Variation in forest fire ignition probability in Finland

Abstract

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Algorithmic Solutions for Combinatorial Problems in Resource Management of Manufacturing Environments

This thesis studies the use of heuristic algorithms in a number of combinatorial problems that occur in various resource constrained environments. Such problems occur, for example, in manufacturing, where a restricted number of resources (tools, machines, feeder slots) are needed to perform some operations. Many of these problems turn out to be computationally intractable, and heuristic algorithms are used to provide efficient, yet sub-optimal solutions. The main goal of the present study is to build upon existing methods to create new heuristics that provide improved solutions for some of these problems. All of these problems occur in practice, and one of the motivations of our study was the request for improvements from industrial sources. We approach three different resource constrained problems. The first is the tool switching and loading problem, and occurs especially in the assembly of printed circuit boards. This problem has to be solved when an efficient, yet small primary storage is used to access resources (tools) from a less efficient (but unlimited) secondary storage area. We study various forms of the problem and provide improved heuristics for its solution. Second, the nozzle assignment problem is concerned with selecting a suitable set of vacuum nozzles for the arms of a robotic assembly machine. It turns out that this is a specialized formulation of the MINMAX resource allocation formulation of the apportionment problem and it can be solved efficiently and optimally. We construct an exact algorithm specialized for the nozzle selection and provide a proof of its optimality. Third, the problem of feeder assignment and component tape construction occurs when electronic components are inserted and certain component types cause tape movement delays that can significantly impact the efficiency of printed circuit board assembly. Here, careful selection of component slots in the feeder improves the tape movement speed. We provide a formal proof that this problem is of the same complexity as the turnpike problem (a well studied geometric optimization problem), and provide a heuristic algorithm for this problem.

Algorithmic Techniques in Gene Expression Processing. From Imputation to Visualization

The amount of biological data has grown exponentially in recent decades. Modern biotechnologies, such as microarrays and next-generation sequencing, are capable to produce massive amounts of biomedical data in a single experiment. As the amount of the data is rapidly growing there is an urgent need for reliable computational methods for analyzing and visualizing it. This thesis addresses this need by studying how to efficiently and reliably analyze and visualize high-dimensional data, especially that obtained from gene expression microarray experiments. First, we will study the ways to improve the quality of microarray data by replacing (imputing) the missing data entries with the estimated values for these entries. Missing value imputation is a method which is commonly used to make the original incomplete data complete, thus making it easier to be analyzed with statistical and computational methods. Our novel approach was to use curated external biological information as a guide for the missing value imputation. Secondly, we studied the effect of missing value imputation on the downstream data analysis methods like clustering. We compared multiple recent imputation algorithms against 8 publicly available microarray data sets. It was observed that the missing value imputation indeed is a rational way to improve the quality of biological data. The research revealed differences between the clustering results obtained with different imputation methods. On most data sets, the simple and fast k-NN imputation was good enough, but there were also needs for more advanced imputation methods, such as Bayesian Principal Component Algorithm (BPCA). Finally, we studied the visualization of biological network data. Biological interaction networks are examples of the outcome of multiple biological experiments such as using the gene microarray techniques. Such networks are typically very large and highly connected, thus there is a need for fast algorithms for producing visually pleasant layouts. A computationally efficient way to produce layouts of large biological interaction networks was developed. The algorithm uses multilevel optimization within the regular force directed graph layout algorithm.