Differential Evolution approach and parameter estimation of chaotic

Parameter estimation still remains a challenge in many important applications. There is a need to develop methods that utilize achievements in modern computational systems with growing capabilities. Owing to this fact different kinds of Evolutionary Algorithms are becoming an especially perspective field of research. The main aim of this thesis is to explore theoretical aspects of a specific type of Evolutionary Algorithms class, the Differential Evolution (DE) method, and implement this algorithm as codes capable to solve a large range of problems. Matlab, a numerical computing environment provided by MathWorks inc., has been utilized for this purpose. Our implementation empirically demonstrates the benefits of a stochastic optimizers with respect to deterministic optimizers in case of stochastic and chaotic problems. Furthermore, the advanced features of Differential Evolution are discussed as well as taken into account in the Matlab realization. Test "toycase" examples are presented in order to show advantages and disadvantages caused by additional aspects involved in extensions of the basic algorithm. Another aim of this paper is to apply the DE approach to the parameter estimation problem of the system exhibiting chaotic behavior, where the well-known Lorenz system with specific set of parameter values is taken as an example. Finally, the DE approach for estimation of chaotic dynamics is compared to the Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system (EPPES) approach which was recently proposed as a possible solution for similar problems.

Chaotic Behaviour of Active Magnetic Bearing System by Time Series Analysis

Chaotic behaviour is one of the hardest problems that can happen in nonlinear dynamical systems with severe nonlinearities. It makes the system's responses unpredictable. It makes the system's responses to behave similar to noise. In some applications it should be avoided. One of the approaches to detect the chaotic behaviour is nding the Lyapunov exponent through examining the dynamical equation of the system. It needs a model of the system. The goal of this study is the diagnosis of chaotic behaviour by just exploring the data (signal) without using any dynamical model of the system. In this work two methods are tested on the time series data collected from AMB (Active Magnetic Bearing) system sensors. The rst method is used to nd the largest Lyapunov exponent by Rosenstein method. The second method is a 0-1 test for identifying chaotic behaviour. These two methods are used to detect if the data is chaotic. By using Rosenstein method it is needed to nd the minimum embedding dimension. To nd the minimum embedding dimension Cao method is used. Cao method does not give just the minimum embedding dimension, it also gives the order of the nonlinear dynamical equation of the system and also it shows how the system's signals are corrupted with noise. At the end of this research a test called runs test is introduced to show that the data is not excessively noisy.

On state and parameter estimation in chaotic systems

State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

Comparing adult-youth and adult-adult online sexual solicitation: Manipulative behaviors, situational factors, and outcomes

Online sexual solicitation (solicitation) of youth has received widespread media and research attention during the last decade. The prevalence rates of youth who have experienced solicitation or solicitation attempts vary between studies depending on the methodology used (e.g., whether youth or adults are the target study group). In studies focusing on youth victims, the prevalence of solicitation attempts made by adults during the past year is typically reported to be between 5 and 9%. Adults who solicit youth online have been found to use deception and other manipulative behaviors to gain access to sexual activities with youth. However, previous studies have lacked a control group of adults who solicit other adults online. Without this comparison, one could argue that deceiving others online about one’s identity, and engaging in manipulative behaviors, is an inherent part of most online sexual interactions with strangers. Additionally, little is known about the associations between manipulative behaviors and the solicitation outcomes. In research concerning offline sexual behaviors, it has been noted that situational factors, such as sexual arousal, may alter both sexual interest and behavior. The effects of situational factors on online sexual behaviors have been less extensively studied (especially so with a quantitative approach); no studies have to date focused on adults’ solicitation of youth. Investigating the role of a lowered sexual age preference and the role of situational factors in the soliciting adults could be an important step in order to receive deeper knowledge of the role of traits and states in the context of solicitation. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge of the effect of the age of the youth. Although previous studies on solicitation has found that older youth, compared with younger youth and children, are more often solicited, the possible reasons for this have not been investigated. Are adults who solicit youth affected by legal deterrence (through the legal age of consent), is it because older youth are more available online, or are the adults’ age preferences merely a product of a normally distributed age preference in the population? The purpose of the present thesis was fivefold: 1) to obtain an estimate of the frequency of adults’ solicitation of youth as self-reported and observed in actual behavior; 2) to explore whether the legal age of consent (LAC) affects solicitation frequency, or whether a normally distributed sexual age preference more accurately describe the proportion of solicited youth of different ages; 3) to investigate the associations of both traits (e.g., lower sexual age preference) and states (immediate situational factors, such as alcohol intoxication), and the solicitation target; 4) to explore whether adults who solicit youth and adults who solicit adults are equally deceitful and manipulative online, and whether the different solicitation outcomes are as common in both groups; and 5) to investigate whether the deceitful and manipulative behaviors engaged in had different associations with the solicitation outcomes depending on the age of the solicited. In the survey study, a convenience sample of 1393 adult participants (aged 18 years or older) self-reported any online communication with strangers during the past year. Of these, 56% (776 respondents) reported that they had solicited or attempted to solicit at least one stranger. Of the respondents, 453 (58.4%) were men, and 323 (41.6%) were women. Participants with only adult contacts (18 years or older) constituted the majority (640 respondents). In contrast, 136 individuals reported a youth contact (a 13 year old or younger, or a 14 to 17-year old). Approximately half of the participants were men in the adult contact group, while 75% of the participants were men in the youth contact group. Approximately 60% of the participants with youth contacts were recruited from two websites associated with a pedophilic sexual interest. In an online quasi-experimental study, with researchers impersonating youth of different ages (10–18 year olds) in chat rooms, 251 online conversations with chat room visitors made up the entire sample. All chat room visitors alleged to be men. The self-reported frequency of having solicited youth (0–17-year olds) during the past year was approximately 10% in our sample of adults who reported communicating with any strangers online. When we observed this behavior in chat rooms, we found that approximately 30% of the chat room visitors who believed they interacted with a 10 to 14 year old attempted to solicit the youth. We found that solicitation attempts increased equally much when increasing the age of the impersonated youth from 14 to 16, as from 16 to 18. Thus, we concluded that a normally distributed age preference in the population was a more plausible explanation to the effect of the age of the solicited, rather than the LAC (here; 15 and 16). If the chat room visitors would have been deterred only by the LAC, we would have expected that the change in amount of solicitation attempts from an illegal age group to a legal age group would have been significantly stronger than changes between age groups within illegal-illegal and legal-legal groups. Our subsample of survey participants from the pedophilia-related websites expectedly reported that they had solicited youth more often in comparison to the sample gathered through general (i.e., not associated with any particular sexual preference) websites. We also found that participants with a youth contact reported higher levels of sexual arousal and shame before the sexual interaction with their online contact, compared with participants with an adult contact. Additionally, the participants with youth contacts who reported consumption of child- and adolescent pornography also reported being more sexually aroused before the interaction, compared to the participants with youth contacts who did not report consumption of these kinds of pornography. We also found clear indications that the online sexual interaction had an alleviatory effect on reported levels of sadness, boredom and stress, independent of the age of the contact. Generally, the participants with youth and adult contacts reported deceiving their contacts as often and suggesting keeping the communication a secret from someone as often. Participants with a youth contact, however, reported using more persuasion techniques for online sexual purposes or for the purpose of an offline meeting, compared to those with an adult contact. In the chat rooms, we found that more indirect ways of future sexual communication (e.g., continuing chatting) was suggested by the chat room visitors that were under the assumption of interacting with youth aged 10 to 14, compared with more direct means (e.g., meeting offline). Survey participants with youth contacts who had used deception, suggested keeping the interactions a secret, and/or persuaded their contact by appealing to the contacts feelings of love and attachment for the participant had also more often engaged in cybersex with the contact. No other manipulative behaviors were associated with the other investigated solicitation outcomes (receiving a sexual picture, meeting offline, and engaging in sexual contact offline) within this group of participants. However, using deception, suggesting secrecy and using persuasion was also positively associated with certain solicitation outcomes within participants with an adult contact. In summary, adults’ solicitation of youth is much more frequent when observed in chat rooms than self-reported. Additionally, an underlying lowered sexual age preference seems to be a motivating factor on a group level in adults who solicit youth. We concluded that directed prevention efforts should be made on pedophiliarelated websites. Additionally, the role of situational factors, especially sexual arousal in persons with a pedo- or hebephilic sexual interest should be investigated further in the context of online sexual solicitation.

JNK regulation of neurogenesis, neuroplasticity and anxiety-related behaviors in mice

I vår moderna värld har förekomsten av ångeststörningar drastiskt ökat, vilket påverkar välfärden i våra samhällen. Eftersom de molekylära mekanismerna bakom ångest är relativt okända, är möjligheterna till behandling av ångeststörningar begränsade. I och med utvecklingen av genetiska manipuleringmetoder och avbildningstekniker har strukturella förändringar associerade med ångeststörningar kunnat konstateras. Neuroanatomiska studier har påvisat störningar i dendritarkitektur, dendrittaggar och i neurogenesen hos vuxna individer. Särskilt neurogenesen i hippocampus anses viktig i detta sammanhang. Neurogenes i hippocampus har föreslagits spela en viktig roll i ångeststörningarnas patofysiologi och för hur vissa antidepressiva läkemedel förmedlar sin effekt. Under senare år har MAP-kinaser (MAPK) föreslagits vara involverade både i uppkomsten av affektiva störningar och i neurogenes i hippocampus. JNK är en grupp kinaser inom MAPK-familjen som aktiveras av olika externa stressfaktorer. I normala celler är aktiviteten hos JNK låg. Cell-stress ökar aktiviteten hos JNK vilket leder till bl.a. apoptos. JNK kinaser anses vara potentiella terapeutiska mål för behandling av neurodegenerativa sjukdomar men deras potential som mål för behandling av affektiva sjukdomar har tillsvidare inte utretts. Den här avhandlingen behandlar betydelsen av JNK för ångestrelaterat beteende hos möss. Med hjälp av Jnk1-knockout möss och farmakologisk inhibering av JNK-signalering, demonstreras att JNK reglerar neurogenes i hippocampus, vilket i sin tur ligger bakom mössens ångestrelaterade beteende. Jnk1-knockout möss var mindre ängsliga och uppvisade ökad neurogenes i hippcampus jämfört med kontrollmöss. Inhibering av JNK-signalering i hjärnan hos möss gjorde dem också mindre ängsliga och ökade neurogenesen i hippocampus på samma sätt som vissa antidepressiva läkemedel. Inhibering av JNK-aktivitet ledde inte bara till ökad neurogenes i hippocampus, utan främjade också mognandet av nybildade nervceller hos vuxna möss. Resultaten visar också att dendritarkitekturen och fördelningen av dendrittaggar hos CA3 neuroner i hippocampus är förändrad hos Jnk1-knockout möss. Genom screening av substratmolekyler för JNK hittades två JNKeffektormolekyler, MARCKSL1 (ett aktin-associerat protein) och MAP2 (ett mikrotubulus-associerat protein), som reglerade neuronernas sttruktur. Det här tyder på att JNK-signalering kan kontrollera ångeststörningsrelaterade förändringar hor dendriter och dendrittaggar. Sammanfattningsvis ger resultaten som presenteras i avhandlingen en ökad insikt i molekylära mekanismer som kan leda till ångeststörningsrelaterade förändringar i neurogenes och dendritstruktur. Därtill föreslås att JNKsignalbanan har potential som terapeutiskt mål för behandling av ångeststörningar.

Parameter estimation for Chaotic or Stochastic Dynamics

Since its discovery, chaos has been a very interesting and challenging topic of research. Many great minds spent their entire lives trying to give some rules to it. Nowadays, thanks to the research of last century and the advent of computers, it is possible to predict chaotic phenomena of nature for a certain limited amount of time. The aim of this study is to present a recently discovered method for the parameter estimation of the chaotic dynamical system models via the correlation integral likelihood, and give some hints for a more optimized use of it, together with a possible application to the industry. The main part of our study concerned two chaotic attractors whose general behaviour is diff erent, in order to capture eventual di fferences in the results. In the various simulations that we performed, the initial conditions have been changed in a quite exhaustive way. The results obtained show that, under certain conditions, this method works very well in all the case. In particular, it came out that the most important aspect is to be very careful while creating the training set and the empirical likelihood, since a lack of information in this part of the procedure leads to low quality results.