Timing of Capacity Change: Models for Capital Intensive Industry

The suitable timing of capacity investments is a remarkable issue especially in capital intensive industries. Despite its importance, fairly few studies have been published on the topic. In the present study models for the timing of capacity change in capital intensive industry are developed. The study considers mainly the optimal timing of single capacity changes. The review of earlier research describes connections between cost, capacity and timing literature, and empirical examples are used to describe the starting point of the study and to test the developed models. The study includes four models, which describe the timing question from different perspectives. The first model, which minimizes unit costs, has been built for capacity expansion and replacement situations. It is shown that the optimal timing of an investment can be presented with the capacity and cost advantage ratios. After the unit cost minimization model the view is extended to the direction of profit maximization. The second model states that early investments are preferable if the change of fixed costs is small compared to the change of the contribution margin. The third model is a numerical discounted cash flow model, which emphasizes the roles of start-up time, capacity utilization rate and value of waiting as drivers of the profitable timing of a project. The last model expands the view from project level to company level and connects the flexibility of assets and cost structures to the timing problem. The main results of the research are the solutions of the models and analysis or simulations done with the models. The relevance and applicability of the results are verified by evaluating the logic of the models and by numerical cases.

Change of Electricity Distribution Industry: Drivers and Opening Business Opportunities

As a result of the recent regulatory amendments and other development trends in the electricity distribution business, the sector is currently witnessing radical restructuring that will eventually impact the business logics of the sector. This report represents upcoming changes in the electricity distribution industry and concentrates on the factors that are expected to be the most fundamental ones. Electricity network companies nowadays struggle with legislative and regulatory requirements that focus on both the operational efficiency and the reliability of electricity distribution networks. The forces that have an impact on the distribution network companies can be put into three main categories that define the transformation at a general level. Those are: (1) a requirement for a more functional marketplace for energy, (2) environmental aspects (combating climate change etc.), and (3) a strongly emphasized requirement for the security of energy supply. The first point arises from the legislators’ attempt to increase competition in electricity retail markets, the second one concerns both environmental protection and human safety issues, and the third one indicates societies’ reduced willingness to accept interruptions in electricity supply. In the future, regulation of electricity distribution business may lower the threshold for building more weather-resistant networks, which in turn means increased underground cabling. This development pattern is reinforced by tightening safety and environmental regulations that ultimately make the overhead lines expensive to build and maintain. The changes will require new approaches particularly in network planning, construction, and maintenance. The concept for planning, constructing, and maintaining cable networks is necessary because the interdependencies between network operations are strong, in other words, the nature of the operation requires a linkage to other operations.

Innovations of ageing and societal transition : Dynamics of change of the socio-technical regime of ageing

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the dynamics of the socio-technical system in the field of ageing. The study stems from the notion that the ageing of the population as a powerful megatrend has wide societal effects, and is not just a matter for the social and health sector. The central topic in the study is change: not only the age structures and structures of society are changing, but also at the same time there is constant development, for instance, in technologies, infrastructures and cultural perceptions. The changing concept of innovation has widened the understanding of innovations related to ageing from medical and assistive technological innovations to service and social innovations, as well as systemic innovations at different levels, which means the intertwined and co-evolutionary change in technologies, structures, services and thinking models. By the same token, the perceptions of older people and old age are becoming more multi-faceted: old age is no longer equated to illnesses and decline, but visions of active ageing and a third age have emerged, which are framed by choices, opportunities, resources and consumption in later life. The research task in this study is to open up the processes and mechanisms of change in the field of ageing, which are studied as a complex, multi-level and interrelated socio-technical system. The question is about co-effective elements consisting of macro-level landscape changes, the existing socio-technical regime (the rule system, practices and structures) and bottom-up niche-innovations. Societal transitions do not account for the things inside the regime alone, or for the long-term changes in the landscape, nor for the radical innovations, but for the interplay between all these levels. The research problem is studied through five research articles, which offer micro-level case studies to macro-level phenomenon. Each of the articles focus on different aspects related to ageing and change, and utilise various datasets. The framework of this study leans on the studies of socio-technical systems and multi-level perspective on transitions mainly developed by Frank Geels. Essential factors in transition from one socio-technological regime to another are the co-evolutionary processes between landscape changes, regime level and experimental niches. Landscape level changes, like the ageing of the population, destabilise the regime in the forms of coming pressures. This destabilization offers windows for opportunity to niche-innovations outside or at fringe of the regime, which, through their breakthrough, accelerate the transition process. However, the change is not easy because of various kinds of lock-ins and inertia, which tend to maintain the stability of the regime. In this dissertation, a constructionist approach of society is applied leaning mainly to the ideas of Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration, with the dual nature of structures. The change is taking place in the interplay between actors and structures: structures shape people’s practices, but at the same time these practices constitute and reproduce social systems. Technology and other material aspects, as part of socio-technical systems, and the use of them, also take part in the structuration process. The findings of the study point out that co-evolutionary and co-effective relationships between economic, cultural, technological and institutional fields, as well as relationships between landscape changes, changes in the local and regime-level practices and rule systems, are a very complex and multi-level dynamic socio-technical phenomenon. At the landscape level of ageing, which creates the pressures and triggers to the regime change, there are three remarkable megatrends: demographic change, changes in the global economy and the development of technologies. These exert pressures to the socio-technical regime, which as a rule system is experiencing changes in the form of new markets and consumer habits, new ways of perceiving ageing, new models of organising the health care and other services and as new ways of considering innovation and innovativeness. There are also inner dynamics in the relationships between these aspects within the regime. These are interrelated and coconstructed: the prevailing perceptions of ageing and innovation, for instance, reflect the ageing policies, innovation policies, societal structures, organising models, technology and scientific discussion, and vice versa. Technology is part of the inner dynamics of the sociotechnological regime. Physical properties of the artefacts set limitations and opportunities with regard to their functions and uses. The use of and discussion about technology, contributes producing and reproducing the perceptions of old age. For societal transition, micro-level changes are also needed, in form of niche-innovations, for instance new services, organisational models or new technologies, Regimes, as stabilitystriven systems, tend to generate incremental innovations, but radically new innovations are generated in experimental niches protected from ‘normal’ market selection. The windows of opportunity for radical novelties may be opened if the circumstances are favourable for instance by tensions in the socio-technical regime affected by landscape level changes. This dissertation indicates that a change is taking place, firstly, in the dynamic interactionbetween levels, as a result of purposive action and governance to some extent. Breaking the inertia and using the window of opportunity for change and innovation offered by dynamics between levels, presupposes the actors’ special capabilities and actions such as dynamic capabilities and distance management. Secondly, the change is taking place the socio-technological negotiations inside the regime: interaction between technological and social, which is embodied in the use of technology. The use of technology includes small-level contextual scripts that also participate in forming broader societal scripts (for instance defining old age at the society level), which in their turn affect the formation of policies for innovation and ageing. Thirdly, the change is taking place by the means of active formation of the multi-actor innovation networks, where the role of distance management is crucial to facilitate the communication between actors coming from different backgrounds as well as to help the niches born outside the regime to utilise the window of opportunity offered by regime destabilisation. This dissertation has both theoretical and practical contributions. This study participates in the discussion of action-oriented view on transition by opening up of the socio-technological, coevolutionary processes of the multi-faceted phenomenon of ageing, which has lacked systematic analyses. The focus of this study, however, is not on the large-scale coordination and governance, but rather on opening up the incremental elements and structuration processes, which contribute to the transition little by little, and which can be affected to. This increases the practical importance of this dissertation, by highlighting the importance of very tiny, everyday elements in the change processes in the long run.

Strategic Change Management Readiness Evaluation in Organizations

The objective of this study and paper was to find out how the strategic change management readiness in organizations can be evaluated. Based on theory and prior CMP model, the framework of strategic change management and issues related to it was constructed. Additionally a synthesis of the most important phases and interventions in strategic change process and project was created. These phases were starting point, planning, implementation and evaluation and securing phases. Qualitative approach was utilized in the empirical part of the study due to the need for in-depth information about the topics surveyed through semi-structured interview. There were 18 responders from the top management of large Finnish companies. In this study interventions, strengths and weaknesses during the various phases of strategic change projects were revealed. Additionally the interviewees’ opinion on the importance of each of the interventions in strategic change project success was asked. According to this study, the most important phases recognized through researching theoretical literature, prior CMP model and empirical information in starting point phase were analysis of current and desired state and need for change accompanied with guiding coalition formulation. In planning phase the most important interventions were project organization formulation, action plan creation, analysis of prior and current strategic change projects and organizational structure analysis. In the change project implementation phase the interventions of importance were launch, quick wins, sense of urgency creation, change resistance management and change communications. In the final evaluation and securing phase project evaluation was the most important intervention. Based on the results a tool for creating change management readiness profile was created.