A Belief rule-based environmental responsibility assessment system for small and medium-sized enterprises

Various environmental management systems, standards and tools are being created to assist companies to become more environmental friendly. However, not all the enterprises have adopted environmental policies in the same scale and range. Additionally, there is no existing guide to help them determine their level of environmental responsibility and subsequently, provide support to enable them to move forward towards environmental responsibility excellence. This research proposes the use of a Belief Rule-Based approach to assess an enterprise’s level commitment to environmental issues. The Environmental Responsibility BRB assessment system has been developed for this research. Participating companies will have to complete a structured questionnaire. An automated analysis of their responses (using the Belief Rule-Based approach) will determine their environmental responsibility level. This is followed by a recommendation on how to progress to the next level. The recommended best practices will help promote understanding, increase awareness, and make the organization greener. BRB systems consist of two parts: Knowledge Base and Inference Engine. The knowledge base in this research is constructed after an in-depth literature review, critical analyses of existing environmental performance assessment models and primarily guided by the EU Draft Background Report on "Best Environmental Management Practice in the Telecommunications and ICT Services Sector". The reasoning algorithm of a selected Drools JBoss BRB inference engine is forward chaining, where an inference starts iteratively searching for a pattern-match of the input and if-then clause. However, the forward chaining mechanism is not equipped with uncertainty handling. Therefore, a decision is made to deploy an evidential reasoning and forward chaining with a hybrid knowledge representation inference scheme to accommodate imprecision, ambiguity and fuzzy types of uncertainties. It is believed that such a system generates well balanced, sensible and Green ICT readiness adapted results, to help enterprises focus on making improvements on more sustainable business operations.

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.