Arkistoluettelo 617: Kalevi Aho

Luettelo Kansalliskirjastossa olevan Kalevi Ahon arkiston sisällöstä

Lohkotilan kiinnitysvastuun rajoittaminen, 2K

Puhe

Competitiveness Comparison of the Electricity Production Alternatives

The competitiveness comparison is carried out for merely electricity producing alternatives. In Finland, further construction of CHP (combined heat and power) power plants will continue and cover part of the future power supply deficit, but also new condensing power plant capacity will be needed. The following types of power plants are studied: - nuclear power plant, - coal-fired condensing power plant - combined cycle gas turbine plant, - peat-fired condensing power plant. - wood-fired condensing power plant - wind power plant The calculations have been made using the annuity method with a real interest rate of 5 % perannum and with a fixed price level as of March 2003. With the annual full load utilization time of 8000 hours the nuclear electricity would cost 23,7 ¤/MWh, the gas based electricity 32,3 ¤/MWh and coal based electricity 28,1 ¤/MWh. If the influence of emission trading is taken into account,the advantage of the nuclear power will still be improved. Inorder to study the impact of changes in the input data, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out. It reveals that the advantage of the nuclear power is quite clear. E.g. the nuclear electricity is rather insensitive tothe changes of the uranium price, whereas for natural gas alternative the rising trend of gas price causes the greatest risk.

The effects of some variables on CO2 laser-MAG hybrid welding

The CO2-laser-MAG hybrid welding process has been shown to be a productive choice for the welding industry, being used in e.g. the shipbuilding, pipe and beam manufacturing, and automotive industries. It provides an opportunity to increase the productivity of welding of joints containing air gaps compared with autogenous laser beam welding, with associated reductions in distortion and marked increases in welding speeds and penetration in comparison with both arc and autogenous laser welding. The literature study indicated that the phenomena of laser hybrid welding are mostly being studied using bead-on-plate welding or zero air gap configurations. This study shows it very clearly that the CO2 laser-MAG hybrid welding process is completely different, when there is a groove with an air gap. As in case of industrial use it is excepted that welding is performed for non-zero grooves, this study is of great importance for industrial applications. The results of this study indicate that by using a 6 kW CO2 laser-MAG hybrid welding process, the welding speed may also be increased if an air gap is present in the joint. Experimental trials indicated that the welding speed may be increased by 30-82% when compared with bead-on-plate welding, or welding of a joint with no air gap i.e. a joint prepared as optimum for autogenous laser welding. This study demonstrates very clearly, that the separation of the different processes, as well as the relative configurations of the processes (arc leading or trailing) affect welding performance significantly. These matters influence the droplet size and therefore the metal transfer mode, which in turn determined the resulting weld quality and the ability to bridge air gaps. Welding in bead-onplate mode, or of an I butt joint containing no air gap joint is facilitated by using a leading torch. This is due to the preheating effect of the arc, which increases the absorptivity of the work piece to the laser beam, enabling greater penetration and the use of higher welding speeds. With an air gap present, air gap bridging is more effectively achieved by using a trailing torch because of the lower arc power needed, the wider arc, and the movement of droplets predominantly towards the joint edges. The experiments showed, that the mode of metal transfer has a marked effect on gap bridgeability. Transfer of a single droplet per arc pulse may not be desirable if an air gap is present, because most of the droplets are directed towards the middle of the joint where no base material is present. In such cases, undercut is observed. Pulsed globular and rotational metal transfer modes enable molten metal to also be transferred to the joint edges, and are therefore superior metal transfer modes when bridging air gaps. It was also found very obvious, that process separation is an important factor in gap bridgeability. If process separation is too large, the resulting weld often exhibits sagging, or no weld may be formed at all as a result of the reduced interaction between the component processes. In contrast, if the processes are too close to one another, the processing region contains excess molten metal that may create difficulties for the keyhole to remain open. When the distance is optimised - i.e. a separation of 0-4 mm in this study, depending on the welding speed and beam-arc configuration - the processes act together, creating beneficial synergistic effects. The optimum process separation when using a trailing torch was found to be shorter (0-2 mm) than when a leading torch is used (2-4 mm); a result of the facilitation of weld pool motion when the latter configuration is adopted. This study demonstrates, that the MAG process used has a strong effect on the CO2-laser-MAG hybrid welding process. The laser beam welding component is relatively stable and easy to manage, with only two principal processing parameters (power and welding speed) needing to be adjusted. In contrast, the MAG process has a large number of processing parameters to optimise, all of which play an important role in the interaction between the laser beam and the arc. The parameters used for traditional MAG welding are often not optimal in achieving the most appropriate mode of metal transfer, and weld quality in laser hybrid welding, and must be optimised if the full range of benefits provided by hybrid welding are to be realised.

Mallit metsämaan hiilivarastojen ennustajina

Seloste artikkelista: Peltoniemi, M., Thürig, E., Ogle, S., Palosuo, T., Schrumpf, M., Wutzler, T., Butterbach-Bahl, K., Chertov, O., Komarov, A., Mikhailov, A., Gärdenäs, A., Perry, C., Liski, J., Smith, P. & Mäkipää, R. 2007. Models in country scale carbon accounting of forest soils. Silva Fennica 4 (3): 575-602.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)

De virtute Mahumedis, aquam ex arena vel petra eliciendi

Dedicatio: Jacobus Tengström.

Animadversiones in fennicam Bibliorum Sacrorum versionem

Arkit: 1 arkintunnukseton lehti, B4 C3.