Comparing Basal Area Diameter Distributions Estimated by Tree Species and for the Entire Stock in a Mixed Stand

Summary

Degree of previous cutting in explaining the differences in diameter distributions between mature managed and natural Norway spruce forests

Abstract

Height distributions of Scots pine sapling stands affected by retained tree and edge stand competition

Abstract

Calibrating predicted tree diameter distributions in Catalonia, Spain

Abstract

Effect of Mechanical and Geometric Mismatching on Fatigue and Damage of Welded Joints

The future of high technology welded constructions will be characterised by higher strength materials and improved weld quality with respect to fatigue resistance. The expected implementation of high quality high strength steel welds will require that more attention be given to the issues of crack initiation and mechanical mismatching. Experiments and finite element analyses were performed within the framework of continuum damage mechanics to investigate the effect of mismatching of welded joints on void nucleation and coalescence during monotonic loading. It was found that the damage of undermatched joints mainly occurred in the sandwich layer and the damageresistance of the joints decreases with the decrease of the sandwich layer width. The damage of over-matched joints mainly occurred in the base metal adjacent to the sandwich layer and the damage resistance of the joints increases with thedecrease of the sandwich layer width. The mechanisms of the initiation of the micro voids/cracks were found to be cracking of the inclusions or the embrittled second phase, and the debonding of the inclusions from the matrix. Experimental fatigue crack growth rate testing showed that the fatigue life of under-matched central crack panel specimens is longer than that of over-matched and even-matched specimens. Further investigation by the elastic-plastic finite element analysis indicated that fatigue crack closure, which originated from the inhomogeneousyielding adjacent to the crack tip, played an important role in the fatigue crack propagation. The applicability of the J integral concept to the mismatched specimens with crack extension under cyclic loading was assessed. The concept of fatigue class used by the International Institute of Welding was introduced in the parametric numerical analysis of several welded joints. The effect of weld geometry and load condition on fatigue strength of ferrite-pearlite steel joints was systematically evaluated based on linear elastic fracture mechanics. Joint types included lap joints, angle joints and butt joints. Various combinations of the tensile and bending loads were considered during the evaluation with the emphasis focused on the existence of both root and toe cracks. For a lap joint with asmall lack-of-penetration, a reasonably large weld leg and smaller flank angle were recommended for engineering practice in order to achieve higher fatigue strength. It was found that the fatigue strength of the angle joint depended strongly on the location and orientation of the preexisting crack-like welding defects, even if the joint was welded with full penetration. It is commonly believed that the double sided butt welds can have significantly higher fatigue strength than that of a single sided welds, but fatigue crack initiation and propagation can originate from the weld root if the welding procedure results in a partial penetration. It is clearly shown that the fatigue strength of the butt joint could be improved remarkably by ensuring full penetration. Nevertheless, increasing the fatigue strength of a butt joint by increasing the size of the weld is an uneconomical alternative.

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.