Differential Evolution approach and parameter estimation of chaotic

Parameter estimation still remains a challenge in many important applications. There is a need to develop methods that utilize achievements in modern computational systems with growing capabilities. Owing to this fact different kinds of Evolutionary Algorithms are becoming an especially perspective field of research. The main aim of this thesis is to explore theoretical aspects of a specific type of Evolutionary Algorithms class, the Differential Evolution (DE) method, and implement this algorithm as codes capable to solve a large range of problems. Matlab, a numerical computing environment provided by MathWorks inc., has been utilized for this purpose. Our implementation empirically demonstrates the benefits of a stochastic optimizers with respect to deterministic optimizers in case of stochastic and chaotic problems. Furthermore, the advanced features of Differential Evolution are discussed as well as taken into account in the Matlab realization. Test "toycase" examples are presented in order to show advantages and disadvantages caused by additional aspects involved in extensions of the basic algorithm. Another aim of this paper is to apply the DE approach to the parameter estimation problem of the system exhibiting chaotic behavior, where the well-known Lorenz system with specific set of parameter values is taken as an example. Finally, the DE approach for estimation of chaotic dynamics is compared to the Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system (EPPES) approach which was recently proposed as a possible solution for similar problems.

Chaotic Behaviour of Active Magnetic Bearing System by Time Series Analysis

Chaotic behaviour is one of the hardest problems that can happen in nonlinear dynamical systems with severe nonlinearities. It makes the system's responses unpredictable. It makes the system's responses to behave similar to noise. In some applications it should be avoided. One of the approaches to detect the chaotic behaviour is nding the Lyapunov exponent through examining the dynamical equation of the system. It needs a model of the system. The goal of this study is the diagnosis of chaotic behaviour by just exploring the data (signal) without using any dynamical model of the system. In this work two methods are tested on the time series data collected from AMB (Active Magnetic Bearing) system sensors. The rst method is used to nd the largest Lyapunov exponent by Rosenstein method. The second method is a 0-1 test for identifying chaotic behaviour. These two methods are used to detect if the data is chaotic. By using Rosenstein method it is needed to nd the minimum embedding dimension. To nd the minimum embedding dimension Cao method is used. Cao method does not give just the minimum embedding dimension, it also gives the order of the nonlinear dynamical equation of the system and also it shows how the system's signals are corrupted with noise. At the end of this research a test called runs test is introduced to show that the data is not excessively noisy.

On state and parameter estimation in chaotic systems

State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

Parameter estimation for Chaotic or Stochastic Dynamics

Since its discovery, chaos has been a very interesting and challenging topic of research. Many great minds spent their entire lives trying to give some rules to it. Nowadays, thanks to the research of last century and the advent of computers, it is possible to predict chaotic phenomena of nature for a certain limited amount of time. The aim of this study is to present a recently discovered method for the parameter estimation of the chaotic dynamical system models via the correlation integral likelihood, and give some hints for a more optimized use of it, together with a possible application to the industry. The main part of our study concerned two chaotic attractors whose general behaviour is diff erent, in order to capture eventual di fferences in the results. In the various simulations that we performed, the initial conditions have been changed in a quite exhaustive way. The results obtained show that, under certain conditions, this method works very well in all the case. In particular, it came out that the most important aspect is to be very careful while creating the training set and the empirical likelihood, since a lack of information in this part of the procedure leads to low quality results.

Theoretical and numerical study of thermomagnetic convection in magnetic fluids

In this thesis, the magnetic field control of convection instabilities and heat and mass transfer processesin magnetic fluids have been investigated by numerical simulations and theoretical considerations. Simulation models based on finite element and finite volume methods have been developed. In addition to standard conservation equations, themagnetic field inside the simulation domain is calculated from Maxwell equations and the necessary terms to take into account for the magnetic body force and magnetic dissipation have been added to the equations governing the fluid motion.Numerical simulations of magnetic fluid convection near the threshold supportedexperimental observations qualitatively. Near the onset of convection the competitive action of thermal and concentration density gradients leads to mostly spatiotemporally chaotic convection with oscillatory and travelling wave regimes, previously observed in binary mixtures and nematic liquid crystals. In many applications of magnetic fluids, the heat and mass transfer processes including the effects of external magnetic fields are of great importance. In addition to magnetic fluids, the concepts and the simulation models used in this study may be applied also to the studies of convective instabilities in ordinary fluids as well as in other binary mixtures and complex fluids.

Selective catalytic reduction of nitrogen oxides with ammonia in forced unsteady state reactors - Case based reasoning and mathematical model simulation reasoning

The application of forced unsteady-state reactors in case of selective catalytic reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOx) with ammonia (NH3) is sustained by the fact that favorable temperature and composition distributions which cannot be achieved in any steady-state regime can be obtained by means of unsteady-state operations. In a normal way of operation the low exothermicity of the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) reaction (usually carried out in the range of 280-350°C) is not enough to maintain by itself the chemical reaction. A normal mode of operation usually requires supply of supplementary heat increasing in this way the overall process operation cost. Through forced unsteady-state operation, the main advantage that can be obtained when exothermic reactions take place is the possibility of trapping, beside the ammonia, the moving heat wave inside the catalytic bed. The unsteady state-operation enables the exploitation of the thermal storage capacity of the catalyticbed. The catalytic bed acts as a regenerative heat exchanger allowing auto-thermal behaviour when the adiabatic temperature rise is low. Finding the optimum reactor configuration, employing the most suitable operation model and identifying the reactor behavior are highly important steps in order to configure a proper device for industrial applications. The Reverse Flow Reactor (RFR) - a forced unsteady state reactor - corresponds to the above mentioned characteristics and may be employed as an efficient device for the treatment of dilute pollutant mixtures. As a main disadvantage, beside its advantages, the RFR presents the 'wash out' phenomena. This phenomenon represents emissions of unconverted reactants at every switch of the flow direction. As a consequence our attention was focused on finding an alternative reactor configuration for RFR which is not affected by the incontrollable emissions of unconverted reactants. In this respect the Reactor Network (RN) was investigated. Its configuration consists of several reactors connected in a closed sequence, simulating a moving bed by changing the reactants feeding position. In the RN the flow direction is maintained in the same way ensuring uniformcatalyst exploitation and in the same time the 'wash out' phenomena is annulated. The simulated moving bed (SMB) can operate in transient mode giving practically constant exit concentration and high conversion levels. The main advantage of the reactor network operation is emphasizedby the possibility to obtain auto-thermal behavior with nearly uniformcatalyst utilization. However, the reactor network presents only a small range of switching times which allow to reach and to maintain an ignited state. Even so a proper study of the complex behavior of the RN may give the necessary information to overcome all the difficulties that can appear in the RN operation. The unsteady-state reactors complexity arises from the fact that these reactor types are characterized by short contact times and complex interaction between heat and mass transportphenomena. Such complex interactions can give rise to a remarkable complex dynamic behavior characterized by a set of spatial-temporal patterns, chaotic changes in concentration and traveling waves of heat or chemical reactivity. The main efforts of the current research studies concern the improvement of contact modalities between reactants, the possibility of thermal wave storage inside the reactor and the improvement of the kinetic activity of the catalyst used. Paying attention to the above mentioned aspects is important when higher activity even at low feeding temperatures and low emissions of unconverted reactants are the main operation concerns. Also, the prediction of the reactor pseudo or steady-state performance (regarding the conversion, selectivity and thermal behavior) and the dynamicreactor response during exploitation are important aspects in finding the optimal control strategy for the forced unsteady state catalytic tubular reactors. The design of an adapted reactor requires knowledge about the influence of its operating conditions on the overall process performance and a precise evaluation of the operating parameters rage for which a sustained dynamic behavior is obtained. An apriori estimation of the system parameters result in diminution of the computational efforts. Usually the convergence of unsteady state reactor systems requires integration over hundreds of cycles depending on the initial guess of the parameter values. The investigation of various operation models and thermal transfer strategies give reliable means to obtain recuperative and regenerative devices which are capable to maintain an auto-thermal behavior in case of low exothermic reactions. In the present research work a gradual analysis of the SCR of NOx with ammonia process in forced unsteady-state reactors was realized. The investigation covers the presentationof the general problematic related to the effect of noxious emissions in the environment, the analysis of the suitable catalysts types for the process, the mathematical analysis approach for modeling and finding the system solutions and the experimental investigation of the device found to be more suitable for the present process. In order to gain information about the forced unsteady state reactor design, operation, important system parameters and their values, mathematical description, mathematicalmethod for solving systems of partial differential equations and other specific aspects, in a fast and easy way, and a case based reasoning (CBR) approach has been used. This approach, using the experience of past similarproblems and their adapted solutions, may provide a method for gaining informations and solutions for new problems related to the forced unsteady state reactors technology. As a consequence a CBR system was implemented and a corresponding tool was developed. Further on, grooving up the hypothesis of isothermal operation, the investigation by means of numerical simulation of the feasibility of the SCR of NOx with ammonia in the RFRand in the RN with variable feeding position was realized. The hypothesis of non-isothermal operation was taken into account because in our opinion ifa commercial catalyst is considered, is not possible to modify the chemical activity and its adsorptive capacity to improve the operation butis possible to change the operation regime. In order to identify the most suitable device for the unsteady state reduction of NOx with ammonia, considering the perspective of recuperative and regenerative devices, a comparative analysis of the above mentioned two devices performance was realized. The assumption of isothermal conditions in the beginningof the forced unsteadystate investigation allowed the simplification of the analysis enabling to focus on the impact of the conditions and mode of operation on the dynamic features caused by the trapping of one reactant in the reactor, without considering the impact of thermal effect on overall reactor performance. The non-isothermal system approach has been investigated in order to point out the important influence of the thermal effect on overall reactor performance, studying the possibility of RFR and RN utilization as recuperative and regenerative devices and the possibility of achieving a sustained auto-thermal behavior in case of lowexothermic reaction of SCR of NOx with ammonia and low temperature gasfeeding. Beside the influence of the thermal effect, the influence of the principal operating parameters, as switching time, inlet flow rate and initial catalyst temperature have been stressed. This analysis is important not only because it allows a comparison between the two devices and optimisation of the operation, but also the switching time is the main operating parameter. An appropriate choice of this parameter enables the fulfilment of the process constraints. The level of the conversions achieved, the more uniform temperature profiles, the uniformity ofcatalyst exploitation and the much simpler mode of operation imposed the RN as a much more suitable device for SCR of NOx with ammonia, in usual operation and also in the perspective of control strategy implementation. Theoretical simplified models have also been proposed in order to describe the forced unsteady state reactors performance and to estimate their internal temperature and concentration profiles. The general idea was to extend the study of catalytic reactor dynamics taking into account the perspectives that haven't been analyzed yet. The experimental investigation ofRN revealed a good agreement between the data obtained by model simulation and the ones obtained experimentally.

Minimization of the experimental workload for the prediction of pollutants propagation in rivers. Mathematical modelling and knowledge re-use

The present thesis in focused on the minimization of experimental efforts for the prediction of pollutant propagation in rivers by mathematical modelling and knowledge re-use. Mathematical modelling is based on the well known advection-dispersion equation, while the knowledge re-use approach employs the methods of case based reasoning, graphical analysis and text mining. The thesis contribution to the pollutant transport research field consists of: (1) analytical and numerical models for pollutant transport prediction; (2) two novel techniques which enable the use of variable parameters along rivers in analytical models; (3) models for the estimation of pollutant transport characteristic parameters (velocity, dispersion coefficient and nutrient transformation rates) as functions of water flow, channel characteristics and/or seasonality; (4) the graphical analysis method to be used for the identification of pollution sources along rivers; (5) a case based reasoning tool for the identification of crucial information related to the pollutant transport modelling; (6) and the application of a software tool for the reuse of information during pollutants transport modelling research. These support tools are applicable in the water quality research field and in practice as well, as they can be involved in multiple activities. The models are capable of predicting pollutant propagation along rivers in case of both ordinary pollution and accidents. They can also be applied for other similar rivers in modelling of pollutant transport in rivers with low availability of experimental data concerning concentration. This is because models for parameter estimation developed in the present thesis enable the calculation of transport characteristic parameters as functions of river hydraulic parameters and/or seasonality. The similarity between rivers is assessed using case based reasoning tools, and additional necessary information can be identified by using the software for the information reuse. Such systems represent support for users and open up possibilities for new modelling methods, monitoring facilities and for better river water quality management tools. They are useful also for the estimation of environmental impact of possible technological changes and can be applied in the pre-design stage or/and in the practical use of processes as well.

On Undecidable Dynamical Properties of Reversible One-Dimensional Cellular Automata

Cellular automata are models for massively parallel computation. A cellular automaton consists of cells which are arranged in some kind of regular lattice and a local update rule which updates the state of each cell according to the states of the cell's neighbors on each step of the computation. This work focuses on reversible one-dimensional cellular automata in which the cells are arranged in a two-way in_nite line and the computation is reversible, that is, the previous states of the cells can be derived from the current ones. In this work it is shown that several properties of reversible one-dimensional cellular automata are algorithmically undecidable, that is, there exists no algorithm that would tell whether a given cellular automaton has the property or not. It is shown that the tiling problem of Wang tiles remains undecidable even in some very restricted special cases. It follows that it is undecidable whether some given states will always appear in computations by the given cellular automaton. It also follows that a weaker form of expansivity, which is a concept of dynamical systems, is an undecidable property for reversible one-dimensional cellular automata. It is shown that several properties of dynamical systems are undecidable for reversible one-dimensional cellular automata. It shown that sensitivity to initial conditions and topological mixing are undecidable properties. Furthermore, non-sensitive and mixing cellular automata are recursively inseparable. It follows that also chaotic behavior is an undecidable property for reversible one-dimensional cellular automata.

Introduktionen av kärnkraften i Finland

Finlands industri har av tradition varit starkt energikrävande. Träförädlingsindustrin, som fick sin egentliga start i medlet på 1800-talet, använde stora mängder energi liksom metallförädlingsföretagen i ett senare skede. Krigstiden med sin energiransonering visade handgripligen för allmänheten liksom för specialisterna att en tillräcklig tillgång till energi är ett livsvillkor för vår industri och därmed för vårt land. Efterkrigstiden kännetecknades av en allt snabbare utbyggnad av den på vatten- och ångkraft baserade elkraftskapaciteten, en utbyggnad som den inhemska verkstadsindustrin i stor utsträckning deltog i. Men redan på 1950-talet var vattenkraften till stor del utbyggd, varför den privata såväl som den statliga sektorns intresse allt mera inriktade sig på den speciellt i USA favoriserade atomenergin. Efter fördjupade studier i kärnfysik och kärnteknik vid the International School of Nuclear Science and Engineering i USA deltog författaren av dessa rader intensivt (först som Ahlströmanställd och senare som VD för Finnatom) i den utvecklingsverksamhet inom det kärntekniska området som inte bara elproducenterna utan även verkstadsindustrin i vårt land genomförde. Det var därför naturligt för mig att som objekt för min doktorsavhandling välja introduktionen av kärnkraften i Finland med speciell fokus på den inhemska verkstadsindustrins roll. Jag ställde följande forskningsfrågor: a. När och hur skedde introduktionen av kärnkraften i Finland? b. Vilka var orsakerna till och resultatet av denna introduktion? c. Vilken var den inhemska verkstadsindustrins roll? Ett grundligt studium av litteraturen inklusive mötesprotokoll och tidningsreferat samt personligen genomförda intervjuer med ett trettiotal av de verkliga aktörerna i den långa och komplicerade introduktionsprocessen ledde till en teori, vars riktighet jag anser mig ha kunnat bevisa. Den inhemska verkstadsindustrins roll var synnerligen central. Dess representanter lyckades, bl.a. refererande till erfarenheterna från utbyggnaden av vatten- och ångkraften liksom till byggandet av den underkritiska milan YXP samt forskningsreaktorn TRIGA, övertyga beslutsfattarna om att den besatt nödig kompetens för att kompensera den kompetensbrist som kunde iakttas inom vissa områden hos den sovjetiska kärnkraftverksleverantören. De inhemska leveranserna påverkade även driftsresultatet, speciellt i fallet Lovisa, i positiv riktning. Introduktionsprocessen, som omfattade tiden från slutet av 1950-talet till början på 1980-talet, beskrevs, noterande bl.a. J. W. Creswells anvisningar, i detalj i avhandlingen. Introduktionen fick som resultat konkurrenskraftig elkraft, impuls till start av nya företag, exempelvis Nokia Elektronik, liksom en klar höjning av den tekniska nivån hos vår industri, inkluderande kärnteknisk tillverkning i stor skala. Katastrofen i Tjernobyl i slutet av april 1986 innebar emellertid att utvecklingen tog en paus på ett par decennier. Erfarenheterna från introduktionsfasen kan förhoppningsvis utnyttjas till fullo nu, när utbyggnaden av kärnkraften återupptagits i vårt land.

Memristive Computing

Memristive computing refers to the utilization of the memristor, the fourth fundamental passive circuit element, in computational tasks. The existence of the memristor was theoretically predicted in 1971 by Leon O. Chua, but experimentally validated only in 2008 by HP Labs. A memristor is essentially a nonvolatile nanoscale programmable resistor — indeed, memory resistor — whose resistance, or memristance to be precise, is changed by applying a voltage across, or current through, the device. Memristive computing is a new area of research, and many of its fundamental questions still remain open. For example, it is yet unclear which applications would benefit the most from the inherent nonlinear dynamics of memristors. In any case, these dynamics should be exploited to allow memristors to perform computation in a natural way instead of attempting to emulate existing technologies such as CMOS logic. Examples of such methods of computation presented in this thesis are memristive stateful logic operations, memristive multiplication based on the translinear principle, and the exploitation of nonlinear dynamics to construct chaotic memristive circuits. This thesis considers memristive computing at various levels of abstraction. The first part of the thesis analyses the physical properties and the current-voltage behaviour of a single device. The middle part presents memristor programming methods, and describes microcircuits for logic and analog operations. The final chapters discuss memristive computing in largescale applications. In particular, cellular neural networks, and associative memory architectures are proposed as applications that significantly benefit from memristive implementation. The work presents several new results on memristor modeling and programming, memristive logic, analog arithmetic operations on memristors, and applications of memristors. The main conclusion of this thesis is that memristive computing will be advantageous in large-scale, highly parallel mixed-mode processing architectures. This can be justified by the following two arguments. First, since processing can be performed directly within memristive memory architectures, the required circuitry, processing time, and possibly also power consumption can be reduced compared to a conventional CMOS implementation. Second, intrachip communication can be naturally implemented by a memristive crossbar structure.

Particle model for simulating limestone reactions in novel fluidised bed energy applications

The development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) has raised interest towards novel fluidised bed (FB) energy applications. In these applications, limestone can be utilized for S02 and/or CO2 capture. The conditions in the new applications differ from the traditional atmospheric and pressurised circulating fluidised bed (CFB) combustion conditions in which the limestone is successfully used for SO2 capture. In this work, a detailed physical single particle model with a description of the mass and energy transfer inside the particle for limestone was developed. The novelty of this model was to take into account the simultaneous reactions, changing conditions, and the effect of advection. Especially, the capability to study the cyclic behaviour of limestone on both sides of the calcination-carbonation equilibrium curve is important in the novel conditions. The significances of including advection or assuming diffusion control were studied in calcination. Especially, the effect of advection in calcination reaction in the novel combustion atmosphere was shown. The model was tested against experimental data; sulphur capture was studied in a laboratory reactor in different fluidised bed conditions. Different Conversion levels and sulphation patterns were examined in different atmospheres for one limestone type. The Conversion curves were well predicted with the model, and the mechanisms leading to the Conversion patterns were explained with the model simulations. In this work, it was also evaluated whether the transient environment has an effect on the limestone behaviour compared to the averaged conditions and in which conditions the effect is the largest. The difference between the averaged and transient conditions was notable only in the conditions which were close to the calcination-carbonation equilibrium curve. The results of this study suggest that the development of a simplified particle model requires a proper understanding of physical and chemical processes taking place in the particle during the reactions. The results of the study will be required when analysing complex limestone reaction phenomena or when developing the description of limestone behaviour in comprehensive 3D process models. In order to transfer the experimental observations to furnace conditions, the relevant mechanisms that take place need to be understood before the important ones can be selected for 3D process model. This study revealed the sulphur capture behaviour under transient oxy-fuel conditions, which is important when the oxy-fuel CFB process and process model are developed.

Adaptive Dynamics of Resource Specialization

Ecological specialization in resource utilization has various facades ranging from nutritional resources via host use of parasites or phytophagous insects to local adaptation in different habitats. Therefore, the evolution of specialization affects the evolution of most other traits, which makes it one of the core issues in the theory of evolution. Hence, the evolution of specialization has gained enormous amounts of research interest, starting already from Darwin’s Origin of species in 1859. Vast majority of the theoretical studies has, however, focused on the mathematically most simple case with well-mixed populations and equilibrium dynamics. This thesis explores the possibilities to extend the evolutionary analysis of resource usage to spatially heterogeneous metapopulation models and to models with non-equilibrium dynamics. These extensions are enabled by the recent advances in the field of adaptive dynamics, which allows for a mechanistic derivation of the invasion-fitness function based on the ecological dynamics. In the evolutionary analyses, special focus is set to the case with two substitutable renewable resources. In this case, the most striking questions are, whether a generalist species is able to coexist with the two specialist species, and can such trimorphic coexistence be attained through natural selection starting from a monomorphic population. This is shown possible both due to spatial heterogeneity and due to non-equilibrium dynamics. In addition, it is shown that chaotic dynamics may sometimes inflict evolutionary suicide or cyclic evolutionary dynamics. Moreover, the relations between various ecological parameters and evolutionary dynamics are investigated. Especially, the relation between specialization and dispersal propensity turns out to be counter-intuitively non-monotonous. This observation served as inspiration to the analysis of joint evolution of dispersal and specialization, which may provide the most natural explanation to the observed coexistence of specialist and generalist species.