cost model using academic literature to calculate the total costs and analyze the reasonability of offshoring and offshore outsourcing production of a case company compared to insourcing production. The research data was mainly quantitative and collected mainly from the case company past sales and production records. In addition management level interviews from the case company were conducted. The information from these interviews was used for the qualification of the necessary quantitative data and adding supportive information that could not be gathered from the quantitative data. Both data collection and analysis were guided by a theoretical frame of reference that was based on academic literature concerning offshoring and outsourcing, statistical calculation of demand and total costs. The results confirm the theories that offshoring and offshore outsourcing would reduce total costs as both offshoring and offshore outsourcing options result in lower total annual costs than insourcing mainly due to lower manufacturing costs. However, increased demand uncertainty would make the alternative of offshore outsourcing more risky and difficult to manage. Therefore when assessing the overall impact of the alternatives, offshoring is the most preferable option. As the main cost savings in offshore outsourcing came from lower manufacturing costs, more specifically labour costs, the logistics costs in this case company did not have an essential effect in total costs. The management should therefore pay attention initially to manufacturing costs and then logistics costs when choosing the best production sourcing option for the company.

Foreign direct investment motives and location decision factors under economic recession: Three cases of Finnish FDI in Portugal

The purpose of this thesis was to study how uncertainty in economic conditions of the FDI host country affects location decision of an investment, and what kinds of motives are behind the investment decision to a country in economic recession, in this case Portugal. The country has attracted foreign direct investment steadily, but it is evident that most multinational firms and investors tend to be more interested in emerging economies in general. The aim was to find out also which host country specific advantages are important in this kind of cross-border investment and which factors are important for an FDI to succeed under economic uncertainty at the host country. The study was done by analyzing three Finnish case companies: a private equity and real estate investment firm Pontos Group, A wave energy technology research and development company AW Energy and NSN, Nokia Solutions and Networks, a global telecommunications company. The research was done empirically, by interviewing experts on the subject, mainly persons representing these companies. In addition relevant articles, journals and content from case companies’ web-pages is used for the desk research regarding the topic. The results of this thesis showed that the FDIs with strategic asset-seeking investments seem most profitable FDI types under uncertain economic conditions. This kind of investments aim to strengthen the company’s long-term strategy, including the time after recession. Firm-specific ownership advantages that bring competitive advantage proved out to be important under these circumstances, as well as first-mover advantages and externally created assets such as government promotional policies regarding FDI incentives. Also the location was considered suitable for resource- or efficiency seeking motives, based on the lowered price level at the host country. Problems were related mainly to financing, but as foreign companies receive financing usually from their home countries, the economic recession of the host country does not have significant effect for FDI decision, according to this study