Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)

“THE PATIENT SURVIVED DESPITE THE TREATMENT”. A study of Finnish health policy and New Public Management. Case: The Government Resolution on the Health 2015 public health programme.

Internationally, Finland has been among the most respected countries during several decades in terms of public health. WHO has had the most significant influence on Finnish health policy and the relationship has traditionally been warm. However, the situation has slightly changed in the last 10-20 years. The objectives of Finnish national health policy have been to secure the best possible health for the population and to minimize disparities in health between different population groups. Nevertheless, although the state of public health and welfare has steadily improved, the socioeconomic disparities in health have increased. This qualitative case study will demonstrate why health is political and why health matters. It will also present some recommendations for research topics and administrative reforms. It will be argued that lack of political interest in health policy leads to absence of health policy visions and political commitment, which can be disastrous for public health. This study will investigate how Finnish health policy is defined and organised, and it will also shed light on Finnish health policy formation processes and actors. Health policy is understood as a broader societal construct covering the domains of different ministries, not just Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (MSAH). The influences of economic recession of the 1990s, state subsidy reform in 1993, globalisation and the European Union will be addressed, as well. There is not much earlier Finnish research done on health policy from political science viewpoint. Therefore, this study is interdisciplinary and combines political science with administrative science, contemporary history and health policy research with a hint of epidemiology. As a method, literature review, semi-structured interviews and policy analysi will be utilised. Institutionalism, policy transfer, and corporatism are understood as the theoretical framework. According to the study, there are two health policies in Finland: the official health policy and health policy generated by industry, media and various interest organisations. The complex relationships between the Government and municipalities, and on the other hand, the MSAH and National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) seemed significant in terms of Finnish health policy coordination. The study also showed that the Investigated case, Health 2015, does not fulfil all necessary criteria for a successful public health programme. There were also several features both in Health 2015 and Finnish health policy, which can be interpreted in NPM framework and seen having NPM influences.