Demand forecasting process design and methods in medium sized enterprise

The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes and management of demand. In literature review were different processes found and forecasting methods and techniques interviewed. Also role of bullwhip effect in supply chain was identified and how to manage it with information sharing operations. In the empirical part of study is at first described current situation and challenges in case company. After that will new way to handle demand introduced with target budget creation and how information sharing with 5 products and a few customers would bring benefits to company. Also the new S&OP process created within this study and organization for it.

Comparison and problems between Traditional and Agile software development methods

In today’s world because of the rapid advancement in the field of technology and business, the requirements are not clear, and they are changing continuously in the development process. Due to those changes in the requirements the software development becomes very difficult. Use of traditional software development methods such as waterfall method is not a good option, as the traditional software development methods are not flexible to requirements and the software can be late and over budget. For developing high quality software that satisfies the customer, the organizations can use software development methods, such as agile methods which are flexible to change requirements at any stage in the development process. The agile methods are iterative and incremental methods that can accelerate the delivery of the initial business values through the continuous planning and feedback, and there is close communication between the customer and developers. The main purpose of the current thesis is to find out the problems in traditional software development and to show how agile methods reduced those problems in software development. The study also focuses the different success factors of agile methods, the success rate of agile projects and comparison between traditional and agile software development.

Digitization Project of Kindred Languages : materials, methods and tools for researchers

Presentation at "Soome-ugri keelte andmebaasid ja e-leksikograafia" at Eesti Keele Instituut (Institution of Estonian Languages) in Tallnn on the 18th of November 2014.

Application and development of numerical methods for the modelling of innovative gas cooled fission reactors

Innovative gas cooled reactors, such as the pebble bed reactor (PBR) and the gas cooled fast reactor (GFR) offer higher efficiency and new application areas for nuclear energy. Numerical methods were applied and developed to analyse the specific features of these reactor types with fully three dimensional calculation models. In the first part of this thesis, discrete element method (DEM) was used for a physically realistic modelling of the packing of fuel pebbles in PBR geometries and methods were developed for utilising the DEM results in subsequent reactor physics and thermal-hydraulics calculations. In the second part, the flow and heat transfer for a single gas cooled fuel rod of a GFR were investigated with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods. An in-house DEM implementation was validated and used for packing simulations, in which the effect of several parameters on the resulting average packing density was investigated. The restitution coefficient was found out to have the most significant effect. The results can be utilised in further work to obtain a pebble bed with a specific packing density. The packing structures of selected pebble beds were also analysed in detail and local variations in the packing density were observed, which should be taken into account especially in the reactor core thermal-hydraulic analyses. Two open source DEM codes were used to produce stochastic pebble bed configurations to add realism and improve the accuracy of criticality calculations performed with the Monte Carlo reactor physics code Serpent. Russian ASTRA criticality experiments were calculated. Pebble beds corresponding to the experimental specifications within measurement uncertainties were produced in DEM simulations and successfully exported into the subsequent reactor physics analysis. With the developed approach, two typical issues in Monte Carlo reactor physics calculations of pebble bed geometries were avoided. A novel method was developed and implemented as a MATLAB code to calculate porosities in the cells of a CFD calculation mesh constructed over a pebble bed obtained from DEM simulations. The code was further developed to distribute power and temperature data accurately between discrete based reactor physics and continuum based thermal-hydraulics models to enable coupled reactor core calculations. The developed method was also found useful for analysing sphere packings in general. CFD calculations were performed to investigate the pressure losses and heat transfer in three dimensional air cooled smooth and rib roughened rod geometries, housed inside a hexagonal flow channel representing a sub-channel of a single fuel rod of a GFR. The CFD geometry represented the test section of the L-STAR experimental facility at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology and the calculation results were compared to the corresponding experimental results. Knowledge was gained of the adequacy of various turbulence models and of the modelling requirements and issues related to the specific application. The obtained pressure loss results were in a relatively good agreement with the experimental data. Heat transfer in the smooth rod geometry was somewhat under predicted, which can partly be explained by unaccounted heat losses and uncertainties. In the rib roughened geometry heat transfer was severely under predicted by the used realisable k − epsilon turbulence model. An additional calculation with a v2 − f turbulence model showed significant improvement in the heat transfer results, which is most likely due to the better performance of the model in separated flow problems. Further investigations are suggested before using CFD to make conclusions of the heat transfer performance of rib roughened GFR fuel rod geometries. It is suggested that the viewpoints of numerical modelling are included in the planning of experiments to ease the challenging model construction and simulations and to avoid introducing additional sources of uncertainties. To facilitate the use of advanced calculation approaches, multi-physical aspects in experiments should also be considered and documented in a reasonable detail.

The estimation of tuberculosis transmission parameters using ABC and MCMC methods

The aim of this work is to apply approximate Bayesian computation in combination with Marcov chain Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the parameters of tuberculosis transmission. The methods are applied to San Francisco data and the results are compared with the outcomes of previous works. Moreover, a methodological idea with the aim to reduce computational time is also described. Despite the fact that this approach is proved to work in an appropriate way, further analysis is needed to understand and test its behaviour in different cases. Some related suggestions to its further enhancement are described in the corresponding chapter.

Radio-frequency-based measurement methods for bearing current analysis in induction motors

The most common reason for a low-voltage induction motor breakdown is a bearing failure. Along with the increasing popularity of modern frequency converters, bearing failures have become the most important motor fault type. Conditions in which bearing currents are likely to occur are generated as a side effect of fast du/dt switching transients. Once present, different types of bearing currents can accelerate the mechanical wear of bearings by causing deformation of metal parts in the bearing and degradation of the lubricating oil properties.The bearing current phenomena are well known, and several bearing current measurement and mitigation methods have been proposed. Nevertheless, in order to develop more feasible methods to measure and mitigate bearing currents, better knowledge of the phenomena is required. When mechanical wear is caused by bearing currents, the resulting aging impact has to be monitored and dealt with. Moreover, because of the stepwise aging mechanism, periodically executed condition monitoring measurements have been found ineffective. Thus, there is a need for feasible bearing current measurement methods that can be applied in parallel with the normal operation of series production drive systems. In order to reach the objectives of feasibility and applicability, nonintrusive measurement methods are preferred. In this doctoral dissertation, the characteristics and conditions of bearings that are related to the occurrence of different kinds of bearing currents are studied. Further, the study introduces some nonintrusive radio-frequency-signal-based approaches to detect and measure parameters that are associated with the accelerated bearing wear caused by bearing currents.

Study of Control Methods of a High-Frequency Cycloconverter for Domestic Induction Heating Appliances

A high-frequency cyclonverter acts as a direct ac-to-ac power converter circuit that does not require a diode bidge rectifier. Bridgeless topology makes it possible to remove forward voltage drop losses that are present in a diode bridge. In addition, the on-state losses can be reduced to 1.5 times the on-state resistance of switches in half-bridge operation of the cycloconverter. A high-frequency cycloconverter is reviewed and the charging effect of the dc-capacitors in ``back-to-back'' or synchronous mode operation operation is analyzed. In addition, a control method is introduced for regulating dc-voltage of the ac-side capacitors in synchronous operation mode. The controller regulates the dc-capacitors and prevents switches from reaching overvoltage level. This can be accomplished by variating phase-shift between the upper and the lower gate signals. By adding phase-shift between the gate signal pairs, the charge stored in the energy storage capacitors can be discharged through the resonant load and substantially, the output resonant current amplitude can be improved. The above goals are analyzed and illustrated with simulation. Theory is supported with practical measurements where the proposed control method is implemented in an FPGA device and tested with a high-frequency cycloconverter using super-junction power MOSFETs as switching devices.

Advanced analysis and design methods for preparative chromatographic separation processes

Preparative liquid chromatography is one of the most selective separation techniques in the fine chemical, pharmaceutical, and food industries. Several process concepts have been developed and applied for improving the performance of classical batch chromatography. The most powerful approaches include various single-column recycling schemes, counter-current and cross-current multi-column setups, and hybrid processes where chromatography is coupled with other unit operations such as crystallization, chemical reactor, and/or solvent removal unit. To fully utilize the potential of stand-alone and integrated chromatographic processes, efficient methods for selecting the best process alternative as well as optimal operating conditions are needed. In this thesis, a unified method is developed for analysis and design of the following singlecolumn fixed bed processes and corresponding cross-current schemes: (1) batch chromatography, (2) batch chromatography with an integrated solvent removal unit, (3) mixed-recycle steady state recycling chromatography (SSR), and (4) mixed-recycle steady state recycling chromatography with solvent removal from fresh feed, recycle fraction, or column feed (SSR–SR). The method is based on the equilibrium theory of chromatography with an assumption of negligible mass transfer resistance and axial dispersion. The design criteria are given in general, dimensionless form that is formally analogous to that applied widely in the so called triangle theory of counter-current multi-column chromatography. Analytical design equations are derived for binary systems that follow competitive Langmuir adsorption isotherm model. For this purpose, the existing analytic solution of the ideal model of chromatography for binary Langmuir mixtures is completed by deriving missing explicit equations for the height and location of the pure first component shock in the case of a small feed pulse. It is thus shown that the entire chromatographic cycle at the column outlet can be expressed in closed-form. The developed design method allows predicting the feasible range of operating parameters that lead to desired product purities. It can be applied for the calculation of first estimates of optimal operating conditions, the analysis of process robustness, and the early-stage evaluation of different process alternatives. The design method is utilized to analyse the possibility to enhance the performance of conventional SSR chromatography by integrating it with a solvent removal unit. It is shown that the amount of fresh feed processed during a chromatographic cycle and thus the productivity of SSR process can be improved by removing solvent. The maximum solvent removal capacity depends on the location of the solvent removal unit and the physical solvent removal constraints, such as solubility, viscosity, and/or osmotic pressure limits. Usually, the most flexible option is to remove solvent from the column feed. Applicability of the equilibrium design for real, non-ideal separation problems is evaluated by means of numerical simulations. Due to assumption of infinite column efficiency, the developed design method is most applicable for high performance systems where thermodynamic effects are predominant, while significant deviations are observed under highly non-ideal conditions. The findings based on the equilibrium theory are applied to develop a shortcut approach for the design of chromatographic separation processes under strongly non-ideal conditions with significant dispersive effects. The method is based on a simple procedure applied to a single conventional chromatogram. Applicability of the approach for the design of batch and counter-current simulated moving bed processes is evaluated with case studies. It is shown that the shortcut approach works the better the higher the column efficiency and the lower the purity constraints are.

Statistical segmentation methods and color variance analysis of retinal images

In this research, the effectiveness of Naive Bayes and Gaussian Mixture Models classifiers on segmenting exudates in retinal images is studied and the results are evaluated with metrics commonly used in medical imaging. Also, a color variation analysis of retinal images is carried out to find how effectively can retinal images be segmented using only the color information of the pixels.

Novel virtual environment and real-time simulation based methods for improving life-cycle efficiency of non-road mobile machinery

Virtual environments and real-time simulators (VERS) are becoming more and more important tools in research and development (R&D) process of non-road mobile machinery (NRMM). The virtual prototyping techniques enable faster and more cost-efficient development of machines compared to use of real life prototypes. High energy efficiency has become an important topic in the world of NRMM because of environmental and economic demands. The objective of this thesis is to develop VERS based methods for research and development of NRMM. A process using VERS for assessing effects of human operators on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM was developed. Human in the loop simulations are ran using an underground mining loader to study the developed process. The simulations were ran in the virtual environment of the Laboratory of Intelligent Machines of Lappeenranta University of Technology. A physically adequate real-time simulation model of NRMM was shown to be reliable and cost effective in testing of hardware components by the means of hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations. A control interface connecting integrated electro-hydraulic energy converter (IEHEC) with virtual simulation model of log crane was developed. IEHEC consists of a hydraulic pump-motor and an integrated electrical permanent magnet synchronous motorgenerator. The results show that state of the art real-time NRMM simulators are capable to solve factors related to energy consumption and productivity of the NRMM. A significant variation between the test drivers is found. The results show that VERS can be used for assessing human effects on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM. HIL simulation responses compared to that achieved with conventional simulation method demonstrate the advances and drawbacks of various possible interfaces between the simulator and hardware part of the system under study. Novel ideas for arranging the interface are successfully tested and compared with the more traditional one. The proposed process for assessing the effects of operators on the life-cycle efficiency will be applied for wider group of operators in the future. Driving styles of the operators can be analysed statistically from sufficient large result data. The statistical analysis can find the most life-cycle efficient driving style for the specific environment and machinery. The proposed control interface for HIL simulation need to be further studied. The robustness and the adaptation of the interface in different situations must be verified. The future work will also include studying the suitability of the IEHEC for different working machines using the proposed HIL simulation method.

Balancing the quotation process by LEAN methods

This thesis studies the possibility to use lean tools and methods in a quotation process which is carried out in an office environment. The aim of the study was to find out and test the relevant lean tools and methods which can help to balance and standardize the quotation process, and reduce the variance in quotation lead times and in quality. Seminal works, researches and guide books related to the topic were used as the basis for the theory development. Based on the literature review and the case company’s own lean experience, the applicable lean tools and methods were selected to be tested by a sales support team. Leveling production, by product categorization and value stream mapping, was a key method to be used to balance the quotation process. 5S method was started concurrently for standardizing the work. Results of the testing period showed that lean tools and methods are applicable in office process and selected tools and methods helped to balance and standardize the quotation process. Case company’s sales support team decided to implement new lean based quotation process model.

Lean Methods and Digital Technologies in Healtchare

The experiences of several healthcare organizations were considered to distinguish the most frequently used lean tools, the success and failure factors, and the obstacles that may appear while implementing lean. As a result, two approaches to “go lean” were defined, and analyzed from the prospective of the applicability to healthcare processes. Industrialization of healthcare was studied, and the most promising digital technology tools to improve healthcare process were highlighted. Finally, the analysis of healthcare challenges and feasible ways to address them was conducted and presented as the main result of this work. The possible ways of implementation of the findings and limitations were described in the conclusion.

Power efficiency estimation and simulation of different control methods for the rotary screw compressor

Nowadays the energy efficiency has become one of the most concerned topics. Compressors are the equipment, which is very common in industry. Moreover, they tend to operate during long cycles and therefore even small decrease in power consumption can significantly reduce electricity costs during the year. And therefore it is important to investigate ways of increasing the energy efficiency of the compressors. In the thesis rotary screw compressor alongside with different control approaches is described. Simulation models for various control types of rotary screw compressor are developed. Analysis of laboratory equipment is conducted and results are compared with simulation. Suggestions of the real laboratory equipment improvement are given.

New methods for controlling twin configurations and characterizing twin boundaries in 5M Ni-Mn-Ga for the development of applications

Traditional methods for studying the magnetic shape memory (MSM) alloys Ni-Mn-Ga include subjecting the entire sample to a uniform magnetic field or completely actuating the sample mechanically. These methods have produced significant results in characterizing the MSM effect, the properties of Ni-Mn-Ga and have pioneered the development of applications from this material. Twin boundaries and their configuration within a Ni-Mn-Ga sample are a key component in the magnetic shape memory effect. Applications that are developed require an understanding of twin boundary characteristics and, more importantly, the ability to predictably control them. Twins have such a critical role that the twinning stress of a Ni-Mn-Ga crystal is the defining characteristic that indicates its quality and significant research has been conducted to minimize this property. This dissertation reports a decrease in the twinning stress, predictably controlling the twin configuration and characterizing the dynamics of twin boundaries. A reduction of the twinning stress is demonstrated by the discovery of Type II twins within Ni-Mn-Ga which have as little as 10% of the twinning stress of traditional Type I twins. Furthermore, new methods of actuating a Ni-Mn-Ga element using localized unidirectional or bidirectional magnetic fields were developed that can predictably control the twin configuration in a localized area of a Ni-Mn-Ga element. This method of controlling the local twin configuration was used in the characterization of twin boundary dynamics. Using a localized magnetic pulse, the velocity and acceleration of a single twin boundary were measured to be 82.5 m/s and 2.9 × 107 m/s2, and the time needed for the twin boundary to nucleate and begin moving was less than 2.8 μs. Using a bidirectional magnetic field from a diametrically magnetized cylindrical magnet, a highly reproducible and controllable local twin configuration was created in a Ni-Mn-Ga element which is the fundamental pumping mechanism in the MSM micropump that has been co-invented and extensively characterized by the author.